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Nepal’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), submitted in October 2016, is more ambitious than its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) submitted earlier that year. While the INDC contained a list of ten targets, Nepal has added four more to its NDC. These targets include plans to increase renewable energy production, which shows Nepal’s intent to move to a low carbon development pathway. The NDC does not include any overall greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets. We could not quantify the overall impact of Nepal’s targets on GHG emissions, and therefore we could not rate the NDC. That said, the NDC contains ambitious targets, expected to result in emissions reductions compared to the current policy projections, which lie in the “1.5°C Paris Agreement compatible” range.
Nepal’s current policies are consistent with holding warming well below 2°C, and limiting warming to 1.5°C. Nepal’s current policies do not require other countries to make comparably deeper reductions or greater effort.
Given that Nepal’s NDC consists of many individual actions with different target years and that some actions lack detail and leave room for further specification, we were not able to quantify and rate the aggregate impact of Nepal’s NDC on GHG emissions. We encourage Nepal to provide more clarity on its climate change targets in its next NDC.
As of 2010, Nepal’s own emissions make up less than 0.1% of global emissions. With its current policies, Nepal’s GHG emissions are expected to increase to between 50–53 MtCO2e by 2030 (an increase of 55–66% compared to 2010 levels). Even with this increase, the country’s per capita emissions would only grow from 1.2 tCO2e/cap as of 2010 to 1.5–1.6 tCO2e/cap by 2030, still far below the 2012 world average of 7.6 tCO2e/cap (JRC, 2016).