China
Critically Insufficient4°C+
World
NDCs with this rating fall well outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would exceed 4°C.
Highly insufficient< 4°C
World
NDCs with this rating fall outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach between 3°C and 4°C.
Insufficient< 3°C
World
NDCs with this rating are in the least stringent part of a country’s “fair share” range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.
2°C Compatible< 2°C
World
NDCs with this rating are consistent with the 2009 Copenhagen 2°C goal and therefore fall within a country’s “fair share” range, but are not fully consistent with the Paris Agreement long term temperature goal. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming could be held below, but not well below, 2°C and still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit.
1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible< 1.5°C
World
This rating indicates that a government’s NDCs in the most stringent part of its “fair share” range: it is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.
Role model<< 1.5°C
World
This rating indicates that a government’s NDC is more ambitious than what is considered a “fair” contribution: it is more than consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.
Sources
List of references
- Baxter, T. and Zhe, Y. (2019) The 14th Five Year Plan: what ideas are on the table?, China Dialogue. Available at: https://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/11434-The-14th-Five-Year-Plan-what-ideas-are-on-the-table- (Accessed: 23 October 2019).
- Bloomberg (2018) China Sets New Renewables Target of 35 Percent by 2030, Renewable Energy World. Available at: https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/2018/09/26/china-sets-new-renewables-target-of-35-percent-by-2030/#gref (Accessed: 16 November 2019).
- Bloomberg News (2018) ‘China Steps Up its Push into Clean Energy’, Bloomberg, 26 September. Available at: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-26/china-sets-out-new-clean-energy-goals-penalties-in-revised-plan.
- Bloomberg News (2019) China mull goal of 60% of auto sales to be electric by 2035, Bloomberg. Available at: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-06/china-mulls-target-for-60-of-auto-sales-to-be-electric-by-2035 (Accessed: 22 November 2019).
- BloombergNEF (2018) New Energy Outlook 2018. Available at: https://bnef.turtl.co/story/neo2018?teaser=false.
- BloombergNEF (2019a) Electric Vehicle Outlook 2019. Available at: https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle-outlook/.
- BloombergNEF (2019b) New Energy Outlook 2019: Executive Summary, Bloomberg New Energy Outlook. Available at: https://bnef.turtl.co/story/neo2019?teaser=true.
- Carbon Pulse (2019) ‘Chinese official hints at 2020 ETS start’, Carbon Pulse, 31 March. Available at: https://carbon-pulse.com/72095/.
- Chen, A. (2018) ‘China’s soaring natural gas output unable to meet demand set loose in pollution fight’, Reuters, 5 February. Available at: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-pollution-gas-production/chinas-soaring-natural-gas-output-unable-to-meet-demand-set-loose-in-pollution-fight-idUSKBN1FP006.
- China Daily (2015) ‘Made in China 2025 strategy for auto industry’, 1 June. Available at: http://english.gov.cn/policies/infographics/2015/06/02/content_281475119391820.htm.
- China Electricity Council (2019) Mid-term evaluation and optimization of power: ‘13th Five-Year Plan’. Available at: http://shupeidian.bjx.com.cn/html/20190318/969403.shtml (Accessed: 23 October 2019).
- China National Renewable Energy Centre (2017) China Renewable Energy Outlook 2017. Available at: http://boostre.cnrec.org.cn/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/CREO-2017-EN-20171113-1.pdf.
- ChinaFAQs (2016) Building Energy Efficiency in China: Policies and Markets. Available at: http://www.chinafaqs.org/files/chinainfo/Building Energy Efficiency Fact Sheet_0.pdf.
- Climate Action Tracker (2016) The ten most important short-term steps to limit warming to 1.5°C. Climate Action Tracker. Available at: https://climateactiontracker.org/publications/the-ten-most-important-short-term-steps-to-limit-warming-to-15c/.
- Climate Analytics. (2019) Global and regional coal phase-out requirements of the Paris Agreement: Insights from the IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C. Available at: https://climateanalytics.org/media/report_coal_phase_out_2019.pdf (Accessed: 2 October 2019).
- Congressional Research Service (2019) The Made in China 2025 Initiative: Economic Implications for the United States. Available at: https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/IF10964.pdf.
- Darby, M. (2019a) ‘EU, China agree to work together on clean energy’, Climate Home News, 10 April. Available at: https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/04/10/eu-china-agree-work-together-clean-energy/.
- Darby, M. (2019b) ‘EU, China agree to work together on clean energy’, Climate Home News, April.
- Eckhouse, B. (2019) The U.S. Has a Fleet of 300 Electric Buses. China Has 421,000, Bloomberg. Available at: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-15/in-shift-to-electric-bus-it-s-china-ahead-of-u-s-421-000-to-300 (Accessed: 23 October 2019).
- Enerdata (2016) China confirms ban on new coal-fired power plant construction until 2018. Available at: http://www.enerdata.net/enerdatauk/press-and-publication/energy-news-001/china-confirms-ban-new-coal-fired-power-plant-construction-until-2018_37678.html (Accessed: 27 September 2016).
- Environmental Investigation Agency (2018) Blowing It: Illegal Production and Use of Banned CFC-11 in China’s Foam Blowing Industry. Available at: https://content.eia-global.org/posts/documents/000/000/761/original/Blowing-It_CFC11_Report_EIA.pdf?1531089183.
- Feng, H. (2018a) ‘China releases 2020 action plan for air pollution’, chinadialogue, 6 July. Available at: https://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/10711-China-releases-2-2-action-plan-for-air-pollution.
- Feng, H. (2018b) ‘China restarts coal plant construction after two-year freeze’, Climate Home News, 7 August. Available at: http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/08/07/china-restarts-coal-plant-construction-two-year-freeze/.
- Frankfurt School-UNEP Centre/BNEF (2018) Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2018. Available at: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1SmhaI-WAcmEMqR8R9oL5Fxn0cZ0kfY8Z/view.
- Gallagher, K. S. et al. (2019a) ‘Assessing the policy gaps for achieving China’s climate targets in the Paris Agreement’, Nature Communications, 10. Available at: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-09159-0.
- Gallagher, K. S. et al. (2019b) ‘Assessing the Policy gaps for achieving China’s climate targets in the Paris Agreement’, Nature Communications, 10. Available at: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-09159-0.
- GBPN (2018) China, Global Buildings Performance Network. Available at: http://www.gbpn.org/activities/china (Accessed: 28 September 2018).
- Government of China (2018) ‘The People’s Republic of China Second Biennial Update Report on Climate Change’. Available at: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/China 2BUR_English.pdf.
- Green, F. and Stern, N. (2017) ‘China’s changing economy: implications for its carbon dioxide emissions’, Climate Policy, 17(4), pp. 423–442. Available at: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14693062.2016.1156515?journalCode=tcpo20.
- Gütschow, J., Jeffery, L. and Gieseke, R. (2019) ‘The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series (1850-2016), V. 2.0. GFZ Data Services’. Available at: http://dataservices.gfz-potsdam.de/pik/showshort.php?id=escidoc:3842934.
- Hall, M. (2019) China confirms $435m solar subsidy budget for this year, PV Magazine. Available at: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/05/31/china-confirms-435m-solar-subsidy-budget-for-this-year/ (Accessed: 23 October 2019).
- Hang, A. (2019) Is China Ready for Subsidy-Free Renewables?, Greentech Media. Available at: https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/is-china-ready-for-subsidy-free-renewables#gs.qmlij0 (Accessed: 16 November 2019).
- Harada, I. (2019) ‘Beijing drops “Made in China 2025” from government report’, Nikkei Asian Review, 6 March. Available at: https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/China-People-s-Congress/Beijing-drops-Made-in-China-2025-from-government-report.
- Hua, F. et al. (2018) ‘Tree plantations displacing native forests: The nature and drivers of apparent forest recovery on former croplands in Southwestern China from 2000 to 2015’, Biological Conservation, 222, pp. 113–124. Available at: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Jianguo_Zhu2/publication/325313456_Tree_plantations_displacing_native_forests_The_nature_and_drivers_of_apparent_forest_recovery_on_former_croplands_in_Southwestern_China_from_2000_to_2015/links/5b05252645851588c6d49c1.
- Hua, F., Xu, J. and Wilcove, D. (2017) ‘A New Opportunity to Recover Native Forests in China’, Conservation Letters. Available at: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/conl.12396.
- IEA (2016a) Energy Technology Perspectives 2016. Paris, France: International Energy Agency.
- IEA (2016b) Energy Technology Perspectives 2016. Paris, France: International Energy Agency. Available at: http://www.iea.org/etp/etp2016/.
- IEA (2018a) CO2 emissions from fuel combustion (2018 edition). Paris, France.
- IEA (2018b) Global Energy & CO2 Status Report 2017. Available at: http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/GECO2017.pdf.
- IEA (2018c) World Energy Outlook 2018. Available at: https://www.iea.org/weo2018/.
- IEA (2019a) Global EV Outlook 2019 - Scaling up the transition to electric mobility. Paris, France: International Energy Agency. Available at: https://www.iea.org/publications/reports/globalevoutlook2019/ [accessed on 12 June 2019].
- IEA (2019b) World Energy Outlook. Paris. Available at: https://www.iea.org/weo2019/.
- IMF (2017) World Economic Outlook (October 2017) - Real GDP growth. Available at: http://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/KAZ (Accessed: 1 March 2018).
- IPCC (2018) Global Warming of 1.5°C: Summary for Policymakers. Available at: http://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_final.pdf.
- Irle, R. (2019) China NEV Sales for 2018, EVvolumes.com. Available at: http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/china/ (Accessed: 13 May 2019).
- Jotzo, F. et al. (2018) ‘China’s emissions trading takes steps towards big ambitions’, Nature Climate Change, 8, pp. 260–271. Available at: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0130-0.epdf?author_access_token=Xi5UzVwwhX6tiJ5u301kfdRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0Mgl1oK5YdFJyrQdS-KFGiJCU7UMJKtWYtn6OKSpg9qYSKqj0e1wf6V-fEKd2EwGLXjdwj8vG71sbe8oMdBymvlI9730VF1is-t6XdIQ2Kx1g%3D%3D.
- Jun, M. et al. (2019) Decarbonizing the Belt and Road - A Green Finance Roadmap. Available at: https://www.vivideconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Decarbonizing-the-Belt-and-Road-–Final-Report-English.pdf.
- Korsbakken, J. I., Andrew, R. and Peters, G. (2018) Guest post: China’s CO2 emissions grew less than expected in 2017. Available at: https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-chinas-co2-emissions-grew-less-expected-2017.
- Korsbakken, J. I., Andrew, R. and Peters, G. (2019) ‘Guest post: China’s CO2 emissions grew slower than expected in 2018’, Carbon Brief, 5 March. Available at: https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-chinas-co2-emissions-grew-slower-than-expected-in-2018?utm_campaign=Carbon%20Brief%20Daily%20Briefing&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Revue%20newsletter.
- Lin, J. et al. (2019) ‘China’s Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Future Trajectories and Mitigation Options and Potential’, Nature, 9. Available at: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-52653-0.pdf.
- Myllyvirta, L. (2019a) China’s power industry calls for hundreds of new coal power plants by 2030, Unearthed. Available at: https://unearthed.greenpeace.org/2019/03/28/china-new-coal-plants-2030-climate/ (Accessed: 23 October 2019).
- Myllyvirta, L. (2019b) Guest post: Why China’s CO2 emissions grew 4% during first half of 2019, Carbon Brief. Available at: https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-why-chinas-co2-emissions-grew-4-during-first-half-of-2019?utm_campaign=Carbon%20Brief%20Daily%20Briefing&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Revue%20newsletter.
- National Bureau of Statistics of China (2018) ‘China Statistical Yearbook 2018’. Available at: http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2018/indexeh.htm.
- National Bureau of Statistics of China (2019) Statistical Communiqué of the People’s Republic of China on the 2018 National Economic and Social Development. Available at: http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/201902/t20190228_1651335.html.
- NDRC (2016) 能源发展“十三五”规划. Available at: http://www.ndrc.gov.cn/zcfb/zcfbghwb/201701/W020170117350627940556.pdf.
- NEA (2018) 煤炭也能烧出低排放.
- Platts (2018) Factbox: China’s 2018 targets for energy and steel sectors. Available at: https://www.platts.com/latest-news/oil/singapore/factbox-chinas-2018-targets-for-energy-and-steel-27936461.
- Reklev, S. (2019) China set to drop absolute emission cap on ETS, says government advisor, Carbon Pulse. Available at: http://carbon-pulse.com/83117/.
- Reuters (2019) Chinese Belt and Road plan ‘may result in 2.7C warming’, Climate Home News. Available at: https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/09/02/chinese-belt-road-plan-may-result-2-7c-warming/ (Accessed: 21 October 2019).
- Shearer, C. et al. (2019) Boom and Bust 2019: Tracking the global coal plant pipeline. Available at: https://endcoal.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/BoomAndBust_2019_r6.pdf.
- Shearer, C., Brown, M. and Buckley, T. (2019) China at a crossroads: Continued support for coal power erodes country’s clean energy leadership. Available at: http://ieefa.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/China-at-a-Crossroads_January-2019.pdf.
- Shearer, C., Yu, A. and Nace, T. (2019) Out of Step: China is driving the continued growth of the global coal fleet. Available at: https://endcoal.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Out-of-Step-English-final.pdf.
- Shirouzu, N. and Jourdan, A. (2017) ‘China sets 2019 deadline for automakers to meet green-car sales targets’, Reuters, 28 September. Available at: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-china-electric/china-sets-2019-deadline-for-automakers-to-meet-green-car-sales-targets-idUSKCN1C30ZL.
- Song, R. (2019) Opportunities to Advance Mitigation Ambition in China: Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions (Working paper). Available at: https://wriorg.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/opportunities-advance-mitigation-ambition-china_0.pdf.
- Stanway, D. (2019) China solar installations to slow as subsidy cuts bite: executive, Reuters. Available at: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-solar/china-solar-installations-to-slow-as-subsidy-cuts-bite-executive-idUSKCN1VR08R (Accessed: 23 October 2019).
- UNEP (2019) Bridging the Gap – Enhancing Mitigation Ambition and Action at G20 Level and Globally - Pre-release version of a chapter in the forthcoming UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2019. Available at: https://newclimate.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/UNEP_Emissions_Gap_Report_2019_pre-release_chapter.pdf.
- Wang, H. et al. (2019) ‘China’s CO2 peak before 2030 implied from characteristics and growth of cities’, Nature Sustainability, 2, pp. 748–754. Available at: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-019-0339-6.
- Worldsteel Association (2018) Steel Statistical Yearbook 2018. Available at: https://www.worldsteel.org/en/dam/jcr:e5a8eda5-4b46-4892-856b-00908b5ab492/SSY_2018.pdf.
- Xinhua (2017) Beijing’s last large coal-fired power plant suspends operations. Available at: http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-03/18/c_136139334.htm (Accessed: 31 March 2017).
- Xu, M., Stanway, D. and Daly, T. (2018) ‘China could meet emissions pledge early; carbon market on track: officials’, Reuters, 23 May. Available at: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-climatechange/china-could-meet-emissions-pledge-early-carbon-market-on-track-officials-idUSKCN1IO1LD.
- Yang, L. and He, H. (2018) China’s Stage VI emissions standard for heavy-duty vehicles (final rule). Available at: https://www.theicct.org/publications/china’s-stage-vi-emissions-standard-heavy-duty-vehicles-final-rule.
- Zhou, L. et al. (2018) Moving the green Belt and Road Initiative: From words to actions. Available at: https://wriorg.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/moving-green-belt-and-road-initiative-from-words-to-actions.pdf?_ga=2.54789803.1085617515.1557489795-389990726.1550839734.
Further analysis
Latest publications
Stay informed
Subscribe to our newsletter