RELEASE: CAT downgrades US to "Critically insufficient"

The Climate Action Tracker has reviewed US climate action under the Trump Administration, and has downgraded the country's rating from "Insufficient" to "Critically insufficient," in the most significant rollback of policies the project has ever analysed.

The Trump Administration is pursuing an agenda to systematically repeal federal climate targets, policies, and funding for climate change mitigation, blocking progressive actors, while encouraging the production and consumption of fossil fuels at home and abroad, completely reversing the previous Administrations’ course on climate action.

The US has now withdrawn from the Paris Agreement, annulling the Biden Administration's climate targets for 2030, 2035 and 2050. The Trump Administration’s policies and actions will significantly slow—but not stop—emission reductions in the US. As a result, the US will be even further off track from aligning its emissions with a 1.5°C trajectory.

According to the CAT's analysis, the US emissions under the Trump Administration will drop by 19%-30% in 2030 below 2005 levels, excluding emissions from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF), while the Biden Administration was on track to reduce emissions by 29%-39% in 2030 below 2005 levels (excl. LULUCF).

Go to US assessment

"It is shocking how rapidly and how systematically the Trump Administration has moved to roll back efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, while aggressively expanding support for the production and consumption of fossil fuels, in defiance of clear market signals" said the assessment's lead author Finn Hossfeld, from CAT partner group NewClimate Institute.

"At a time when the US is witnessing record climate impacts, from wildfires to floods and intense storms and tornadoes, our new US assessment tells a sorry tale of a government’s unconditional support for fossil fuels and its complete disregard for long-term climate consequences," he said.

"This is the most aggressive, comprehensive and consequential climate policy rollback the CAT has ever analysed," said NewClimate's Prof Niklas Höhne.

"The sliver of good news is that there are still a number of state governments determined to continue along the path of decarbonisation," concluded Höhne.

"The Trump Administration’s massive support for expanding fossil fuels and unwinding clean energy rollout means the US is being left behind, particularly as China ramps up production of renewable energy, electric vehicles and other clean technology. This could become a fossil fuel industry-inspired debacle for the US economy," said Bill Hare CEO of Climate Analytics, the other CAT partner organisation.

Trump Administration rollbacks:

• Oil and gas production is set to increase, as the Trump Administration is using emergency powers to rapidly expand oil and gas drilling on federal lands and waters, in a country that's already the world’s largest producer of crude oil and fossil gas.
• The deployment of wind and solar will slow substantially as more fossil-gas power capacity is added. The OBBB terminates federal tax incentives for wind and solar power generation that were expanded by the IRA and were driving growth in renewables. The sudden permit cancellation of an already 80% built windfarm causes significant risks for future projects. The US plans to develop more new fossil gas-fired power plants than any other country, locking in substantial additional emissions from the power sector over the coming decades. Beyond fossil gas, the Trump Administration is promoting coal-fired power generation as a way to meet rising electricity demand. The EPA has proposed repealing all emissions regulations for fossil fuel-fired power plants.
• Incentives for electric vehicles (EVs) are phased out, while the regulatory framework for vehicle emissions is weakened.
• The OBBB incentivises energy and emissions-intensive industry in the US and abroad.
• Measures for improving efficiency and increasing electrification in the buildings sector are terminated
• Net forest sinks are threatened by land conversion, an increased demand for timber products, and a higher frequency of natural disturbances from climate change.

Go to US assessment

CAT Media team:
press@climateactiontracker.org