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Since our last assessment in 2017, the Russian Federation has made little progress in climate action implementation—indeed, the government is delaying the adoption of ambitious climate targets and policies, which has led to the Russian Federation being the only big emitter that has not yet ratified the Paris Agreement. Their national strategy may delay ratification until at least 2019.
With this approach, the Russian economy is at risk of losing global competitiveness in the medium to long term in a market that is moving fast towards the development of low-carbon technologies. While it is more than likely that Russia will achieve its INDC target, the target is so weak that it would not require a decrease in GHG emissions from current levels—nor would it require the Government to adopt a low-carbon economic development strategy. As a result, we have given Russia our lowest rating: “Critically Insufficient.”
According to our latest estimates, Russia’s currently implemented policies will lead to emissions of 2.6 GtCO2e in 2020 and 2.7GtCO2e in 2030 (both excluding LULUCF), which is 4% and 11% above 2015 emissions levels, respectively. This represents a decrease in emissions from 1990 levels of 28% in 2020 and 23% in 2030, all below the INDC targets, which allow emissions to grow 8–27% above 2015 levels by 2020 and 18–25% by 2030.
A first step towards contributing to the Paris Agreement’s goals would be to speed up the national process for ratification of the Agreement and present a 2030 target which sets out actual emissions reductions beyond the current policy scenario. This would not only be more credible from an international perspective but would also help to align national policy developments with the long-term emission reductions needed to avoid dangerous levels of climate change.