CAT Climate Target Update Tracker

Climate targets

Status of the NDC update process

  • 133

    Countries have submitted new NDC targets (132 countries plus the EU27)

    • 23

      Countries we analyse have submitted stronger NDC targets (22 countries plus the EU27)

    • 12

      Countries we analyse did not increase ambition

    • 98

      Countries we do not analyse submitted new NDC targets

  • 1

    Country has proposed a new NDC target

    • 1

      Country we analyse has proposed a stronger NDC target

    • 0

      Countries we analyse stated it will not propose more ambitious targets

    • 0

      Countries we do not analyse proposed new NDC targets

  • 33

    Countries have not updated targets

91.3% Global emissions covered by new NDC submissions
72.5% Global population covered by new NDC submissions

Countries we analyse

Countries we don't analyse

* This category includes countries where the updated NDC target is nominally stronger, but does not lead to real additional reduction, as the target results in higher emissions than estimated under current policies. It also includes countries that enhanced the ambition of the target by a marginal amount.

** The CAT is currently working on assessments of the NDC submissions from the Philippines, Ethiopia, Argentina, Saudi Arabia and Brazil. Global emissions and population figures include these countries.

*** NOTE: Turkey ratified the Paris Agreement on 11 October 2021 and submitted its 2015 INDC target to the UNFCCC NDC registry at that time. We do not consider this to be an updated NDC submission and it is not reflected in our numbers. Turkey should submit an updated NDC target as soon as possible.

About the CAT Climate Target Update Tracker

When the gavel came down on the Paris Agreement in 2015, governments formally acknowledged that their national climate targets collectively would not meet the goal of limiting warming to 1.5˚C. So they undertook to do the first update of their 2030 targets which are part of a country’s “nationally determined contribution” (NDC) by 2020, backed by the IPCC Special Report on 1.5˚C, which was completed in October 2018.

The Climate Action Tracker is tracking these updated targets and, for the 40 countries we analyse, will provide a detailed analysis on how much of an improvement each updated target is, and how much it is aligned to the goals of the Paris Agreement. Countries that are not part of the 40 CAT countries and that put forward or propose updated targets for 2030 will be listed but not analysed.

The most important mitigation element of an updated target, in our view, is the emission levels in the target year, because this is “what the atmosphere sees”. To be viewed as making progress, an updated NDC must result in lower emission levels than the previous one. Under the Paris Agreement governments have universally agreed that successive NDCs should reflect a country’s highest possible ambition and represent a progression beyond the current NDC and contribute toward meeting the Paris Agreement’s 1.5˚C warming limit.

In Paris, governments also agreed to submit long-term strategies by 2020 and more than a dozen countries have done so. A growing number of governments have also adopted mid-century net-zero targets. While these developments are encouraging it is critical that 2030 targets are aligned with pathways that can meet mid-century net-zero targets. The IPCC SR1.5 has shown that if the required emission reductions for 2030 or not met then the ability to limit warming to 1.5˚C is compromised. In a number of cases mid-century net-zero targets are not matched by 2030 targets consistent with their achievement.

The Climate Action Tracker will also monitor governments who have signalled an intent not to update their NDCs in 2020. Not updating NDCs by 2020 with an increase in ambition is a clear violation of the decisions to give effect to the Paris Agreement made at the time of its adoption in 2015 (Decisions 1/CP.25 paragraphs 23 and 24) and of the relevant provisions of the agreement (Article 4.3) which requires Parties successive NDC submissions to be more ambitious. Simply resubmitting or recommunicating an NDC without improving ambition significantly also qualifies in this category.

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