Ahead of the climate talks starting in Bonn on Monday, the Climate Action Tracker today published an analysis of government progress since COP26 in Glasgow.
Summary of findings
- Despite the clear warning on the extreme dangers of exceeding 1.5°C warming from the IPCC, progress on new, more ambitious 2030 climate targets and participation in sectoral initiatives have stalled since COP26 in Glasgow. This goes against the clear agreement of the Glasgow Pact to update national 2030 climate targets in 2022.
- Without increased government action, the world will still emit twice the greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 than is allowed under the 1.5°C limit of the Paris Agreement. The world is heading to a warming of 2.4°C with 2030 targets and even higher, 2.7°C, with current policies.
- With this looming emissions gap in 2030, it is important that all governments revisit and strengthen their climate targets. It is not enough for them to make marginal or no improvements.
- If the EU, the USA and China were to increase their NDC values by 5 to 10 percentage points, this would only narrow the 17–20 GtCO2e gap by a further 3–4 GtCO2e or around 20%. The EU is the primary candidate for being the first large country to update it NDC, as the agreement to increase the renewable target would lead to overachievement of its NDC.
Comment from the CAT:
Bill Hare, CEO, Climate Analytics:
“The world appears to be sleepwalking to disaster. Governments appear to think taking more action is too hard. What will be more difficult is dealing with a three degree world. Already this year we’ve seen horrific impacts, like the heatwave in India and Pakistan, and floods in the same region. This is just the beginning.”
Niklas Höhne, NewClimate Institute:
“We need to see action, whether it’s signing up to the sectoral initiatives released in Glasgow, or ramping up renewables. The EU could take the lead as it’s already set to overachieve its renewables targets. It would be good to see at least one big emitter to step up and take a lead now to bring others along.”