Turkey

Critically Insufficient4°C+
World
Commitments with this rating fall well outside the fair share range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government targets were in this range, warming would exceed 4°C.
Highly insufficient< 4°C
World
Commitments with this rating fall outside the fair share range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government targets were in this range, warming would reach between 3°C and 4°C.
Insufficient< 3°C
World
Commitments with this rating are in the least stringent part of their fair share range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government targets were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.
2°C Compatible< 2°C
World
Commitments with this rating are consistent with the 2009 Copenhagen 2°C goal and therefore fall within the country’s fair share range, but are not fully consistent with the Paris Agreement. If all government targets were in this range, warming could be held below, but not well below, 2°C and still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit.
1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible< 1.5°C
World
This rating indicates that a government’s efforts are in the most stringent part of its fair share range: it is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.
Role model<< 1.5°C
World
This rating indicates that a government’s efforts are more ambitious than what is considered a fair contribution: it is more than consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Graph Footnotes

INSTRUCTIONS: Click each data series legend item above to deactivate or activate on the graph. To zoom in on the graph - click and drag to create a box - then release. To return to full scale, simply double click anywhere on the graph.

Overview

Turkey continues with its plan to meet increased energy demand by building new coal-fired power plants, which stands in strong contrast to the need to reduce the use of coal in electricity globally by two-thirds over 2020–2030 and to zero by 2050. On the positive side, the Turkish government has committed to investing almost US$ 11 billion in energy efficiency measures and its National Energy Efficiency Action Plan, if fully implemented, is expected to reduce Turkey’s emissions by 7-11% below current policy projections by 2030. However, because of the underlying growth in coal projected, the resulting emissions level would still fall within our “Critically Insufficient” emissions range.

While the stated aim for this coal expansion is improved energy security, water shortages in the region are already casting doubt on the operating efficiency, output and reliability of thermal power plants, and these stresses are expected to intensify. The ongoing reduction in the costs of renewable energy technology and storage means that reliable power can be obtained cost-effectively without resorting to coal-powered generation. Turkey has also begun constructing its first nuclear power plant amid international protest at the earthquake risk.

Given the large uncertainties and risks around nuclear power plant construction in Turkey it makes more sense - on environmental, economical, energy security and social grounds - to invest more in renewables.

Aside from the Energy Efficiency Action Plan, Turkey has made little progress on climate action implementation. The new emissions trajectory in this update that now projects Turkey to overachieve its “Critically Insufficient” NDC target is primarily due to revised economic assumptions in our methodology, and updated historical data.

Turkey remains one of the only two G20 countries that have not ratified the Paris Agreement. Its Intended National Determined Contribution (INDC) submitted in 2015, contains a greenhouse gas reduction target (including land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF)) of up to 21% below business-as-usual (BAU) in 2030 (The Republic of Turkey, 2015). Excluding LULUCF emissions, the target in the INDC is equivalent to a 95% increase 2016 levels (latest historical year included in our analysis).

We rate Turkey’s NDC target “Critically Insufficient”. Turkey’s commitment is not in line with interpretations of a “fair” approach in line with holding warming below 2°C, let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. This means that if most other countries followed Turkey’s approach, global warming would exceed 3–4°C.

Latest publications

Stay informed

Subscribe to our newsletter