This assessment includes our policy analysis from 30 July 2020 translated into our new rating methodology without new analysis of Argentina’s climate policies since then, except the NDC update submitted in April 2021. We will fully analyse Argentina in the coming months and the rating may change.
The CAT rates Argentina’s climate targets and policies together as “Highly insufficient”. We rate Argentina’s 2030 climate target “Insufficient” when compared to modelled domestic emissions pathways and “Highly insufficient” when compared with its fair-share contribution to climate action.
Argentina’s policies and actions are also rated as “Highly insufficient” as they lead to rising, rather than falling, emissions. We have not yet updated emissions projections from policies and action since our last update (30 July 2020), and once we do it in the coming months, Argentina’s rating might change.
Overall, Argentina’s climate targets and policies are not stringent enough to limit warming to 1.5°C and need substantial improvements.
We rate Argentina’s policies and actions as “Highly insufficient”. Argentina’s policies and action in 2030—based on our assessment from 30 July 2020—lead to rising, rather than falling, emissions and are not at all consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit. A “Highly insufficient” rating translates to global temperature rise over 3°C and up to 4°C by end of the century. Argentina’s projections from policies and action will be updated in the coming months, and Argentina’s rating could change.
Argentina faces the economic crisis induced by the COVID-19 pandemic amid an economic recession for the third consecutive year. The country’s energy sector and climate change planning will be largely influenced by the ongoing developments of the pandemic, the domestic recovery measures to confront the crisis, the external risks due to the collapse of international oil prices, and the renegotiation of its foreign debt.
The government has not introduced any ‘green’ measures in its recovery stimulus plans but instead artificially fixed the domestic oil price at a minimum of USD 45 per barrel for 2020, irrespectively of the fact that international oil prices remain considerably lower. Although the new government has justified this intervention to protect jobs and the entire energy industry in the context of the COVID‑19 crisis, this measure constitutes a direct subsidy to rescue the oil and gas sector in Argentina. The government also capped electricity and gas tariffs to December 2019 levels until the end of 2020.
In July 2019, the Macri government declared a climate emergency followed by the Senate passing a Climate Change Law in December 2019. The law positioned the treatment of climate change as national policy, institutionalised the articulation of activities and responsibilities related to climate change, and established minimum financial budgets for its adequate management, including the design and implementation of mitigation and adaptation policies. Macri announced the goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050.
The full policies and action analysis can be found here.
We rate Argentina’s unconditional climate target of “not exceeding the net emission of 359 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2030” from its December 2020 NDC as “Insufficient” when compared with modelled domestic emissions pathways. We refer to this as Argentina’s “domestic target”, or what they will do within their own territory. The “Insufficient” rating is associated with global temperature rise over 2°C and up to 3°C by end of the century and indicates that Argentina’s domestic target in 2030 needs substantial improvements to be consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit.
Argentina’s domestic target is very close to the “Almost sufficient” rating.
Our methods do not provide a clear answer for the need for finance for Argentina. On balance the CAT methodology shows that provision of a small but important amount of international support is consistent with the wide range of literature on fair share contributions to meeting the Paris Agreement's goals.
We rate Argentina’s unconditional 2030 climate target from December 2020 as “Highly insufficient” when compared with its fair-share contribution to climate action. We refer to this as Argentina’s “fair share target”.
In comparison to our previous assessment of Argentina’s NDC target against fair share, where we had rated the 2030 climate target as “Insufficient”, our updated method rates the same target as “Highly insufficient”. Argentina’s fair share is slightly more stringent in 2021 due to changes in the CAT’s methods for calculating fair shares. Previously, a few studies had a strong impact on the upper end of the effort-sharing range. Under the new methods, those studies still impact the range but don’t determine it as strongly. Argentina’s fair share is determined by multiple historic indicators, including historic emissions per capita and GDP / capita. Recent economic and political developments are not reflected in Argentina’s fair share calculations as few studies were published in the last 5 years.
Argentina’s average share of emissions from LULUCF over the past 20 years are more than 20% of the country’s total emissions. Argentina should work toward reducing emissions from LULUCF, particularly reducing deforestation and to preserve and enhance land sinks. For more information about forestry activities in Argentina, please see the policies and action section.