Argentina

Critically Insufficient4°C+ World

NDCs with this rating fall well outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would exceed 4°C.

Highly insufficient< 4°C World

NDCs with this rating fall outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach between 3°C and 4°C.

Insufficient< 3°C World

NDCs with this rating are in the least stringent part of a country’s “fair share” range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

2°C Compatible< 2°C World

NDCs with this rating are consistent with the 2009 Copenhagen 2°C goal and therefore fall within a country’s “fair share” range, but are not fully consistent with the Paris Agreement long term temperature goal. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming could be held below, but not well below, 2°C and still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit.

1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDCs in the most stringent part of its “fair share” range: it is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Role model<< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDC is more ambitious than what is considered a “fair” contribution: it is more than consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Summary table

Paris Agreement targets

NDC update: In December 2020, Argentina submitted an updated NDC. Our analysis of its new proposed target is here.

Argentina’s NDC, submitted in 2016, includes two absolute emissions reduction targets for 2030 (Government of Argentina, 2016a). The unconditional target limits emissions to 483 MtCO₂e in 2030 including LULUCF and, according to our calculations, to 422 MtCO₂e in 2030 (excl. LULUCF and recalculated using Global Warming Potentials (GWP) from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)). This unconditional target is equivalent to 32% above 2010 levels and 81% above 1990 levels excluding LULUCF.

The conditional target, including LULUCF, limits emissions to 369 MtCO₂e in 2030 and, according to our calculations, to 322 MtCO₂e in 2030 (excl. LULUCF and recalculated using GWP from IPCC AR4). This is equivalent to a 1% increase above 2010 levels and 39% above 1990 levels, excluding LULUCF.

Argentina is in the process of developing its national long-term low GHG emissions development strategy (LTS) for submission to the UNFCCC, which is expected to be presented before the end of the year. Once this LTS process is completed, the government intends to use the new LTS to inform the NDC revision process scheduled for 2021 (Secretaria de Ambiente y Desarrollo Sustentable, 2019). This timeline should be moved forward and a stronger target consistent with the Paris Agreement temperature limit should be submitted in 2020.

CAT ratings are based on emissions excluding the LULUCF sector. To obtain the NDC emissions level excluding LULUCF, the CAT assumes that the share of the LULUCF emissions in 2030 will be similar to the share of these emissions in the NDC’s BAU scenario.

2020 pledge

Argentina submitted a list of unilateral and supported mitigation actions being undertaken across the energy efficiency, renewable energy, biofuels, forest management and waste management sectors. According to the submission “these initiatives have a direct and positive consequence in the emission reduction of GHG, contributing to the ultimate objective of the Convention” (Secretariat of Environment and Sustainable Development, 2010).