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The Storting (Norwegian Parliament) passed a Climate Law on 16 June 2017 that establishes legally binding emissions reduction targets for 2030 and 2050. The law came into effect on 1 January 2018 and aims for Norway to achieve “carbon neutrality” by 2050, in quantitative terms - defined as a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 80–95% below 1990 emission levels (UNFCCC, 2018). This law has been complemented by an increased budget allocation to the Ministry of Climate and Environment of NOK 10.5 billion, an increase from 2017 of NOK 0.7 billion. Currently implemented policies are projected to decrease emissions by 6% in 2030 below 1990 levels – a far cry from Norway’s 2030 target of “at least 40%” and “Highly insufficient” , meaning currently implemented policies are not consistent with the Paris Agreement, and are instead consistent with warming between 3°C and 4°C:
Norway signed and ratified the Paris Agreement on 20 June 2016. Norway’s NDC includes a target of reducing GHG emissions by “at least 40%” below 1990 levels in 2030, thus aligning itself with the European Union’s target. The inclusion of emissions and removals from the land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector was made dependent on the EU’s approach to this issue.
We rate the unconditional NDC of Norway “Insufficient,” and hence not consistent with limiting warming below 2°C, let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit, unless other countries make much deeper reductions and comparably greater effort. The climate neutrality goal by 2030 would be rated “2° Paris compatible.” While Norway claims its NDC is “fair,” we consider it has been mistaken in the calculations it has used to arrive at this statement.