REACTION: China's 15th five year plan

China released its 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP) during the Two Sessions. The plan reinforces the rapid expansion of clean energy, but it does not translate this momentum into stronger binding emissions targets.

A central climate target in the plan is a 17% reduction in CO₂ emissions per unit of GDP by 2030 from 2025 levels (starting at 3.8% by 2026). This is lower than the 18% reduction target set for the 14th FYP period (2021-2025), which China failed to meet according to calculations by Climate Action Tracker.

However, intensity targets allow emissions to move upwards and international good practice is to move away from these towards absolute mission reduction targets as the main focus, and China needs to do that soon. If China’s GDP grows conservatively at the lower bound of its 2026 annual target (4.5%), the proposed carbon‑intensity target would still permit roughly a 3% increase in absolute carbon emissions by 2030.

The plan places strong emphasis on expanding clean energy. It includes a target to double non-fossil energy over the next ten years, underscoring the continued priority China is giving to clean energy development. However, the CAT cannot quantify this goal until the official documents are released: it is unclear whether this refers to share, capacity, or generation, and there is no specified baseline year.

Unfortunately, this latest plan does not match the urgency of action and the need for China to move into a leadership position on climate action globally.

"China's 15th five year plan is a missed opportunity. While it does continue the strong emphasis on clean energy development, it could have gone further,” said Norah Zhang, Climate Action Tracker's China country lead.

"In 2025, renewable electricity generation in China grew faster than overall electricity demand, which helped reduce coal-fired power generation and lowered CO₂ emissions in the power sector. However, the new five year plan does not update the 2030 target for newly-installed solar and wind capacity, which China already achieved in 2024. By not updating these targets, the new plan misses an opportunity to create additional momentum through more ambitious goal setting for 2030 and beyond."

Climate Action Tracker will provide a full, quantitative analysis in its next China update.