Targets
Target Overview
China officially submitted its updated NDC to the UNFCCC on October 28, 2021, ahead of COP26. The NDC update strengthened and expanded previous 2030 NDC targets and added a fifth new target. The update is an improvement from the country’s first NDC. At the time of the October 2021 announcement, we assessed the updated NDC to be slightly more ambitious than the then current policy projections. Our revised assessment of the country’s policies shows that China is expected to achieve the new NDC targets without a substantial increase in implementing mitigation policy. The CAT keeps China’s rating for its NDC targets as “Highly Insufficient”.
China also submitted its Mid-Century Long-Term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategy (LTS) with its NDC, containing the country’s commitment to reach “carbon neutrality before 2060”. The officially-submitted LTS implies China’s emissions coverage are only for carbon dioxide, whereas previously the CAT assumed the coverage was for all GHGs as was claimed by Xie Zhenhua and Tsinghua University. Due to the size of China’s emissions, the difference in emissions coverage could make up to 0.1°C more (CO2 only) or less (all GHGs) warming in 2100. Given the LTS submission does not meet the majority of our criteria for a best-practice approach in LTS formulation, we evaluate China’s net-zero target as “Poor”.
CHINA — Main climate targets |
---|
2030 NDC target | |||
---|---|---|---|
Formulation of target in NDC |
China’s updated NDC contains five overarching targets: 1. Peaking carbon dioxide emissions “before 2030” (up from the previous “around 2030 and making efforts to peak earlier”) and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. 2. Lower carbon intensity by “over 65%” in 2030 from the 2005 level, (up from the previous “by 60–65%”). 3. Share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to “around 25%” in 2030, (up from “around 20%”). 4. Increase forest stock volume by around 6 billion cubic metres in 2030 from the 2005 level, (previously 4.5 billion cubic metres). 5. Increase the installed capacity of wind and solar power to over 1,200 GW by 2030 (new target). |
||
Absolute emissions level in 2030 excl. LULUCF |
13.4–14.7 GtCO2e* [270–303% above 1990] [22–33% above 2010] |
||
Status | Submitted on 28 October 2021 |
Net zero & other long-term targets | |||
---|---|---|---|
Formulation of target | China will strive to reach a CO2 emissions peak before 2030, and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060 | ||
Absolute emissions level in 2050 excl. LULUCF |
5.6–5.8 GtCO2e [91–100% below 1990] [34–37% above 2010] |
||
Status | Submitted on 28 October 2021 |
*This range refers to the emissions range of two NDC targets expected to result in lowest emissions. The lower bound is the lowest estimate for the peaking target and the upper bound is the non-fossil share target. See the Assumptions tab for more details.
NDC Updates
CAT rating of targets
Net zero and other long-term target(s)
Further analysis
Latest publications
Stay informed
Subscribe to our newsletter