Ukraine submits more ambitious NDC and 2060 net zero target, but still lacks 1.5°C ambition level
Ukraine submitted its updated NDC on 31 July 2021, significantly strengthening the country’s 2030 target but still falling short of achieving a 1.5°C-compatible ambition level. The NDC further includes the goal of reaching climate neutrality no later than 2060.
The CAT is in the process of updating its rating system. We will issue a new rating of Ukraine’s targets and policy action later this year.
CAT analysis of NDC
On 31 July 2021, Ukraine submitted its updated NDC to the UNFCCC. The submission includes the target of a 65% reduction below 1990 levels by 2030 including LULUCF, slightly more ambitious than the range proposed at the Climate Ambition Summit in December 2020 (58% - 64% below 1990). The submitted target is a significant improvement of its previous target of at least a 40% reduction below 1990 level by 2030.
The new 2030 target equates to an emissions level of 323 MtCO2e excl. LULUCF compared to 544 MtCO2e for the old NDC target. The CAT assessment shows that currently implemented policies would lead to an emissions level of 403 to 434 MtCO2e in 2030. If Ukraine further implements the policies it has planned, it could reach or even overachieve its updated NDC target with a projected emissions level of 275 to 379 MtCO2e excl. LULUCF in 2030, which highlights room for a more ambitious NDC target.
The updated NDC includes the new goal of climate neutrality by 2060. In March 2021, the Cabinet of Ministers had already approved the “National Economic Strategy until 2030", which outlines how climate neutrality is to be achieved no later than 2060. This is a decade ahead of what is needed globally per the IPCC special report on 1.5°C, in line with Ukraine's capacity to mitigate, and a step forward from Ukraine’s 2050 Green Energy Transition Concept presented in January 2020, under which the country aimed to achieve climate neutrality by 2070.
We will further assess Ukraine’s fair share contribution and net zero target when we roll out the new rating system later this year.
The updated NDC was developed with a team of national and international experts, including broad public participation through a working group comprised of representatives of all relevant ministries, scientific institutions, business associations and non-governmental organisations. The NDC document is substantiated by an official analytical review report which illustrates emissions pathways and reduction potentials for each sector, outlining key challenges, implemented policies and measures as well as recommendations for future action. The detailed documentation of modelling assumptions and sectoral targets increases transparency compared to the previous submission.
Large emission reductions for 2030 compared to 1990 levels are modelled for the buildings, electricity, energy supply, transport, and industry sectors, while emissions from waste and agriculture are expected to roughly stay at 1990 levels.
The updated NDC covers all gases and economic sectors, but is limited to Ukraine’s geopolitical boundaries: territories currently engaged in conflict are excluded for the time being. The NDC text states that the target is conditional on a stable political environment and trade conditions as well as access to sufficient international finance. The NDC text and supporting information further outline adaptation-related issues and considerations on gender equality.