Status of the 2020 NDC update process
Countries have submitted new NDC targets (33 countries plus the EU27)
Countries we analyse have submitted stronger NDC targets (3 countries plus the EU27)
Countries we analyse did not increase ambition
Countries we do not analyse submitted new NDC targets
Countries have proposed new NDC targets
Countries we analyse have proposed stronger NDC targets
Countries we analyse stated they will not propose more ambitious targets
Countries we do not analyse proposed new NDC targets
Countries have not updated targets
Countries we analyse
Did not increase ambition*
Countries we don't analyse
Submitted a new target
* This category includes countries where the updated NDC target is nominally stronger, but does not lead to real additional reduction, as the target results in higher emissions than estimated under current policies. It also includes countries that enhanced the ambition of the target by a marginal amount. Japan has resubmitted its previous NDC unchanged in March 2020, but announced that it will enhance its NDC still in 2021. New Zealand has resubmitted the unchanged target, but has indicated that it is reviewing whether it needs to be changed to make it consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit, and this review is expected in 2021.
The CAT is currently working on the analysis of the NDC submissions from Nepal, Costa Rica, Peru, Kenya, UAE, Mexico, Argentina, Colombia, South Korea, Ethiopia and Australia which will be published on this website soon.
About the CAT Climate Target Update Tracker
When the gavel came down on the Paris Agreement in 2015, governments formally acknowledged that their national climate targets collectively would not meet the goal of limiting warming to 1.5˚C. So they undertook to do the first update of their 2030 targets which are part of a country’s “nationally determined contribution” (NDC) by 2020, backed by the IPCC Special Report on 1.5˚C, which was completed in October 2018.
The Climate Action Tracker is tracking these updated targets and, for the 36 countries we analyse, will provide a detailed analysis on how much of an improvement each updated target is, and how much it is aligned to the goals of the Paris Agreement. Countries that are not part of the 36 CAT countries and that put forward or propose updated targets for 2030 will be listed but not analysed.
The most important mitigation element of an updated target, in our view, is the emission levels in the target year, because this is “what the atmosphere sees”. To be viewed as making progress, an updated NDC must result in lower emission levels than the previous one. Under the Paris Agreement governments have universally agreed that successive NDCs should reflect a country’s highest possible ambition and represent a progression beyond the current NDC and contribute toward meeting the Paris Agreement’s 1.5˚C warming limit.
In Paris, governments also agreed to submit long-term strategies by 2020 and more than a dozen countries have done so. A growing number of governments have also adopted mid-century net-zero targets. While these developments are encouraging it is critical that 2030 targets are aligned with pathways that can meet mid-century net-zero targets. The IPCC SR1.5 has shown that if the required emission reductions for 2030 or not met then the ability to limit warming to 1.5˚C is compromised. In a number of cases mid-century net-zero targets are not matched by 2030 targets consistent with their achievement.
The Climate Action Tracker will also monitor governments who have signalled an intent not to update their NDCs in 2020. Not updating NDCs by 2020 with an increase in ambition is a clear violation of the decisions to give effect to the Paris Agreement made at the time of its adoption in 2015 (Decisions 1/CP.25 paragraphs 23 and 24) and of the relevant provisions of the agreement (Article 4.3) which requires Parties successive NDC submissions to be more ambitious. Simply resubmitting or recommunicating an NDC without improving ambition significantly also qualifies in this category.
Note: If you have more up-to-date information, please contact us via firstname.lastname@example.org.