China

China proposed its updated NDC targets in 2020, and has now officially submitted its updated NDC on 28 October 2021.

China’s updated submissions announce its intention to peak carbon dioxide emissions “before 2030” (an improvement from its previous “To achieve the peaking of carbon dioxide emissions around 2030 and making best efforts to peak early”) and reach carbon neutrality “before 2060”. A net zero target aiming for zero carbon dioxide emissions in 2060 would mean that other countries have to reach net zero CO2 well before 2050. If China’s net zero target were to cover all GHG emissions, its long-term strategy could be within range of mid-century Paris Agreement compatible emissions levels, although compatibility also depends on the shape of the pathway. Due to the size of China’s emissions, this difference can make up to 0.1°C more or less warning in 2100.

The updated NDC strengthened and expanded previous 2030 targets. The CAT rates the updated NDC as “Highly insufficient”. China updated all its separate NDC targets and added an additional fifth target:

1. Peaking carbon dioxide emissions “before 2030”, instead of “around 2030 and efforts to peak early”;
2. Lower carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by “over 65% in 2030” compared to 2005 levels, up from “by 60- 65%”;
3. Share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to “around 25%’ in 2030, up from “around 20%’;
4. Increase forest stock volume by around 6 billion cubic metres in 2030 from the 2005 level, up from the previous 4.5 billion cubic metres from the 2005 level.
5. Bring its total installed capacity of wind and solar power to over 1.2 billion kilowatts by 2030.

According to our analysis, these updated NDC targets are more ambitious than the first NDC. Taking all targets of the new NDC together we arrive at an emissions level of 13.2 to 14.0 GtCO2e in 2030, compared 13.7 to 15.2 GtCO2e of the first NDC. While these NDC target revisions are all improvements, the expected emission levels are well within China’s projected current policies emissions trajectory (13.2 to 14.5 GtCO2e), meaning China could still achieve many of its NDC targets without substantially increasing mitigation policy. Compared to our previous analysis when the proposed NDC targets were first announced in 2020, the estimates have changed due to our incorporation of new climate and energy policies as well as our revision to China’s post-COVID 19 GDP and emission trends (see country analysis).

The NDC target range is a summary of the individual NDC targets:

• The update of the peaking year has not been specified in the updated NDC, leading the CAT to interpret this as meaning China has no plans to substantially deviate from its projected continued emissions increase towards 2030. To quantify the peaking target we take the bottom end of our current policy range, including post-COVID trends. The emissions peaking level is thus projected to be 13.2 GtCO2e . This determines the lower end of the CAT’s NDC quantification and is lower today compared to our previous NDC assessment, as our new projections take into account the updated impact of the pandemic on the economy.
• The carbon intensity target improvement results in emissions of roughly 15.3 GtCO2e in 2030 (previous upper range was 16.9 tCO2e in the first NDC) but does not represent more ambition from current policy projections. This estimate has risen compared to our estimates when the targets were proposed in 2020, due to post-COVID GDP projections for China being revised upwards.
• We quantify the non-fossil share target improvement to lead to a level of 14.0 GtCO2e in 2030 (down from 15.2 GtCO2e): a sizable improvement yet one that still suggests China’s emissions will grow rather than fall over the next decade. According to CAT’s analysis, China would readily achieve a non-fossil share of primary energy consumption of 23% in 2030 under current policies. We take this target as the upper end of the NDC range as it is the most binding compared to other NDC targets (except for peaking).
• The non-fossil share target suggests greater renewable capacity is needed than the new 1,200 GW solar and wind capacity target, as it is a minimal increase from what would occur under current policies. Achievement of only this target would lead to emission levels of 14.2 GtCO2e in 2030. To achieve the renewable installation target, China would need to only add approximately 71 GW of renewable capacity annually from 2019-2030, which is consistent with recent trends.

For details on the methodology and assumptions, see here.

Although the strengthened non-fossil fuel share target and carbon neutrality target are positive developments for China’s climate ambition, China has not yet committed to a peaking year before 2030 nor to a fixed or absolute emissions target, which leads to uncertain emissions trajectories to 2030 and makes the target difficult to assess.

The recent submission suggest the “before 2060” carbon neutrality goal only covers carbon dioxide. The Paris Agreement-compatiblity of this target depends on emissions coverage and how fast the transition happens. If the target only covers carbon dioxide, the timeline may not be Paris Agreement-compatible, where global CO2 emissions would have to reach zero by 2050. The next question is whether the new proposed NDC target is aligned with the net-zero target. With a significant increase this decade, the reduction to zero in only 30 years will be a huge challenge. Without further clarification (expected in forthcoming sector strategies and policy documents), there is uncertainty as to the consistency of the NDC and the “carbon neutrality before 2060” targets. China’s plans to decarbonise rapidly after 2030 heavily depend on substantial forestry sinks as well as large-scale implementation of CCS and CCUS technologies that are not currently viable.