RELEASE: Mid-year check on climate plans: not much to analyse

The lack of government action to improve their 2030 climate targets and submit ambitious 2035 targets is putting the 1.5˚C target at high risk of multi-decadal overshoot that would have drastic consequences for people and ecosystems globally, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) said today.

In an update on climate progress, released at the mid-year climate talks in Bonn, Germany, the CAT noted a clear trend where none of the new targets submitted so far by the roughly 40 governments the CAT tracks have strengthened their 2030 targets, a crucial necessity given the need to halve emissions by 2030.

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Only 11 of the countries the CAT assesses have submitted a 2035 climate target, despite an early deadline this year, with just one - the UK - putting forward a domestic 2035 target that would be 1.5C compatible if it increased international finance.

"A failure to substantially increase 2030 targets would likely lead to a multi-decadal, high overshoot of the 1.5˚C limit, even if followed by strong 2035 targets, which themselves must be 1.5 compatible," said Bill Hare CEO of Climate Analytics.

"And let's be clear: overshooting the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit would be a very serious political failure. Numerous scientific assessments have shown that there is sufficient technological and economic capacity to reduce emissions fast enough, but the major obstacle is political will. We hope that the Brazilian COP30 presidency has a plan to push for a massive increase in 1.5°C aligned NDC ambition but a present there’s no such plan in sight.”

CAT countries account for around 85% of global emissions. Including the 10 additional submissions made by non-CAT countries, 22 countries had submitted new targets by 19 June 2025, together representing 19% of 2023 global emissions.The remaining CAT countries yet to submit their NDCs account for approximately 68% of global emissions.

"We had planned to add up the impact of the new NDCs, but there is barely anything to quantify and virtually no change since Baku in 2024. Many of the submissions are vague, the NDCs of the large countries that would make a difference like the EU, China and India are still missing, or they are under pressure, as with the US," said Ana Missirliu of NewClimate Institute.

The CAT is publishing a series of recommendations for 2035 targets: the EU and China today, with Australia, Brazil, Indonesia, India and South Africa to follow in the coming days.

To keep the 1.5°C goal within reach, governments must strengthen their 2030 targets to help close the 19-23 GtCO₂e emissions gap and halve global emissions by the end of the decade. They must also put forward robust 2035 targets that put the world on track to reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions in the second half of the century.

"The opportunity to course-correct is still within reach. Renewable energy is growing exponentially, as is the uptake of EVs," said Ana Missirliu.

"Investments in clean energy are now double those for fossil fuels, particularly oil and gas, for the first time, while investment in clean manufacturing capacity is growing rapidly."

The gap between targets and 1.5˚C has grown, signalling a weakening, not strengthening, of climate action. For example, both Canada and Switzerland have set 2035 targets that are stronger than their 2030 targets, but the gap between their 2035 targets and their respective modelled domestic pathways have increased compared to 2030.

The CAT also warned that governments are increasingly relying on land sector sinks to strengthen their targets rather than prioritising the urgently needed reductions in fossil fuel use for energy, industry, transport and other sectors. Governments should report their land sector targets separately.

An increasing number of countries are looking at relying on buying international credits through the Paris Agreement's Article 6, to meet their targets. The Paris Agreement requires Article 6 to be used to increase ambition, not to weaken it.

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