This assessment includes our policy analysis from 27 November 2020 translated into our new rating methodology as well as Nepal’s updated NDC submitted in December 2020. We will analyse Nepal fully in the coming months, at which time the rating may change.
The CAT rates Nepal’s climate targets and action as “Almost sufficient”. The “Almost sufficient” rating indicates that Nepal’s climate commitments are not yet consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit but could be with moderate improvements. While Nepal’s updated NDC is a step in the right direction, Nepal needs to strengthen its conditional target further, with international support.
Nepal’s current policies are 1.5°C compatible when compared to its fair-share contribution. The “1.5°C Paris Agreement compatible” rating indicates that Nepal’s climate policies and action are consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. Nepal’s climate policies and action do not require other countries to make comparably deeper reductions.
Emissions have continued to grow in Nepal, going from about 26 - 54 MtCO2e between 1990 and 2016. While the government is showing some progress in the implementation of its mitigation policies, under current policies, emissions are expected to increase between 31-36% 2030, above current levels. Current policies are not sufficient to meet the lower end of its Nepal’s updated conditional target. Nor are they where Nepal needs to be when compared with modelled domestic pathways. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, emissions have shrunk in 2020, compared to 2019, but we expect they will bounce back and continue their upward trend, once the economy recovers. Nepal needs to implement more stringent policies, for which it will need additional support.
Nepal’s conditional target is “Critically insufficient”. The “Critically insufficient” rating indicates that Nepal’s internationally supported target in 2030 reflects minimal to no action and is not at all consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit. If all countries were to follow Nepal’s approach, warming would exceed 4°C.
Not all sector measures have been included in our assessment of Nepal’s conditional target. Nepal is encouraged to provide further information on the quantification of its NDC and to exceed this target with international support.
Nepal’s unconditional target is “1.5°C Paris Agreement compatible”. The “1.5°C Paris Agreement compatible” rating indicates that Nepal’s fair share target is consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. Nepal’s fair share target does not require other countries to make comparably deeper reductions or greater effort, and is in the most stringent part of its Fair Share range.
In Nepal, land use and forests are a significant emissions sink.
Assessment in progress.