Norway

Critically Insufficient4°C+
World
Commitments with this rating fall well outside the fair share range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government targets were in this range, warming would exceed 4°C.
Highly insufficient< 4°C
World
Commitments with this rating fall outside the fair share range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government targets were in this range, warming would reach between 3°C and 4°C.
Insufficient< 3°C
World
Commitments with this rating are in the least stringent part of their fair share range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government targets were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.
2°C Compatible< 2°C
World
Commitments with this rating are consistent with the 2009 Copenhagen 2°C goal and therefore fall within the country’s fair share range, but are not fully consistent with the Paris Agreement. If all government targets were in this range, warming could be held below, but not well below, 2°C and still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit.
1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible< 1.5°C
World
This rating indicates that a government’s efforts are in the most stringent part of its fair share range: it is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.
Role model<< 1.5°C
World
This rating indicates that a government’s efforts are more ambitious than what is considered a fair contribution: it is more than consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Assessment

The Norwegian government is taking some big steps on climate, but it still has a way to go. It has decided to phase out its Government Pension Fund investing in companies dealing with oil and gas exploration and production, with some of the resources to instead be invested in unlisted renewable energy projects. Norway also continues to lead the world with its record share of electric cars; in 2018 almost every second new car sold in Norway was electric. However, the overall figure is still at 7.9% of all cars.

Norway’s long term, 2050 goal of becoming a “low carbon society” has been engrained in legislation, described as a 80-95% reduction below 1990 levels. Its 2030 target of “at least 40%” is less ambitious. It also states it wants to achieve “emissions neutrality” by 2030 but it remains unclear as to how much of this is domestic action, how much through forest sinks, and how much through emissions trading. And while the targets appear ambitious, its emissions are projected to decrease by only 7% by 2030. We therefore rate Norway’s currently implemented policies as “Highly insufficient.”

Norway’s currently implemented policies are not consistent with the Paris Agreement, and are instead consistent with warming between 3°C and 4°C if all others followed a similar level of ambition.

We rate Norway’s unconditional NDC “Insufficient,” and hence not consistent with limiting warming below 2°C, let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit, unless other countries make much deeper reductions and comparably greater effort. If unconditional, we would rate the climate neutrality goal by 2030 “2° Paris compatible.”

Norway’s electricity generation is almost exclusively renewable: in 2017 almost 96% of electricity was generated by hydro power plants and around 2% from wind farms. Only 2.3% of generation was from thermal power plants, mostly in industrial heat processes.

Norway is home to the biggest hydrocarbon reserves in Europe, making it the 5th largest exporter of crude oil in the world, and its offshore drilling activities have been subject to a carbon tax since 1991. In 1999, these were increased, and in 2005 Norway joined the EU ETS. By 2018 around 80% of greenhouse gas emissions were taxed, with the highest tax charged on domestic aviation and mineral oil.

While the decarbonisation of Norway’s transport system is one of the three main goals of its National Transport Plan 2018–2029, the majority of the NOK 67.5 billion (USD 8.1 billion) allocated to the transport budget in 2018 still flowed into construction and improvement of roads and highways. However, there was a notable acceleration of investment into railways (5.7%) and a near doubling of investment into public transport projects.

In 2018 battery electric vehicles reached a 31 % market share. Plug-in hybrids have a market share of almost 18 %. The increasing share of electric cars in new sales has an impact on the overall share of zero emissions vehicles: by the end of March over 7.9% of all passenger cars in Norway were zero emissions vehicles, an increase from 7.2% at the end of 2018. In the first quarter of 2019 the share of newly sold electric vehicles reached 61%, more than three quarter of which were battery electric vehicles.

Norway has a substantial carbon sink in its forests - equal to around half of Norway’s annual emissions. Forest cover has been increasing. The volume of growing wood stock increased between 2008-2017 by over 23%. According to the national forestry accounting plan, between 2021-2025 Norway’s average removal from this sector will amount to slightly over 24 MtCO2e.

In addition, Norway has pledged up to NOK 3 billion ($343 million) a year in the framework of the Norway’s International Climate and Forest Initiative (NICFI) to reduce deforestation in other countries.

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