This assessment includes our policy analysis from 30 July 2020 translated into our new rating methodology without new analysis of Morocco climate policies since then, except the NDC update submitted in July 2021. We will fully analyse Morocco in the coming months and the rating may change.
The CAT rates Morocco’s climate targets and policies as “Almost sufficient”. The “Almost sufficient” rating indicates that Morocco’s climate policies and commitments are not yet consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit but could be with moderate improvements.
Morocco’s policies and unconditional target meet its fair-share contribution to limiting warming to 1.5°C. Morocco’s conditional target, to be achieved with international support, is almost, but not yet compatible with 1.5°C of warming, and should be strengthened. Morocco should receive international support to implement additional policies and go slightly beyond its current conditional target.
We rate Morocco’s policies and actions as “1.5°C Paris Agreement compatible” compared to its fair share contribution. The “1.5°C Paris Agreement compatible” rating indicates that Morocco’s climate policies and action are consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. Morocco’s climate policies and action do not require other countries to make comparably deeper reductions. When compared to modelled domestic pathways, the policies and action are not yet sufficient for getting on a decarbonisation pathway. Morocco should embark on such a pathway—with international support.
Morocco has put forward a detailed list of measures it will deploy to reach its updated NDC target issued in June 2021, separated into conditional and unconditional measures, with many of them already under implementation.
However, there are measures that could jeopardise long-term decarbonisation and lead to either a lock-in of emissions or stranded assets, with the new NDC including plans to build additional natural gas infrastructure. The Moroccan electricity mix also continues to rely heavily on coal, which supplied over two-thirds of electricity demand in 2019. By 2040, coal-based electricity needs to be phased out globally, and much earlier for many regions. For the Middle East and Africa region, coal-based electricity would need to be reduced by 80% in 2030 (compared to 2010) and phased out by 2034.
The full policies and action analysis can be found here.
We rate Morocco’s internationally supported reduction target (its conditional NDC) “Almost Sufficient” when compared with modelled domestic emissions pathways. The “Almost Sufficient” rating indicates that Morocco’s internationally supported target in 2030 is not yet consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit but could be, with moderate improvements. If all countries were to follow Morocco’s approach, warming could be held below—but not well below—2°C.
We rate the reduction target as “1.5°C Paris Agreement compatible” when compared with its fair-share contribution to climate action. The “1.5°C Paris Agreement compatible” rating indicates that Morocco’s fair share target is consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. Morocco’s fair share target does not require other countries to make comparably deeper reductions or greater effort and is in the most stringent part of its Fair Share range. Most studies that calculate Morocco’s equitable contribution to climate change mitigation result in increasing emissions allowances above today, still throughout 2030, at higher levels than projected emissions.
Morocco does not have a net zero target.