Indonesia

Critically Insufficient4°C+
World
Commitments with this rating fall well outside the fair share range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government targets were in this range, warming would exceed 4°C.
Highly insufficient< 4°C
World
Commitments with this rating fall outside the fair share range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government targets were in this range, warming would reach between 3°C and 4°C.
Insufficient< 3°C
World
Commitments with this rating are in the least stringent part of their fair share range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government targets were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.
2°C Compatible< 2°C
World
Commitments with this rating are consistent with the 2009 Copenhagen 2°C goal and therefore fall within the country’s fair share range, but are not fully consistent with the Paris Agreement. If all government targets were in this range, warming could be held below, but not well below, 2°C and still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit.
1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible< 1.5°C
World
This rating indicates that a government’s efforts are in the most stringent part of its fair share range: it is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.
Role model<< 1.5°C
World
This rating indicates that a government’s efforts are more ambitious than what is considered a fair contribution: it is more than consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

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Overview

Indonesia’s emissions have increased at a faster rate than previously and might even double by 2030 under current policy projections when compared to 2014 values. Its energy policy is out of step with global trends where renewable energy has overtaken coal. Even in the Southeast Asian region, coal investments have decreased in most countries that are still planning coal additions but not in Indonesia.

Its updated energy plan, released in 2018, foresees overall lower coal capacity additions than previously stated, but still adds 27 GW of coal-fired power in the next ten years and only 15 GW of renewables over the same period. Planned capacity additions for both gas and renewables have been slashed in favour of coal, and most of the planned renewables come in well after 2020, while a significant share of the planned coal will be commissioned between 2018 and 2022. Between 2012 and 2017, Indonesia’s coal capacity has already increased by 12.2 GW compared to 1.6 GW of renewable energy. By continuing on this high carbon path, Indonesia is risking significant stranded assets in both domestic coal production and coal power plants.

In addition, there has been an increase in forestry-related emissions. Indonesia has since 2005 worked on improving its forest and peatland governance and management by creating task forces and establishing clear mitigation plans. Emissions are still projected to increase in the next years. Halting LULUCF emissions is paramount, considering the contribution of this sector to the NDC targets and the fact that Indonesia is the biggest LULUCF emitter in the world.

The Indonesian NDC target for non-LULUCF sectors, rated “Highly insufficient”, is likely to be overachieved under current policy projections, but can be strengthened considering the already existing national renewable targets.

Indonesia’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) includes a target of reducing GHG emissions including land, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) by 29% or 41% conditional on international support below BAU in 2030 (roughly equivalent to doubling today emissions levels) See pledges and targets section for full details and analysis of target. Based on this target, we rate Indonesia’s target excl. LULUCF “Highly insufficient” (see Fair Share section).

While Indonesia’s relative reductions below business-as-usual (BAU) anchored in its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) sound ambitious, a second look reveals a different picture for two reasons: first, Indonesia aims to meet a large share of its commitments through reductions (around 60%) in the forestry sector. This means that other sectors will see substantially lower relative reductions of emissions below BAU. Second, the BAU for the targets projects an increase substantially above our projections under current policies. In fact, Indonesia will achieve its targets (excl. forestry) without any additional efforts while still doubling today’s emissions. (See Current Policy Projections section for full detail).

The National Energy Policy (NEP), also mentioned in the NDC, has a target to increase renewable energy to 23% of total primary energy supply (TPES) by 2025. If Indonesia achieved this share, it would exceed its NDC target. Indonesia’s NDC could be easily strengthened by explicitly including the envisioned share of renewable energy. Under current policies, Indonesia will not yet meet the NEP target.

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