Bhutan

Critically Insufficient4°C+ World

NDCs with this rating fall well outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would exceed 4°C.

Highly insufficient< 4°C World

NDCs with this rating fall outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach between 3°C and 4°C.

Insufficient< 3°C World

NDCs with this rating are in the least stringent part of a country’s “fair share” range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

2°C Compatible< 2°C World

NDCs with this rating are consistent with the 2009 Copenhagen 2°C goal and therefore fall within a country’s “fair share” range, but are not fully consistent with the Paris Agreement long term temperature goal. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming could be held below, but not well below, 2°C and still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit.

1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDCs in the most stringent part of its “fair share” range: it is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Role model<< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDC is more ambitious than what is considered a “fair” contribution: it is more than consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

The Paris Agreement requires global GHG emissions to peak as soon as possible “and to undertake rapid reductions thereafter in accordance with best available science, so as to achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of [GHGs] in the second half of this century” (Paris Agreement, Article 4). It is mainly for this reason that the Climate Action Tracker rates mitigation pledges excluding LULUCF (Land Use Land Use Change and Forestry). Moreover, LULUCF is currently a source of global emissions, and mitigation measures in this sector are subject to uncertainty and difficult to assess.

In this context, Bhutan sits in the unusual position of being carbon neutral today, with carbon sinks balancing for sources of emissions. In other words, Bhutan has already reached a target that the Paris Agreement requires (globally) only for mid-century.

For this reason, we decided to upgrade Bhutan to “2°C compatible,” despite its NDC technically falling into the “Insufficient” rating. At the same time, we note a concern that projected increasing energy and industry emissions could bring Bhutan into a difficult position for the long-term low-carbon transition, risking a breakdown of its carbon neutrality. Indeed, there is room for enhancing Bhutan’s level of ambition, which should be the “highest possible” in light of “different national circumstances” (Paris Agreement, Article 4.3), for example by setting a target excluding LULUCF.

Further information about the risks and impacts associated with the temperature levels of each of the categories is available here.