Viet Nam

Viet Nam’s energy transition strategy faces a persistent conflicting priority between its long-term decarbonisation commitments and continued reliance on coal and fossil gas to meet growing energy demand. While the government has introduced measures to accelerate renewable energy deployment and expand grid infrastructure, continued support for coal and LNG risks undermining progress, particularly in the power and industrial sectors. Rapid EV uptake is a positive development, but its emissions reduction potential depends on accelerating power sector decarbonisation.

The Government’s emphasis on energy security and rapid economic growth has reinforced fossil fuel development, while recent policy changes have weakened the earlier renewable generation target and coal phaseout commitments by 2050 under JETP. These changes, along with continued LNG expansion, risk locking in emissions and competing with investment in renewables, grids and storage. They also deepen reliance on imported LNG and expose Viet Nam more to volatile international fuel markets, as highlighted by the 2026 Middle East conflict, ultimately undermining the government's own energy security objectives.

The delay in releasing its 2035 NDC leaves Viet Nam’s post-2030 mitigation pathway unclear. The Climate Action Tracker continues to rate Viet Nam’s overall climate targets and action as “Critically insufficient.”

Viet Nam’s 2030 unconditional NDC implies emissions of around 880 MtCO₂e (excluding LULUCF), considerably above the around 675 MtCO₂e projected under current policies and therefore it does not push for any additional mitigation beyond the policy trajectory. As of October 2026, Viet Nam had not submitted the next NDC setting out its 2035 target. Viet Nam has yet to submit its first Biennial Transparency Report (BTR), limiting transparency on its latest greenhouse gas emissions policies and progress towards achieving its 2030 NDC.

In January 2026 the 14th Party Congress set a goal to cut GHG emissions by 8-9% over 2026–2030, without specifying a baseline, but current policies projections point in the opposite direction, as emissions under current policies is 23% higher in 2030 than in 2025 (excluding LULUCF), continuing the trend of the last years. This is primarily because most of the newly announced or adopted policies, apart from the updated Power Development Plan 8 (PDP8), remain at a framework level or lack detailed regulations on implementation.

Viet Nam entered into a Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) in 2022, with total pledged international financial support of USD 15.5 bn for 2026–2028. In March 2026, Viet Nam adopted Decision 458/QĐ-TTg to update its domestic JETP implementation plan in line with the revised PDP8 and Resolution 70. This replaces the previous domestic implementation plan rather than formally amending the original international JETP Political Declaration. The update has weakened some key elements of the original JETP, most notably by replacing the target of at least 47% renewable electricity generation with a target of 47% renewable installed capacity. While marginal, the government also increased coal capacity ceiling, from 30.2 GW to a range of 30.2–31.055 GW.

Of particular concern, Decision 458/QĐ-TTg no longer clearly reiterates the original JETP direction of a 2050 coal phase-out. Instead, the updated framework now states that coal plants over 40 years old are to be retired if they cannot convert to alternative fuels, compared to the explicit direction towards coal phase-out under the JETP. The framework update has thus seen major weakening of its climate commitments, which again is largely spurred by the recent global energy crisis.

In the power sector, Viet Nam has adopted policies to address barriers to renewable energy scale-up, including increased grid investment, accelerated solar deployment, the establishment of a legal framework for offshore wind, and rapid nuclear development. It continues to provide special mechanisms for what it calls "nationally important" oil, gas and coal projects, raising the risk of long-term carbon lock-in. Renewable generation has helped moderate the emissions impact of growing electricity demand in some years, most recently in 2025. However, this progress has been uneven and policy must go further: clean generation needs not only to meet new demand, but also to displace existing fossil generation.

Coal and gas together still supplied more than 50% of power generation in 2025. Viet Nam plans to expand fossil gas power capacity, including LNG, to 33–37 GW by 2030, accounting for 16–18% of total installed capacity. Nuclear expansion is also being pursued, despite long lead times and high capital costs, and should not delay investment in renewables, storage and grids. Investor confidence is further affected by unresolved legacy feed-in tariffs for around 170 solar and wind projects.

Viet Nam launched its first pilot emissions trading scheme (ETS) in June 2025, covering the power, cement, and steel sectors, together responsible for nearly half of national CO₂ emissions. This marks an important institutional step, supported by new emissions reporting requirements, with a national registry under development.

However, the scheme is based on intensity benchmarks rather than absolute caps and that risks the increase of emissions. This scheme allows up to 30% of compliance through carbon credits, both domestic and international, and grants most allowances for free, which brings into question the effectiveness of the emissions trading scheme. Recently, the government approved the first allowance allocations for 2025–26 and created a framework for international carbon credit transfer under Article 6.

Viet Nam has laid important policy and institutional foundations for its low-carbon transition for non-power sectors, which is visible in transport (electrification roadmaps), buildings (new efficiency standards), agriculture (methane action plan and Low-Emission Crop Production Plan) and waste (circular economy action plan). However, implementation remains at an early stage and hence emissions under current policy projections remain high.

Overall, the credibility of Viet Nam’s climate commitments will hinge on accelerating coal retirement, avoiding a fossil gas lock-in, and addressing persistent governance and implementation gaps. Without stronger, economy-wide policies and decisive action this decade, the country risks missing the opportunity to align its development pathway with the 1.5°C limit.

Viet Nam’s emissions are set to keep rising until 2030, contrary to what is needed to achieve the 1.5°C temperature goal. To reverse this trend, Viet Nam could:

• Accelerate renewables and reduce fossil-import exposure in near term: Faster solar and wind deployment, together with grid upgrades, storage, and efficiency, could meet growing electricity demand, limit exposure to volatile imported LNG and coal, and improve energy security. These benefits strengthen the case for prioritising clean energy over additional long-lived fossil fuel infrastructure.
• Tighten the allocation baseline of the ETS pilot: The first allocation for 2025–2026 allows higher emissions in 2026 than in 2025. To align the role of market mechanisms with its national target, and the 1.5°C limit, Viet Nam should tighten the allowance allocation rules which would incentivise industrial sectors to put forward effective decarbonisation measures, while also coping with surging energy demand from rapid GDP growth target. Viet Nam should also continue its effort to establish sectoral decarbonisation roadmaps for steel, cement, chemicals, and textiles, with binding and absolute reductions.
• Submit a clear and ambitious 2035 target, while also strengthening the 2030 target by implementing a national, economy-wide goal: The target should clearly differentiate between unconditional commitments, which Viet Nam plans to meet using domestic resources, and conditional components that rely on international support.

Despite these drawbacks, the latest developments include some positive steps:

• Continued support to scale up renewable energy: The government has adopted measures to address barriers to renewable energy scale-up. This includes improving its legal framework for offshore wind and grid development, and accelerating rooftop solar deployment.
• The transport sector continues to make strong progress on electrification: Viet Nam now has the largest EV market in Southeast Asia. The government has introduced financial incentives to accelerate EV uptake and policy measures to expand charging infrastructure, including in apartment buildings. Several major cities are also introducing restrictions on fossil fuel vehicles, providing further impetus for EV adoption in urban areas.

The CAT ratings compare country’s targets and policies to (1) its fair share contribution to climate change mitigation considering a range of equity principles including responsibility, capability and equality, and (2) what is technically and economically feasible using modelled domestic pathways which are based on global least-cost climate change mitigation.

Comparing a country’s fair share ranges and modelled domestic pathways provides insights into which governments should provide climate finance and which should receive it. Developed countries with large responsibility for historical emissions and high per-capita emissions, must not only implement ambitious climate action domestically but must also support climate action in developing countries with lower historical responsibility, capability, and lower per-capita emissions.

The CAT rates Viet Nam’s climate targets and policies as "Critically insufficient." The "Critically insufficient" rating indicates that Viet Nam’s climate policies and commitments are not at all consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit. Viet Nam’s unconditional NDC and policies and action are both rated as "Critically insufficient" when compared to its fair share.

Viet Nam’s conditional NDC is rated as "Highly insufficient" compared to modelled domestic pathways. As a country with lower responsibility, capability, and per-capita emissions, Viet Nam should receive international support to set an ambitious conditional NDC target beyond its national fair share and implement the policies necessary to achieve it.

The CAT rates Viet Nam’s climate policies and action as “Critically insufficient” when compared to its fair share contribution. Under Viet Nam’s current policies and actions, emissions will continue to rise to around 673–675 MtCO₂e (excluding LULUCF) in 2030, implying a warming of above 4°C. For a fair contribution to 1.5°C, emissions would need to fall to just below 350 MtCO₂e in 2030.

In May 2025, the Viet Nam government adopted the revised version of the Power Development Plan 8 (2025 PDP8), strengthening the coal phase-out and scaling up solar and offshore wind. The plan proposes a share of wind and solar capacity of 40–47% by 2030. However, the plan’s increased reliance on nuclear and LNG raises concerns.

Viet Nam’s new Electricity Law (2024), effective February 2025, replaces the 2004 framework with a comprehensive overhaul covering planning, licensing, pricing, market competition, and grid operations. Its success will depend on timely implementation of regulations, particularly for renewable incentives, project approval, and pricing mechanisms.

Coal usage for power generation remains a concern for Viet Nam, although it has shown a notable recent decline in the pipeline, largely due to insufficient project financing. The PDP8 aims to eliminate coal capacity by 2050, though coal will persist in the energy mix throughout this decade, contributing around 16% of installed capacity by 2030, an improvement on the 2023 PDP8 figure of 20%.

Recent major policies development includes scaling up grid investment and solar deployment, establishing an offshore wind development legal framework, and developing nuclear at full speed, while also provides special mechanisms for nationally imported oil, gas and coal projects. Such a contradicting stance jeopardises renewable energy rollout in Viet Nam. Fossil gas-based power generation capacity is planned to be 16–18% in 2030, combining both domestic gas and LNG to power. To support this expansion, Viet Nam is planning to increase domestic production of fossil gas as well as imports, further increasing the country's vulnerability to energy security threats in a complex geopolitical landscape.

The full policies and action analysis can be found here .

We rate Viet Nam’s 2030 conditional target compared to modelled domestic pathway as “Highly insufficient”. Viet Nam’s conditional target equates to 629 MtCO₂e by 2030 (excluding LULUCF).

The “Highly insufficient” rating indicates that Viet Nam’s conditional target in 2030 leads to rising, rather than falling, emissions and is not at all consistent with modelled domestic pathways limiting warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow Viet Nam’s approach, warming could reach over 3°C and up to 4°C.

In our previous update, the conditional NDC was rated as “Critically insufficient”. The rating has improved due to an update in our modelled domestic pathways and is not due to any changes in the target itself.

We rate Viet Nam’s unconditional target as “Critically insufficient” when compared to its fair share emissions allocation. Viet Nam’s unconditional target equates to 878 MtCO₂e by 2030 (excluding LULUCF).

This rating indicates that Viet Nam’s unconditional target in 2030 reflects minimal to no action and is not at all consistent with its fair share of the global mitigation effort to limit warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow same approach, warming would exceed 4°C.

In 2016, Viet Nam had a net carbon sink capacity of 39 MtCO₂e. In its National Climate Change Strategy to 2050, Viet Nam has established a target for its land use and forestry sector with the aim of reducing 70% of remaining emissions, thereby increasing the carbon absorption rate by 20% and achieving a total sink capacity of 95 MtCO₂e by 2030. It aims to maintain national forest coverage of 43%, by improving forest quality and sustainable forest management techniques, and is critical to Viet Nam achieving net zero.

During the COP26 World Leaders’ Summit in 2021, Viet Nam announced a target of achieving net zero by 2050.  This target covers three main GHG emissions – CO₂, CH₄ and N₂0, covering 98% of total emissions. In July 2022, Viet Nam reiterated its commitment to reach net zero in the decision approving its National Climate Change Strategy, aimed at guiding its planning to achieve net zero by 2050, and continued to strengthen measures to achieve the target in the recent 2025 PDP8. Viet Nam’s net zero target is conditional on international financial support. The CAT rates Viet Nam’s target as “Average”.

The full net zero target analysis can be found here.