The Climate Action Tracker with this paper is pleased to have the opportunity to provide input to the Talanoa Dialogue. Climate Action Tracker assesses countries’ mitigation targets and actions and aggregates them at the global level. This submission focuses on global results, country level information is available on our website.
“Where are we” compared to “where do we want to go”?
- The majority of NDCs assessed by the CAT are not in line with a fair contribution to meet the Paris Agreement’s long-term warming limit:
- The CAT assessment covers 32 countries, which are collectively responsible for about 80% of global GHG emissions.
- 24 governments have set insufficient targets; of these, 16 governments have implemented policies that will not even result in achievement of their targets.
- Only seven governments have implemented 1.5°C or 2°C compatible targets and of these, four are not backed up by sufficient policy action.
- The size of the gap between current policy pathways and the Paris Agreement-compatible benchmark is estimated to be 24–27 GtCO2e in 2030.
- Unless NDCs and policies are strengthened, the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal will be out of reach.
- Global GHG emissions need to peak around 2020 to meet the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C warming limits.
- Although some large emitters have either reduced—or slowed—their GHG emissions growth rate, currently implemented policies are expected to result in a further growth of global GHG emissions by about 9–13% between 2020–2030.
- As reported by the International Energy Agency, global energy-related CO2 emissions were stable in the period 2014–2016 but grew by 1.4% in 2017 reaching a historic high of 32.5 Gt. In other words, 2017 saw a resumption of emissions growth after three years of remaining flat, illustrating the need for additional policies to achieve emissions peaking around 2020.
- The full implementation of current Paris Agreement commitments (NDCs) would lead to median global temperature increase in 2100 of 3.2°C, and the currently implemented national policies lead to a temperature increase in 2100 of 3.4 °C.
- If all governments fully implemented their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs or pledges) there would be a median global temperature increase of 3.2°C (3.16˚C) above pre-industrial levels in 2100. The warming estimate, in probabilistic terms, represents a likely (66% or greater) chance of being 3.5°C or below.
- The currently implemented national policies lead to 3.4°C in 2100.
- Factoring in planned, but not yet implemented policies, and a continuation of recent developments, projected emissions would be 4.1 GtCO2e lower in 2030 compared to last year, leading to a warming estimate of 3.1°C.
“How do we get there?”
- All key sectors—energy generation, road transport, buildings, industry, forestry and land use, and commercial agriculture—have to begin major efforts to cut emissions so that total global emissions start to decline by, latest, 2020. By 2025 they should have accelerated these efforts in order to reach globally aggregated zero carbon dioxide emissions by mid-century, and zero greenhouse gas emissions overall roughly in the 2060s.
- The electricity sector needs to undertake the fastest transformation and must be fully decarbonised by 2050.
- No new coal-fired power plants can be built under a 1.5°C pathway, and global emissions from coal must come down by 30% by 2025—and 65% by 2030.
- Similarly, the future of natural gas in the power sector is limited in a Paris Agreement-compatible world, even as a bridge fuel, and remaining emissions would need to be compensated by negative emissions by 2050. Higher reliance on gas, even with carbon capture and storage, implies higher reliance on negative emissions technologies
- The past growth rate of renewable power options needs to be maintained and power systems prepared for their integration to reach a full decarbonisation.
- In the transportation sector zero-emission passenger vehicles need to reach a dominant fleet share by around 2035 and all new sales must be zero-emissions by then, for the world to meet the Paris Agreement’s lower warming limit of 1.5°C.
- Short-term steps in the building sector include that all new buildings be fossil-free and near-zero energy by 2020 and that building renovation rates are increased from less than 1% in 2015 to 3-5% by 2020.
- The industry sector needs to shift to the most efficient and least emissions-intensive production methods, with all new installations built with the best available low carbon technology standards from 2020 onwards.
- For the agriculture sector reducing emissions through changes in farming practices alone will not be enough to limit global warming to 1.5°C, but changing our diets and reducing food waste could make significant additional reductions, which calls for a much more holistic approach.