The Climate Action Tracker has updated its estimates of global progress towards the Paris Agreement goals, with some positive and negative findings:
Significant improvement on climate action globally, despite US rollbacks
- 0.2°C improvement in climate action since 2016, reducing projected warming by 2100 to 3.4°C. For the first time since the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) began in 2009, the CAT has identified a significant improvement in implementing climate policy action over the past year, most significantly in China and India.
- Current policies are projected to reduce emissions by 1.7 GtCO2e in 2030 compared to estimates in 2016. The size of the gap between current policy pathways and the Paris Agreement-compatible benchmark is estimated to be 24–27 GtCO2e in 2030.
- Factoring in planned, but not yet implemented, policies and a continuation of recent developments, projected emissions would be even 4.1 GtCO2e lower in 2030 compared to last year, leading to a warming estimate of 3.1°C.
CO2 emissions have flattened
CO2 emissions have flattened in the last few years, but it is too soon to call a peaking of global GHG emissions, which needs to happen by around 2020 to meet the Paris Agreement’s warming limits.
- Although some large emitters, including China, the EU and India have either reduced—or slowed—their GHG emissions growth rate, currently implemented policies are expected to result in a further growth of global GHG emissions by about 9–13% between 2020–2030.
2100 Warming Projections
Significant deterioration in the effect of the Paris Agreement
Due substantially to President Trump’s announced intention to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, there has been a significant deterioration in the effect of Paris Agreement commitments (NDCs)—by about 0.3°C.
- Following a US withdrawal, if all other governments fully implemented their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs or pledges) there would be a median global temperature increase of 3.2°C (3.16°C) above pre-industrial levels in 2100, compared to 2.8°C (2.84°C) estimated in 2016. The 2017 NDC warming estimate, in probabilistic terms, represents a likely (66% or greater) chance of being 3.5°C or below.
- This increase in warming is mostly due to the US’s intention to withdraw from the Paris Agreement: we dropped the US NDC and its long-term (2050) pledge from the CAT global pathways.
- Compared to our 2016 assessment, there has been an increase—of 1.1 GtCO2e—in the emissions gap between the NDCs and the emissions pathway consistent with the Paris Agreement’s long-term global warming goal. The CAT estimates the size of the emissions gap to be 22–26 GtCO2e in 2030.
2030 Emissions Gaps
Not in line with the long-term warming limit
The majority of NDCs are not in line with a fair contribution to meet the Paris Agreement’s long-term warming limit:
- 24 governments have set insufficient targets; of these, 16 governments have implemented policies that will not even result in achievement of their targets.
- Only seven governments have implemented 1.5°C or 2°C compatible targets and of these, four are not backed up by sufficient policy action
- The CAT assessment covers 32 countries, which are collectively responsible for about 80% of global GHG emissions.