USA

The Trump Administration continues to escalate the most aggressive, comprehensive, and consequential rollback of climate mitigation targets, policies, and funding that the Climate Action Tracker has ever analysed. Through an array of executive and legislative actions, the US federal government is actively obstructing the energy transition while simultaneously incentivising the production and consumption of fossil fuels.

The administration has withdrawn the US from the Paris Agreement and its parent convention, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), effectively annulling the Biden Administration’s emissions reductions targets for 2030, 2035, and 2050. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBB) undermines progress in deploying renewable energy and the clean energy technologies accelerated by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). At the same time, the Trump Administration has entirely reoriented federal energy policy towards maximising fossil fuel production and exports, making domestic oil, gas, and coal expansion a central economic priority.

In its most recent and most far-reaching rollback of federal climate policy, the Trump Administration has moved to dismantle the government’s regulatory framework for greenhouse gas emissions. At the administration’s direction, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) rescinded the Endangerment Finding in 2026, removing the legal foundation for federal regulation of emissions and enabling the repeal of emissions standards for all new vehicles. The EPA also eliminated emissions standards for new and existing fossil fuel-fired power plants that had been strengthened under the Biden Administration. This repeal comes as rapidly expanding artificial intelligence data centres drive unprecedented growth in electricity demand, much of which will be met by new fossil fuel generation.

In combination, the Trump Administration’s policies and actions represent a complete reversal of the Biden Administration’s course on climate mitigation. This reversal significantly slows—but does not stop—emissions reductions in the US. As a result, the US will move even further off track from aligning its emissions with a 1.5°C trajectory.

Against the backdrop of climate policy and target repeals, the CAT rates the US climate agenda under the Trump Administration as “Critically Insufficient”. The rating underscores the unprecedented scale of the government’s rollback of climate mitigation and marks a profound setback for international efforts to reach the Paris Agreement’s objectives.

The CAT’s current policies scenario projections, which consider the enactment of the OBBB and the rescission of emission standards in the power and transport sectors, show a substantial deceleration in emissions reductions compared with the CAT’s projections under the Biden Administration. While still decreasing, emissions are projected to be approximately 600-1000 MtCO₂e higher in 2030 (11%-23% higher) under the Trump Administration’s policies and actions compared to emission projections under the Biden Administration.

Under the Trump Administration, US emissions will still decrease by 20%-25% in 2030 below 2005 levels, excluding emissions from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF), while the Biden Administration was on track to reduce emissions by approximately 30%-40% in 2030 below 2005 levels (excl. LULUCF).

The Trump Administration’s agenda fundamentally obstructs progress towards reducing emissions in the US and seriously threatens global efforts towards phasing out fossil fuels:

• Oil and gas production reached an all-time high in 2025 and is set to increase in 2026, as the US-Israel war on Iran and the resulting closure of the Strait of Hormuz has increased demand for US fossil fuel exports. The Trump Administration is using emergency powers to expand oil and gas drilling on federal lands and waters, even as the US is already the world’s largest producer of crude oil and fossil gas. Continued investments in new fossil fuel supply are entirely incompatible with reaching net zero emissions by 2050.
• The Trump Administration is exploiting US economic leverage to hinder climate action abroad. The administration rescinded much of the US climate and development finance commitments, while seeking to limit climate finance flows from multilateral organisations. In parallel, the administration is using tariffs to pressure trading partners to purchase more US-made liquefied natural gas (LNG).
• The rescission of the Endangerment Finding substantially constrains the federal government’s ability to regulate greenhouse gas emissions. The finding, issued in 2009, determined that greenhouse gas emissions endanger public health and welfare, enabling their regulation under the Clean Air Act. The rescission, which relied on contentious claims that contradict established scientific consensus on climate change, removes the legal foundation for regulating greenhouse gases under the act.
• The OBBB’s accelerated phase-out of federal incentives for wind and solar is front-loading development until 2030, while significantly hollowing out the project pipeline after 2030. The early termination of federal tax credits, expanded by the IRA, is driving developers to expedite wind and solar projects, resulting in record capacity additions in 2025 and continued buildout until 2030. However, annual capacity additions are expected to be halved after 2030, representing a near 80% decrease from pre-OBBB forecasts.
• The US is developing more new fossil gas-fired power plants than any other country in the world, locking in substantial additional emissions from the power sector over the coming decades, especially given the EPA repealed the Biden Administration’s strengthened emissions regulations for fossil fuel-fired power plants. The Trump Administration’s efforts to revive coal-fired power generation stand in direct opposition to the market’s steady phase-out of coal.
• Federal incentives for electric vehicles (EVs) have been phased out, while the regulatory framework for vehicle emissions is weakened. The OBBB terminates key tax credits for EVs, which will significantly decrease EV sales: the share of EVs in new light-duty vehicle sales in 2030 is projected to fall by 40-60% from pre-OBBB estimates. As a result, the OBBB undermines automaker investments in the domestic EV value chain that were spurred by the IRA’s passage. The EPA repealed tailpipe emissions standards for all new light, medium, and heavy-duty vehicles, while legislative and executive actions effectively nullified fuel efficiency regulations for new vehicles. Together, these legislative and executive actions will prolong the production of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, hampering emissions reductions from transport.
• The OBBB incentivises energy and emissions-intensive industry in the US and abroad. The OBBB distorts IRA tax credits to encourage the production of coal exported for steelmaking.
• Measures for improving efficiency and increasing electrification in the buildings sector have been terminated. The OBBB eliminated critical incentives for electrifying buildings. The Trump Administration also rescinded federal funding for building code implementation, decreasing energy efficiency and increasing consumer costs.
• The Trump Administration has further weakened the federal government’s policy package for reducing emissions from agriculture, already insufficient under the Biden Administration.
• Net forest sinks are threatened by land conversion, increased demand for timber products, and more frequent natural disturbances from climate change. The Trump Administration is massively expanding timber production on federal lands. Even under the Biden Administration, which increased funding for carbon sink preservation, logging efforts were increasing.
• The Trump Administration has withdrawn the US from key multilateral organisations on climate change. Beyond pulling the US out of the Paris Agreement, the administration has stated its intention to leave the UNFCCC and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC); moves of uncertain legal basis that could leave significant gaps in global emissions accounting. The administration is also pressuring the International Energy Agency (IEA), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank to promote fossil fuels over renewable energy.

To offset the Trump Administration’s policy rollbacks, subnational actors are implementing ambitious emissions reductions measures:

• States are and will continue to advance the Biden Administration’s progress on climate action. The 2035 NDC target, submitted by the Biden Administration in 2024, was developed in close consultation with state governments and can still guide state action on mitigating emissions. The US Climate Alliance—a bipartisan coalition of 24 states and territories—remains committed to advancing climate action. However, the Trump Administration is pursuing legal action to inhibit state-level decarbonisation measures.

The CAT rates each country’s targets and policies against (1) its fair share contribution to climate change mitigation considering a range of equity principles including responsibility, capability, and equality, and (2) what is technically and economically feasible using modelled domestic pathways which, in absence of a better method, are based on global least-cost climate change mitigation.

Comparing a country’s fair share ranges and modelled domestic pathways provides insights into which governments should provide climate finance and which should receive it. Developed countries with large responsibility for historical emissions and high per-capita emissions, must not only implement ambitious climate action domestically but must also support climate action in developing countries with lower historical responsibility, capability, and lower per-capita emissions.

The CAT rates the combination of the US targets, policies, and climate finance as “Critically Insufficient”. The “Critically Insufficient” rating indicates that the US’ climate policies and commitments reflect minimal to no action and are not at all consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit.

The Trump Administration’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement nullifies the US domestic emissions reductions targets (NDCs) for 2030 and 2035. The administration has rescinded most of the US international climate finance commitments, which were already critically insufficient under the Biden Administration.

The CAT rates the US policies and action as “Highly Insufficient”. The rating indicates that the government’s climate policies and action are not consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit. The CAT projects US greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2030 will be 20%–25% below 2005 levels (excl. LULUCF). For reference, under the Biden Administration’s policies and actions, the CAT projected GHG emissions in 2030 would have been approximately 30%–40% below 2005 levels (excl. LULUCF). Under both administrations, current policies fall significantly short of the US fair share target.

In July 2025, President Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBB) into law. The OBBB dismantles much of the Inflation Reduction Act’s (IRA) efforts to reduce emissions in the power, transport, industry, and buildings sectors.

The Trump Administration directed the US Environmental Protection Agency to dismantle the federal regulatory framework for GHG emissions. In February 2026, the EPA overturned the 2009 Endangerment Finding that served as the government’s legal basis for regulating GHG emissions.

As a result, the EPA repealed the federal emissions standards for new light, medium and heavy-duty vehicles in February 2026. In September 2026, the EPA overturned emissions standards for new and existing fossil fuel-fired power plants that were strengthened by the Biden Administration in 2024. Alongside the repeal of the Biden Administration’s standards, the EPA proposed to repeal all remaining emissions standards for fossil fuel-fired power plants, citing the Endangerment Finding’s overturning.

The projected emissions range is narrower than our previous assessment from September 2025, which presented a broad literature-derived emissions range that underscored the uncertainty associated with many of the Trump Administration’s policy changes, especially those policy changes that directly clash with market forces that are driving out coal and scaling up renewables. The narrowing of the current projections reflects greater clarity around the OBBB’s emissions impact, as well as the Trump Administration’s executive actions.

See full summary of policies and actions here.

The CAT rates the government’s lack of NDC targets as “Critically Insufficient” against modelled domestic pathways. The Trump Administration voided the existing 2030 and 2035 NDC targets, established by the Biden Administration in 2021 and 2024, respectively.

The “Critically Insufficient” rating indicates the Trump Administration’s revocation of the NDC targets is not at all consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow a US approach, warming would exceed 4°C.

The CAT rates the lack of NDC targets as “Critically Insufficient” against fair share. The Trump Administration annulled the existing US NDC targets for 2030 and 2035.

The “Critically Insufficient” rating indicates the Trump Administration’s revocation of the NDC targets is not at all consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow the US approach, warming would exceed 4°C.

The CAT rates the United States’ international public climate finance contributions as “Critically Insufficient”. This rating is based on the government’s 2025 OECD contributions. The Trump Administration dismantled the US international aid apparatus and rescinded climate finance commitments.

Even under the Biden Administration, the CAT rated the US international public climate finance contributions as “Critically Insufficient”. To improve its rating, the US needs to ramp up the level of its international climate finance contributions and stop supporting fossil fuels abroad.

The US’ climate finance is not sufficient to improve the rating of its NDC against its fair share, and the CAT rates the US’s overall fair share contribution as “Critically insufficient”.

The Trump Administration is not committed to reaching net zero emissions. Therefore, the CAT considers the US to no longer have a net zero target. Although the federal government does not have a net zero target, 19 states are still pursuing net zero (Net Zero Tracker, 2026).