RELEASE: China's new target unlikely to drive down emissions

China’s new 2035 climate target, announced at the UN, marks a shift from emission and energy intensity targets to, for the first time, setting absolute emission reduction targets, but the target it is unlikely to drive down emissions, the Climate Action Tracker said today.

"Given China is both the world's largest emitter and a leader in clean energy, this new target could have been a major opportunity for China to help the world reach the global climate goals," says the Climate Action Tracker's China lead, NewClimate Institute analyst Norah Zhang.

"However, our calculations show the new target is unlikely to further drive down emissions, as China is already set to achieve this target with the policies it has in place. This is disappointing as China has the opportunity to decarbonise faster.“

The goals of 3,600 GW of wind and solar capacity and a 30% non-fossil share in primary energy are both less ambitious and overly conservative compared with the CAT current policy scenarios.

The other concern for the CAT is that the target is for net emissions which would include the land and forestry sector (LULUCF), not absolute emissions. This makes it less transparent.

2025 could mark the year of a peak in China’s emissions if momentum in the clean energy transition continues through year-end. Strong growth in clean energy contributed to a 1% year-on-year decline in CO₂ emissions in the first half of 2025, extending a downward trend that began in March 2024. China is the powerhouse driving the global energy transition, supplying 80% of solar panels, 60% of wind turbines, and 75% of electric vehicles worldwide.

China's overall target, for the first time, covers all economic sectors and all greenhouse gases, following its pledge to peak CO₂ emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060.

2030 targets: more work to do

The CAT has rated China's 2030 target as "Highly Insufficient" according to modelled domestic pathways limiting warming to 1.5 °C.

China is unlikely to meet its 14th Five Year Plan (FYP) target of an 18% reduction in carbon intensity from 2020 levels by 2025.  It would need to undertake significantly more action to achieve its 2030 NDC target of a 65% reduction in carbon intensity from 2005 levels. 

China has already exceeded two of its 2030 NDC targets ahead of schedule:

• Wind and solar capacity reached 1,673 GW by June-2025, exceeding the 2030 target of 1,200 GW;
• Forest stock volume, targeted to increase by around 6 billion m³ from 2005 levels (at around 12.5 billion m³), already surpassed 20 billion m³ in 2024.

China is also on track to achieving its 2030 NDC target of increasing the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to “around 25%”.

"We expect China to update these 2030 targets alongside setting targets for 2035, in order to maintain momentum for climate action before 2030. Given China has already met some of its 2030 targets, ratcheting them up could increase progress. We look forward to the 15th Five Year Plan to see whether it contains increased 2030 action."

CAT Media team:
press@climateactiontracker.org