Current policy projections have been harmonised to historical emissions up to 2022. We derive our current policy projections using a few different sources.
For the upper range of our current policy projections, we use:
- Energy CO2 emissions: based on the Asian and Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) 2022 Outlook. As this scenario includes all current key policies, no additional calculations were added. These policies include Chile’s Energy Efficiency Law, the retirement of coal plants by 2040, with 65% of coal plant capacity shutting down before 2025, the National Electromobility Strategy, as well as its Hydrogen Strategy (APEC, 2022).
- Energy non-CO2 emissions: based on non-CO2 emissions projections from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2019).
- Industrial processes, agriculture, and waste emissions: based on Chile’s Fifth Biennial Update Report (BUR5) (Ministerio del Medio Ambiente, 2022).
For the lower range of our current policy projections, we use:
- All sectors, including energy: based on the ‘Transición tardía’ projections from Chile’s Fifth Biennial Report (Ministerio del Medio Ambiente, 2022).
For ‘other’ sector emissions in both scenarios, we have taken a 10-year historical trend (2010-2019) from PRIMAP (Gütschow and Pflüger, 2023).
We also compared our current policy projections to those from Observatorio de Carbono Neutralidad (across all sectors) harmonised to 2022 emissions, but this currently falls between the lower and upper end of our CPP (Observatorio de Carbono Neutralidad, 2024).
Some policy developments such as the update on the Distributed Generation Law (also referred to as the “Net Billing” Law) (Law 20.571), which triples the capacity threshold for installed capacity for projects of self-consumption, are not quantified due to lack of available data.