USA

Critically Insufficient4°C+
World
NDCs with this rating fall well outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would exceed 4°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming of greater than 4°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.
Highly insufficient< 4°C
World
NDCs with this rating fall outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach between 3°C and 4°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming between 3°C and 4°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.
Insufficient< 3°C
World
NDCs with this rating are in the least stringent part of a country’s “fair share” range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming over 2°C and up to 3°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.
2°C Compatible< 2°C
World
NDCs with this rating are consistent with the 2009 Copenhagen 2°C goal and therefore fall within a country’s “fair share” range, but are not fully consistent with the Paris Agreement long term temperature goal. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming could be held below, but not well below, 2°C and still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with holding warming below, but not well below, 2°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.
1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible< 1.5°C
World
This rating indicates that a government’s NDCs in the most stringent part of its “fair share” range: it is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.
Role model<< 1.5°C
World
This rating indicates that a government’s NDC is more ambitious than what is considered a “fair” contribution: it is more than consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. No “role model” rating has been developed for the sectors.

Country summary

CAT analysis

We are currently undertaking analysis and rating of the full dimensions of the US recent climate targets and policies, proposed and in place under President Biden’s administration, which we will publish, together with its corresponding CAT rating within a fully updated and expanded rating system, likely by late August.

Because of the massive differences between the targets and policies of the Trump administration and those of the Biden Administration we are moving the Trump era assessment to the dated archive, pending the publication of the new CAT rating system applied the USA under President Biden.

Our initial analysis of the updated and more ambitious US climate target submitted to the UNFCCC (April 2021) can be found here.

The headline finding of this initial analysis is that the USA's new NDC target under President Biden of 50-52% by 2030 below 2005 levels is a significant step forward, and would reduce the global emissions gap by 5-10% in 2030, the largest additional national reduction proposed in the 2020/2021 round of climate target updates as of July 2021.

Other relevant information on the US actions and targets under President Biden can be found here:

CAT analysis of US climate targets and policies during the Trump administration can be found here (last updated July 2020).

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