Norway

Norway’s updated NDC represents a progression beyond its previous submission, but is still not compatible with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Under its updated NDC, Norway will cut emissions by at least 50% by 2030, aiming towards 55% below 1990 levels, an improvement compared to its previous 2030 target of an ‘at least 40%’ cut.

Norway will implement its NDC jointly with the EU and Iceland. As part of this agreement, Norway has committed to achieving net zero emissions from its land sector in 2030, pursuant to EU land sector regulations. However, Norway is permitted to use up to 1.6 MtCO2e in net removals from the land sector towards meeting its original NDC. Assuming this amount is unchanged as part of its NDC update, Norway’s emission reduction targets equate to 47-52% below 1990 levels by 2030 once these net removals are excluded.

In absolute terms, Norway’s updated NDC will result in greater emission reduction cuts. The achievement of the emissions reduction target will result in emissions between 24.6 and 27.2 MtCO2e in 2030, compared to 32.2 MtCO2e under the original NDC (excluding LULUCF net removals). However, the scale of change is not enough to improve the country’s CAT rating. Both the original and updated NDC fall within the “Insufficient” range.

The “Insufficient” rating indicates that Norway’s climate commitment is not consistent with holding warming to below 2°C, let alone to 1.5°C as required under the Paris Agreement, and is instead consistent with warming between 2°C and 3°C. If all countries were to follow Norway’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C. This means Norway’s climate commitment is at the least stringent end of what would be a fair share of global effort, and is not consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit, unless other countries make much deeper reductions and comparably greater effort.

Norway has increased the transparency of its NDC by following the guidance in Decision 4/CMA.1.

Norway has indicated that should its target go beyond the updated NDC of the European Union, it will use the market mechanisms available under the Paris Agreement (Article 6) to fulfil the extent of the difference.

Norway is to be commended for submitting its NDC by the deadline of nine months ahead of COP. It is only one of three countries to do so. However, it still has a way to go before it reaches its highest possible ambition and Paris Agreement compatibility.