Argentina

Overall rating: Highly insufficient

Policies and action against modelled domestic pathways: Insufficient; < 3°C World

NDC target against modelled domestic pathways: Insufficient; < 3°C World

Unconditional NDC target against fair share: Highly insufficient; < 4°C World

Climate finance: Not assessed

Net zero target: year
2050; Comprehensiveness rated as
Poor

Land use & forestry: historically considered a
Source

Target Overview

In its NDC, Argentina has set an unconditional target of not exceeding 349 MtCO₂e in 2030. This target covers all sectors. The CAT excludes emissions from land use, land use change and forestry from this target and converts it to GWP AR4, resulting in 315.9 MtCO₂e in 2030. The CAT rates this target as “Insufficient” compared to required domestic efforts, and “Highly insufficient” when compared to Argentina’s fair share.

In November 2022, Argentina submitted a long-term strategy (LTS) to the UNFCCC that includes a target to reach GHG neutrality by 2050 (Government of Argentina, 2022a).

ARGENTINA — Main climate targets

2030 NDC target
Formulation of target in NDC	Not exceeding the net emission of 349 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2030
Absolute emissions level in 2030 excl. LULUCF	315.9 MtCO₂e in 2030 [34% above 1990] [1% below 2010]
Status	Submitted on 02 November 2021

Net zero target
Formulation of target	Argentina aims to reach GHG neutrality by 2050
Absolute emissions level in 2050 excl. LULUCF	n/a (to be updated soon)
Status	Submitted on 06 November 2022

[NOTE: assumptions made to quantify these targets are included in the Assumptions section]

NDC Updates

Argentina’s new, 2021, target is just 2% below the previous target submitted in December 2020, but 26% below its first NDC target, which provided an unconditional target to limit 2030 emissions to 437 MtCO₂e (excl. LULUCF). Argentina’s revised NDC covers emissions from all sectors and covers CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, HFCs and PFCs. The country’s first NDC also covered sulphur hexafluoride (SF6).

This new target represents an increase in emissions of 34% above 1990 levels and a 1% decrease below 2010 levels (excl. LULUCF).

The process of updating the NDC was carried out in parallel and informed by development of Argentina’s long-term strategy (LTS), which was submitted in November 2022. Argentina acknowledges that achieving this target requires structural long-term changes and a gradual action plan in the short term.

Although the new target shows a rise in climate mitigation ambition, both NDC and LTS targets need to be reflected in the short term with concrete actions and sectoral plans, such as phasing out the exploration and extraction of fossil fuels (e.g. at the Vaca Muerta gas field), eliminating fossil fuel subsidies, and addressing the country’s focus on meat production and exports.

ARGENTINA — History of NDC updates	2016 NDC	2020 NDC	2021 NDC
1.5°C compatible
Stronger target	N/A
Economy-wide coverage
Fixed/absolute target

ARGENTINA	2016 NDC	2020 NDC	2021 NDC
Formulation of target in NDC	Unconditional target: Argentina shall not exceed a net emission of 483 MtCO₂e	Unconditional target: The Argentine Republic is committed to an absolute, economy wide and unconditional goal of not exceeding net emissions of 359 MtCO₂e in 2030	Unconditional target: Argentina’s updated goal is to not exceed net emissions of 349 MtCO₂e in 2030
Absolute emissions level excl. LULUCF	Unconditional target: 437.3 MtCO₂e by 2030	Unconditional target: 325 MtCO₂e by 2030	Unconditional target: 315.9 MtCO₂e by 2030
Emissions compared to 1990 and 2010 excl. LULUCF	Unconditional target: 86% above 1990 emissions by 2030 37% above 2010 emissions by 2030	Unconditional target: 38% above 1990 emissions by 2030 2% above 2010 emissions by 2030	Unconditional target: 34% above 1990 emissions by 2030 1% below 2010 emissions by 2030
CAT rating	*Overall rating:** Critically insufficient	NDC target against modelled domestic pathways: Insufficient NDC target against fair share: Highly insufficient	NDC target against modelled domestic pathways: Insufficient NDC target against fair share: Highly insufficient
Sector coverage	Economy-wide	Economy-wide	Economy-wide
Separate target for LULUCF	No	No	No
Gas coverage	CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, HFCs, and PFCs	CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, HFCs, and PFCs	CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, HFCs, and PFCs
Target type	Absolute emissions limit	Absolute emissions limit	Absolute emissions limit
Explanation why the target is a fair contribution towards the global goal	Yes If all the unconditional measures accounted in the present NDC were implemented, the contribution of the Argentina to the needed global effort for the year 2030 in order to achieve the goal of maintaining the temperature increase below 2ºC regarding preindustrial levels would be very close to the proportion of its current emissions (0,6% of the reductions compared to 0,7% of the emissions). This indicator shows the justice of the presented goal.	Yes This new goal is ambitious, since it is equivalent to a total decrease in emissions of 19% by 2030, compared to the historical peak reached in 2007, and a reduction of 25,7% compared to the previous NDC submitted in 2016. The proposed goal is absolute, economy wide and unconditional, in compliance with article 4.4 of the Paris Agreement. It is also fair and equitable, with its fulfilment, Argentina would hold a participation of 0.9% with respect to global emissions.	Yes Through its goal, Argentina will keep a participation of less than 0.9% in global emissions, according to the projection of the Emissions Gap Report 2019.
Explanation why the target is a fair contribution towards the global goal	Not applicable	Yes	Yes

* Before September 2021, all CAT ratings were based exclusively on fair share and only assessed a country’s target

Target development timeline & previous CAT analysis

12.12.2020 Argentina proposed an NDC update at the Climate Ambition Summit
30.12.2020 Argentina submitted a stronger NDC target

CAT rating of targets

High resolution

The CAT rates NDC targets against what a country should be doing within its own borders as well as what a fair contribution to achieving the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal would be. For what we call the ‘fair share target’, we consider both country’s domestic emission reductions and any emissions it supports abroad through the use of market mechanisms or other ways of support, as relevant.

The CAT rates Argentina's target as "Insufficient" when rated against modelled domestic pathways ("NDC target against modelled domestic pathways"), and "Highly insufficient" when rated against the fair share contribution ("NDC target against fair share"). Argentina does not specify a conditional target or an international element in its NDC, so we rate the unconditional target against the two rating frameworks.

CAT ratings are based on emissions excluding the LULUCF sector. To obtain the NDC emissions level excluding LULUCF, the CAT assumes that the share of the LULUCF emissions in 2030 will be similar to the share of these emissions in the NDC’s BAU scenario. For more details, please see the Assumptions section.

NDC target against modelled domestic pathways: Insufficient

We rate Argentina’s unconditional climate target of “not exceeding the net emission of 349 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2030” from its November 2021 revised NDC target as “Insufficient” when compared with modelled domestic emissions pathways. We refer to this as Argentina’s “NDC target against modelled domestic pathways”, or what they will do within their own territory. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that Argentina’s NDC target in 2030 needs substantial improvements to be consistent with the 1.5°C temperature limit. If all countries were to follow Argentina’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

Argentina’s NDC target compared to modelled domestic pathways is very close to the “Almost sufficient” rating. If Argentina would reduce its target by 14 MtCO2eq, it would receive an “Almost sufficient” rating.

Whether Argentina should receive some climate finance from abroad to reduce its emissions is a matter of debate. Our methods do not provide a clear answer to this question. On balance, the CAT methodology shows that provision of a small but important amount of international support is consistent with the wide range of literature on fair share contributions to meeting the Paris Agreement's goals (figure above shows it to provide a small amount of support). However, that literature does not reflect recent economic developments in Argentina, and we consider it unlikely that Argentina is currently in a position to provide support. In any case, Argentina’s NDC target achieved with its own resources (NDC target against fair share) would still need to be increased significantly to be in line with the 1.5°C limit.

Unconditional NDC target against fair share: Highly insufficient

We rate Argentina’s unconditional 2030 climate target from November 2021 as “Highly insufficient” when compared with its fair-share contribution to climate action. We refer to this as Argentina’s “NDC target against fair share”. The “Highly insufficient” rating indicates that Argentina’s climate target is not at all consistent with any interpretation of a fair-share contribution within the 1.5°C temperature limit.

Further information on how the CAT rates countries (against modelled domestic pathways and fair share) can be found here.

Net zero and other long-term target(s)

We evaluate the net zero target as: Poor.

In November 2022, Argentina submitted a long-term strategy (LTS) to the UNFCCC that includes a target to reach GHG neutrality by 2050 (Government of Argentina, 2022a). Argentina has previously announced its aim to set a net zero CO2 target (“carbon neutrality”) by 2050 in its second NDC submitted in 2020 (Government of Argentina, 2020b).

Argentina’s net zero target currently does not cover most of the good practice elements identified by the CAT net zero methodology. The target explicitly covers all gases and sectors of the economy, but the government fails to disclose other key information such as the role of carbon dioxide removals.

Argentina could improve the target architecture and transparency of its net zero target. For example, the government could set separate emission and reduction targets and clarify its accounting methodology for LULUCF. It could further improve transparency on its planning process, the use of tools such as pathway modelling and specific sectoral policy objectives to reach net zero.

For the full analysis click here.