Norway

Critically Insufficient4°C+
World
Commitments with this rating fall well outside the fair share range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government targets were in this range, warming would exceed 4°C.
Highly insufficient< 4°C
World
Commitments with this rating fall outside the fair share range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government targets were in this range, warming would reach between 3°C and 4°C.
Insufficient< 3°C
World
Commitments with this rating are in the least stringent part of their fair share range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government targets were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.
2°C Compatible< 2°C
World
Commitments with this rating are consistent with the 2009 Copenhagen 2°C goal and therefore fall within the country’s fair share range, but are not fully consistent with the Paris Agreement. If all government targets were in this range, warming could be held below, but not well below, 2°C and still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit.
1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible< 1.5°C
World
This rating indicates that a government’s efforts are in the most stringent part of its fair share range: it is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.
Role model<< 1.5°C
World
This rating indicates that a government’s efforts are more ambitious than what is considered a fair contribution: it is more than consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

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Overview

We rate Norway’s currently implemented policies “Highly insufficient” - emissions are projected to decrease by only 7% in 2030—a far cry from its 2030 NDC target of “at least 40%” below 1990 levels. Norway’s currently implemented policies are not consistent with the Paris Agreement, and are instead consistent with warming between 3°C and 4°C if all others followed a similar level of ambition.

On the positive side, Norway’s climate law, which aims to achieve “carbon neutrality” by 2050, has been complemented by an increased budget allocation to the Ministry of Climate and Environment of NOK 10.5 billion (USD 1.22 billion), up by NOK 0.7 billion (USD 81 million) since 2017. Norway continues with world record share in electric cars; by end of 2018 every second new car sold in Norway is electric.

Norway signed and ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016. Norway’s Paris Agreement Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) includes a target of reducing GHG emissions by “at least 40%” below 1990 levels in 2030, thus aligning itself with the European Union’s target.

We rate Norway’s unconditional NDC “Insufficient,” and hence not consistent with limiting warming below 2°C, let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit, unless other countries make much deeper reductions and comparably greater effort. If unconditional, we would rate the climate neutrality goal by 2030 “2° Paris compatible.”

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