Iran has suffered from an economic crisis resulting from both the international sanctions that have been in place since 2018, and the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, climate policy developments—particularly renewable energy investment—have slowed down in the past couple of years.
The impact of the economic sanctions on emissions has been mixed. While oil production and exports have both decreased, some production has been diverted to domestic consumption. In 2020, emissions decreased by around 6%, mostly due to the restrictions linked to the pandemic.
Iran is one of the few countries that has not yet ratified the Paris Agreement. We rate Iran’s INDC climate pledge and climate policy “Critically insufficient”. An important first step would be for Iran to ratify the Paris Agreement, and revise its climate pledge, which we interpret as leading to more than doubling emissions from 2010 to 2030, well above what we expect emissions in 2030 to be with current policies. The intended pledge, however, makes it clear that mitigation targets will not be implemented if international sanctions are in place.
The CAT rates Iran’s climate targets and policies as “Critically insufficient”. The “Critically insufficient” rating indicates that Iran’s climate policies and commitments reflect minimal to no action and are not at all consistent with the Paris Agreement. Under Iran’s current targets and policies, emissions will continue to rise and are consistent with more than 4°C warming. Iran needs to ratify the Paris Agreement, set a more ambitious target for emissions reductions, and establish associated policies to get a better rating.
Iran has developed few mitigation policies. Some of the policies it had begun to put in place, such as the development of renewable energy, have been slowed down or halted due to international economic sanctions. Iran’s policies are sufficient to reach both its conditional and unconditional INDC targets, as these are based on highly inflated emissions growth projections.
The full policies and action analysis can be found here.
Iran’s intended conditional NDC target is far above domestic pathways (as modelled through global least cost pathways) compatible with the Paris Agreement. The CAT rates it as “Critically insufficient”, which indicates that Iran’s internationally supported target in 2030 reflects minimal to no action and is not at all consistent with the 1.5°C temperature limit. If all countries were to follow Iran’s approach, warming would exceed 4°C.
Iran’s unconditional target pledges an emissions reduction of 4% below business as usual, which would lead to emissions increasing by around 410% compared to 1990 levels. Iran’s target is not in line with interpretations of a fair approach to meeting the 1.5°C limit. The CAT rates Iran’s unconditional target as “Critically Insufficient” against its fair share range.
The CAT rates Iran’s intended, unconditional target as “Critically Insufficient” against its fair share range. Iran’s unconditional target pledges an emissions reduction of 4% below business as usual in 2030. The CAT estimates this would lead to emissions increasing by around 410% compared to 1990 levels. Iran’s target is not in line with any interpretation of a fair approach to meeting the 1.5°C limit. If all countries were to follow Iran’s approach, warming would exceed 4°C.