Bhutan

Critically Insufficient4°C+ World

NDCs with this rating fall well outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would exceed 4°C.

Highly insufficient< 4°C World

NDCs with this rating fall outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach between 3°C and 4°C.

Insufficient< 3°C World

NDCs with this rating are in the least stringent part of a country’s “fair share” range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

2°C Compatible< 2°C World

NDCs with this rating are consistent with the 2009 Copenhagen 2°C goal and therefore fall within a country’s “fair share” range, but are not fully consistent with the Paris Agreement long term temperature goal. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming could be held below, but not well below, 2°C and still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit.

1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDCs in the most stringent part of its “fair share” range: it is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Role model<< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDC is more ambitious than what is considered a “fair” contribution: it is more than consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Pledges and targets

BHUTAN — Summary of pledges and targets

PARIS AGREEMENT
Ratified	Yes
2030 unconditional target(s)	Maintain carbon neutrality, incl. LULUCF
Coverage	Carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, incl. LULUCF
LULUCF	Carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, incl. LULUCF

COPENHAGEN ACCORD
2020 target(s)	Maintain carbon neutrality, incl. LULUCF

LONG-TERM GOAL(S)
Long-term goal(s)	Maintain carbon neutrality, incl. LULUCF

NDC Update: In June 2021, Bhutan submitted its second NDC. Our analysis of its new proposed target is here. We re-issued our November 2020 assessment to correct some NDC and LULUCF figures.

In its NDC, Bhutan reaffirmed its goal to remain carbon neutral, by ensuring that GHG emissions will not exceed the sink capacity of its forests. The government also called on the international community to support its effort to achieve this target. However, it has not specified a concrete financial or technical support requirement.

The forestry sector is pivotal for the Bhutanese carbon neutrality pledge, as its sequestration capacity currently exceeds GHG emissions from other sectors and thus leads to carbon neutrality. Forests currently cover 70% of Bhutan’s land, and it has a constitutional mandate to maintain this share above 60%. In its NDC, the Government of Bhutan pledges to maintain current levels of forest cover (Royal Government of Bhutan, 2015). Government estimates found that the forestry sector in Bhutan provides ecosystem services worth USD 14 billion per year (Royal Government of Bhutan, 2012).

Bhutan is expected to update its NDC, and it is receiving support from UNDP to strengthen targets and actions with funding of USD 802,500 (UNDP, 2019).