Saudi Arabia

This assessment has been partially updated to reflect the latest NDC target released by Saudi Arabia in December 2025. However, other elements of our analysis — including the current policy scenario — have not yet been updated. In addition, this new assessment was originally conducted before the current global energy crisis. As a result, recent developments in global energy markets and their potential implications are not yet fully incorporated into the analysis. The full Saudi Arabia profile will be updated later in 2026.

Saudi Arabia’s emissions are on a steep upward trajectory and are projected to continue rising through to 2035. No recent policy developments suggest a shift capable of slowing this growth or reducing the country’s dependence on fossil fuels. The government’s plans to cut emissions by expanding renewable energy have largely failed to materialise. Saudi Arabia’s goal to generate 50% of its electricity from renewables by 2030 remains aspirational at best – renewables only accounted for 2% its power mix in 2024, highlighting the persistent gap between ambition and implementation.

Saudi Arabia’s new climate target, submitted in December 2025, does little to alter the country’s overall trajectory. It offers no meaningful improvements in ambition or transparency compared to the previous NDC. On the contrary, the new emissions reduction target remains far from being 1.5 °C compatible, and the gap between Saudi Arabia’s targets and a 1.5°C trajectory has actually widened significantly between 2030 and 2035. Instead of narrowing the ambition gap over time, the country is drifting further away from a 1.5 °C-aligned pathway.

Once again, Saudi Arabia’s climate strategy has avoided tackling the real driver of emissions: fossil fuel production and use. As the world’s largest crude oil exporter, Saudi Arabia is responsible for a significant share of global emissions, with emissions from exported oil burned in other countries amounting to more than twice the level of its domestic emissions.

Despite its “Vision 2030” diversification plan, initiated nearly a decade ago, oil export revenues remain the backbone of the Saudi economy. These revenues, funnelled partly through the Saudi sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund (PIF), have done little to advance the country’s energy transition, instead being directed toward mega-projects and other technology ventures.

The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) rates Saudi Arabia’s overall climate action as “Critically Insufficient”.

Saudi Arabia’s emissions trajectory shows no sign of bending down in the coming decade. On the contrary, according to the latest CAT estimates, its emissions are projected to rise to 819—845 MtCO₂e in 2030 (excl. LULUCF), a 13—17% increase from 2019 levels, although Saudi Arabia already now has one of the world’s highest per capita emission levels, well above the USA, Canada, or Australia. This represents a slight upward revision from our previous projections.

In December 2025, Saudi Arabia submitted its new NDC, setting a 2040 target to reduce emissions by 335 MtCO₂e below baseline projections. A detailed analysis of this target is available here.
Overall, Saudi Arabia’s new climate commitment largely mirrors its previous submission, offering neither stronger ambition nor greater transparency. Assessing progress toward its new emissions reduction target is impossible: The country did not provide a quantified 2035 target, and the new target is still pegged to an opaque baseline scenario that makes progress and ambition nearly impossible to measure.

Given this lack of transparency, the CAT had to derive an emissions level in 2035 using an external baseline scenario (for more information, see Assumptions). Given the uncertainties around the expected contributions of the land use and forestry sector to emissions reduction, we estimate that Saudi Arabia’s new NDC would lead to emissions ranging from 630–854 MtCO₂e in 2035 (excl. LULUCF), or between 13% below and 18% above 2019 levels.

According to our estimates, this new target is actually set at a higher emissions level compared to the 2030 target. More importantly, under this new NDC, Saudi Arabia’s emissions level in 2035 remains far from being consistent with a 1.5°C compatible pathway, both in terms of modelled domestic pathways and fair share. To align with a 1.5°C compatible modelled domestic pathway, Saudi Arabia would need to reduce its emissions by at least 50% below 2019 levels by 2035 (excl. LULUCF).

Despite repeatedly announcing ambitious renewable energy targets, Saudi Arabia has made little tangible progress in the last decade. Its latest target aims for 50% of electricity to be generated with renewable energy by 2030. Yet, as of 2024, renewables generated around 2% of electricity, rendering the 2030 target increasingly infeasible. While the pace of renewable capacity additions has picked up slightly in the last two years, total installed capacity remains modest at just 4.7 GW. In contrast, Saudi Arabia had 97 GW of oil and gas plants in operation, along with a pipeline of more than 8 GW of fossil-fuelled power plants under construction as of August 2024.

The country’s emissions are driven by its persistent dependence on oil production, consumption, and export. This trend is unlikely to change in the near future. In its latest NDC, Saudi Arabia explicitly states that its climate ambition is contingent on sustained fossil fuel exports and the revenue and economic growth they generate.

Saudi Arabia is still among the world’s largest fossil fuel exporters. Aramco, the national oil company, maintains a high production capacity of 12 million barrels per day and can quickly ramp up output at the government’s request. This entrenched dependency could expose Saudi Arabia to legal challenges. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) recently confirmed that states have a binding legal duty to prevent environmental harm from climate change, effectively opening the door to legal action.

Despite its economic diversification plan known as “Vision 2030”, the country remains heavily reliant on oil export revenues, which provide significant funding to its sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund (PIF). Rather than directing these revenues primarily toward accelerating the country’s energy transition, the PIF has prioritised mega-projects such as NEOM city and investments in artificial intelligence.

Saudi Arabia also has a track record of obstructing international climate negotiations by repeatedly opposing references to the 1.5°C warming limit and language related to the phase-out of fossil fuels. Notably, at COP29, Saudi Arabia sought to undermine the pledge to transition away from fossil fuels agreed at COP28. This raises concerns about the country’s willingness to engage in meaningful climate action on the global stage.

At the same time, Saudi Arabia itself faces mounting climate risks: temperatures in the country are already rising faster than the global average, with projections suggesting warming of around 4°C this century under current global policies.

To improve its climate action, Saudi Arabia should take the following steps:

• Develop a credible economic diversification plan away from fossil fuels, which is both compatible with the Paris Agreement and takes into account the risks associated with exporting fossil fuels in a world heading to net zero emissions. This plan should include a clear commitment to ending new investments in oil and gas production and a phase-out of fossil fuels in line with a 1.5°C scenario.
• Significantly accelerate renewable energy deployment, which would help drive decarbonisation efforts and stimulate sustainable job growth for its young population, all of which are objectives of the Vision 2030 agenda. A nation’s claim to leadership in green hydrogen exports is only credible once it has substantially increased its domestic use of renewable energy.
• Provide the underlying data behind the baseline scenario underpinning its 2040 emissions reduction target: ideally, the NDC should disclose the underlying data and the modelling assumptions behind the baseline scenarios, including the expected contributions of the land use and forestry sector.
• Clarify the assumptions behind its 2060 net zero target, which currently lacks transparency and credibility, and does not provide a clear emissions reduction pathway.

There are, however, a few positive developments worth highlighting:

• Saudi Arabia is ramping up its investment in renewable energy, with the government announcing plans to build 15 GW of solar and wind farms through an $8.3 bn investment by a consortium led by Saudi utilities giant ACWA Power.
• Some progress is also visible in the transport sector, with the Riyadh Metro now operational, expanded rail connectivity, and investments in local EV manufacturing under Vision 2030. However, private car use and diesel freight still dominate, keeping transport emissions high.

The CAT rates each country’s targets and policies against (1) its fair share contribution to climate change mitigation considering a range of equity principles including responsibility, capability and equality, and (2) what is technically and economically feasible using modelled domestic pathways which, in absence of a better method, are based on global least-cost climate change mitigation.

Comparing a country’s fair share ranges and modelled domestic pathways provides insights into which governments should provide climate finance and which should receive it. Developed countries with large responsibility for historical emissions and high per-capita emissions, must not only implement ambitious climate action domestically but must also support climate action in developing countries with lower historical responsibility, capability, and lower per-capita emissions.

The CAT rates Saudi Arabia’s climate targets and policies as “Critically insufficient”. This rating indicates that Saudi Arabia’s climate policies and commitments reflect minimal to no action and are not at all consistent with the 1.5°C temperature limit.

Saudi Arabia is far from meeting its fair share contribution to climate change mitigation. Its 2030 climate commitment is unclear, as the government has not published the baseline corresponding to its Paris Agreement target.

We rate Saudi Arabia’s NDC target both as “Critically insufficient” when compared with its fair-share contribution to climate action, and “Critically insufficient” when compared to modelled domestic pathways, downscaled from global least-cost scenarios.

To get a better rating, Saudi Arabia needs to set more ambitious climate targets and establish associated policies that can curb the growth in national emissions and set them on a downward trend.

The CAT rates Saudi Arabia’s policies and actions as “Highly Insufficient” when compared to fair share. This rating indicates that Saudi Arabia’s climate policies and action in 2030 lead to rising, rather than falling emissions and are not consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow Saudi Arabia’s approach, warming could reach over 3°C and up to 4°C.

Saudi Arabia remains highly dependent on fossil fuel revenues and keeps pushing for false solutions such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the hope of extending the life of its extractive industry. The government has put forward several mitigation measures, but implementation has been slow, particularly in the renewable energy sector. Despite its vast solar energy resource, Saudi Arabia had only installed about 4.7 GW of renewable energy capacity in 2024, generating around 2% of total electricity.

Since our previous assessment, Saudi Arabia’s policies and action rating has changed from 'Critically insufficient' to 'Highly insufficient' when compared to fair share. Importantly, this adjustment does not indicate any actual improvement in Saudi Arabia’s policies compared to our previous assessment. Rather, it reflects a literature update to our fair share (FS) ranges, aligning our equity approaches with international environmental law and excluding studies based solely on cost-effectiveness. We also incorporated additional recent studies to capture the latest research in the field.

The full policies and action analysis can be found here.

The CAT rates Saudi Arabia’s NDC target as “Critically insufficient” when compared to modelled domestic pathways. This rating indicates that Saudi Arabia’s NDC target reflects minimal to no action and is not at all consistent with the 1.5°C temperature limit when compared to modelled domestic pathways. If all countries were to follow Saudi Arabia’s approach, warming would exceed 4°C.

The CAT rates Saudi Arabia’s NDC target compared to fair share as “Highly insufficient”. This rating indicates that Saudi Arabia’s NDC target in 2030 is not at all consistent with its fair share of the global mitigation effort to limit warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow Saudi Arabia’s approach, warming could reach over 3°C and up to 4°C.

Since our previous assessment, Saudi Arabia’s NDC target rating has changed from 'Critically insufficient' to 'Highly insufficient' when compared to fair share. Importantly, this adjustment does not indicate any actual improvement in Saudi Arabia’s targets compared to our previous assessment. Rather, this reflects a literature update to our fair share (FS) ranges, aligning our equity approaches with international environmental law and excluding studies based solely on cost-effectiveness. We also incorporated additional recent studies to capture the latest research in the field

The CAT evaluates the net zero target as: Poor.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman announced Saudi Arabia’s net zero target for 2060 at the first Saudi Green Initiative Forum in October 2021. However, the target has yet to be enshrined in law or a policy document.

Since its initial announcement in 2021, the Saudi government has not provided any further detailed information on scope, target architecture, or transparency. Saudi Arabia has not yet provided a clear emissions reduction pathway to net zero. The emission coverage remains unclear. The CAT currently assumes that only CO₂ emissions are covered, given the lack of information