Chile

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Critically Insufficient4°C+ World

NDCs with this rating fall well outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would exceed 4°C.

Highly insufficient< 4°C World

NDCs with this rating fall outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach between 3°C and 4°C.

Insufficient< 3°C World

NDCs with this rating are in the least stringent part of a country’s “fair share” range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

2°C Compatible< 2°C World

NDCs with this rating are consistent with the 2009 Copenhagen 2°C goal and therefore fall within a country’s “fair share” range, but are not fully consistent with the Paris Agreement long term temperature goal. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming could be held below, but not well below, 2°C and still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit.

1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDCs in the most stringent part of its “fair share” range: it is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Role model<< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDC is more ambitious than what is considered a “fair” contribution: it is more than consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

We rate Chile’s NDC “Highly Insufficient”. If Chile were to update their NDC target to its conditional pledge, its CAT rating would improve to the “insufficient” category, which means the targets would be at the least stringent end of what would be a fair share of contribution from Chile to global mitigation efforts.

The “Highly insufficient” rating indicates that Chile’s climate commitment in 2030 is not consistent with holding warming to below 2°C, let alone limiting it to 1.5°C as required under the Paris Agreement, and is instead consistent with warming between 3°C and 4°C: if all countries were to follow Chile’s approach, warming could reach over 3°C and up to 4°C. This means Chile’s climate commitment is not in line with any interpretation of a “fair” approach to the former 2°C goal, let alone the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Chile has formulated its NDC targets as a reduction of the emissions intensity of GDP – the estimation of absolute emissions thus directly depend on projections of GDP – making the absolute emissions levels from Chile’s targets uncertain. In recent updates we already updated the values based on new GDP data, resulting in a substantial improvement of their target from “Critically insufficient” to “Highly insufficient.”

The CAT ratings are based on climate commitments in NDCs. If the CAT were to rate Chile’s projected emissions levels in 2030 under current policies¹, we would rate Chile “Insufficient.” This indicates that Chile’s current policies in 2030 are not yet consistent with holding warming to below 2°C, let alone limiting it to 1.5°C as required under the Paris Agreement, and are instead consistent with warming between 2°C and 3°C: if all countries were to follow Chile’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

However, a rating of Chile’s projected emissions levels in 2030 under planned policies scenario² would result in “2°C compatible”, indicating that Chile’s planned climate policies in 2030 are within the range of what is considered to be a fair share of global effort but are not consistent with the Paris Agreement. This approach requires other countries to make deeper reductions and comparably greater effort to limit warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow Chile’s approach, warming could be held below—but not well below—2°C, and hence would still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C temperature limit.

Most effort sharing approaches lead to similar levels of emissions allowances for Chile. The upper (less stringent) end of the “Insufficient” range is determined by effort sharing approaches focusing on staged emissions reductions. To be in line with the most stringent approaches, which focus on capability, Chile would need even further emissions reductions.

Further information about the risks and impacts associated with the temperature levels of each of the categories.

1| Chile’s current policies scenario includes, in comparison to previous assessments, emissions reductions from the Electromobility Strategy and the retirement of the first eight coal-fired power plants.

2| Chile’s planned policies scenario includes, in comparison to previous assessments, a scenario compatible to the 2050 Energy strategy, emissions reductions from the Electromobility Strategy, the retirement of the first eight coal-fired power plants, and complete coal phase-out in 2040.