This assessment includes our policy analysis for Ethiopia from 30 July 2020 translated into our new rating methodology. We have revised our target section to take into consideration the final NDC update submission made by Ethiopia in July 2021. We have revised our historical emissions estimates based on the data provided by Ethiopia in its final NDC update. We have also revised our current policy projections to take into account the revised historical and business-as-usual projections data provided in the NDC update and updated GDP data for the impacts of the pandemics; however, we have not undertaken any further analysis of climate policies. We will analyse Ethiopia fully in the coming months, at which time its ratings may change.
The CAT rates Ethiopia’s climate targets and policies as “Almost Sufficient”. The “Almost sufficient” rating indicates that Ethiopia’s climate commitments are not yet consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit but could be with moderate improvements.
Ethiopia’s policies and unconditional target (“fair share target”) meet its fair-share contribution to limiting warming to 1.5°C. However, Ethiopia’s conditional target (“internationally supported target”) is currently only compatible with 4°C of warming, and should be strengthened. Ethiopia needs additional support to implement additional policies and meet its conditional target.
The CAT rates Ethiopia’s policies and action as “1.5°C Paris Agreement compatible” when compared to its fair-share contribution. The “1.5°C Paris Agreement compatible” rating indicates that Ethiopia’s climate policies and action are consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. Ethiopia’s climate policies and action do not require other countries to make comparably deeper reductions.
Ethiopia will achieve both its unconditional and conditional targets if current policies are fully implemented.
While Ethiopia rates well when compared to what its fair share contribution is, its policies and action are not sufficient when compared with what modelled domestic pathways based on global least cost pathways say should be occurring within its borders. From this perspective, Ethiopia needs to implement more stringent policies and it will need additional support to do so. Such action would be bolstered by adopting a stronger conditional target.
In its updated NDC, Ethiopia has committed to reduce emissions by 68.8% below a revised BAU (incl. LULUCF) conditional on international support. It will achieve a portion of these reductions unconditionally, using its own resources.
The CAT rates Ethiopia’s conditional target as “Highly insufficient” when compared to modelled domestic pathways. The “Highly insufficient” rating indicates that Ethiopia’s internationally supported target in 2030 leads to rising, rather than falling, emissions and is not at all consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit. If all countries were to follow Ethiopia’s approach, warming could reach over 3°C and up to 4°C.
Ethiopia intends to achieve this target primarily through reductions in its land sector emissions. Yet, Ethiopia cannot ignore the growth in emissions in other sectors. It needs to strengthen its updated conditional target further and will need additional support to achieve this target.
The CAT rates Ethiopia’s unconditional target as “1.5°C Paris Agreement compatible”. The “1.5°C Paris Agreement compatible” rating indicates that Ethiopia’s fair share target is consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. Ethiopia’s fair share target does not require other countries to make comparably deeper reductions or greater effort, and is in the most stringent part of its Fair Share range.
Land use and forestry are a significant source of Ethiopia’s emissions. Ethiopia intends to achieve these targets primarily (around 85%) through reductions in its land sector emissions (Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, 2021).
Ethiopia intends to become carbon neutral without specifying a target year (FDRE, 2015). Ethiopia is in the process of developing a long-term strategy under the 2050 Pathways Platform, an initiative that supports countries develop long-term net zero pathways (2050 Pathways Platform, 2019). Our assessment of this net zero target will follow later in the year.