India already on track to meet new 2035 target by - or before - 2030

India is likely to be able to achieve its newly-announced 2035 target - to increase its non-fossil capacity to 60% - by, or even before, 2030 under the policies it already has in place, and will lead to emissions continuing to rise, the Climate Action Tracker said today.

"India has missed an opportunity to come up with a national, economy-wide 2035 target to cut greenhouse gas emissions," said CAT India expert Dr Nandini Das.

As with its 2030 NDC, India’s 2035 targets are formulated in a way that makes their scope and ambition difficult to assess. Ultimately, CAT calculations show these new targets will allow India's emissions to continue rising and remain far from the levels India could achieve in practice.

The final quantification of India’s 2035 intensity target depends on how updated GDP is measured. Based on the GDP projection by the Reserve Bank of India and IMF (2024), this target will not bring any real emission reductions, given India’s fast-growing GDP.

Similarly, a non-fossil capacity target for 2035 does not necessarily result in a proportional decline in emissions unless it translates into actual electricity generation. India has already achieved 50% non-fossil capacity, but the share of non-fossil sources in total generation remains comparatively low.

India has also missed an opportunity to strengthen its 2030 targets, which the CAT rates as "Highly insufficient" for the non-fossil capacity target and "Insufficient" for the emissions intensity target. This is particularly relevant given that India surpassed its target of 50% non-fossil capacity in 2025 ahead of schedule, driven by record solar and wind investments.

The energy intensity target was only strengthened by 2% points (from 45% in 2030 to 47% in 2035), meaning it is unlikely to drive significantly more ambitious action.

The CAT’s latest analysis shows that India is still on track to meet its 2030 goals and both targets can be meet with current policies. However, projected emissions in 2030 have been rising with each assessment, highlighting that the targets could be strengthened to reduce absolute emissions..

"India has increased coal production, and electricity demand - driven in part by extreme heat - is rising, and renewable energy alone is currently unable to offset this," added Das.

The CAT commended India on communicating a separate target for the land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sink, along with the increased transparency of a corresponding base year. However, India should primarily focus on its domestic reductions by decarbonising all sectors of the economy rather than relying on forestry sinks.

1.5°C compatible targets for India
(see briefing from August 2025)

As global GHG emissions need to be cut roughly in half by 2030 to be in line with the 1.5°C warming limit, large emitters like India need to get their emissions onto a downward trajectory.

• An unconditional NDC in line with 1.5°C compatible fair share pathways for India would translate to absolute economy-wide emissions reductions of 106% above 2005 levels by 2030 and 87% above 2005 levels by 2035 (excluding LULUCF). We expect India to be able to achieve these reductions with its own resources.
• A conditional NDC in line with 1.5°C compatible modelled domestic pathways for India would require absolute economy-wide emission reductions of 54% above 2005 levels by 2030 and 21% above 2005 levels by 2035 (excluding LULUCF). Achieving this level of action will only be possible if India receives significant international support and finance.

What the CAT would want to see in India's NDC

• 2035 & 2030 targets: a 2035 target and an updated 2030 target that is presented as an absolute, economy-wide unconditional emissions reduction target aligned with its 1.5°C fair share and specify the support needed—in finance, technology, and capacity-building—to achieve its 1.5°C modelled domestic pathway. Greater transparency in how targets are calculated and reported would further enhance the credibility and effectiveness of India’s climate commitments.
• LULUCF target: while the communication of a separate target for LULUCF in India's 2035 NDC is commendable, and increases transparency, India should primarily focus on its domestic reductions by decarbonising all sectors of the economy rather than relying on forestry sinks.

CAT Media team:
press@climateactiontracker.org