Ethiopia

In July 2021, Ethiopia submitted its updated NDC, committing to a 68.8% reduction below a revised business-as-usual (BAU) scenario conditional on international support (incl. LULUCF) (Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, 2021). This target also includes an unconditional component, a 14% reduction below BAU, which Ethiopia will undertake with its own resources. Ethiopia intends to achieve both of these targets primarily through reductions in its land sector emissions. The CAT rates Ethiopia’s unconditional NDC target as “1.5°C compatible” when compared to its fair share contribution and its conditional NDC target as “Critically Insufficient” when compared to modelled domestic pathways.

Ethiopia intends to become carbon neutral, but has not specified a target year (FDRE, 2015). The government is in the process of developing a Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategy.

The CAT rates NDC targets against what a fair contribution to achieving the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit would be, as well as against what needs to happen within a country’s own borders. Ethiopia will need international support to achieve the required reductions within its borders.

Ethiopia’s NDC target includes a portion that is unconditional, that it will achieve using its own resources. We rate that portion against its fair share contribution. The full NDC target will require international support to achieve and we rate that against the level of reductions needed within Ethiopia’s border.

Further information on how the CAT rates countries (against modelled pathways and fair share) can be found here.

The CAT rates Ethiopia’s conditional NDC target as “Critically insufficient” when compared to modelled domestic pathways. Ethiopia should also propose a conditional NDC target that brings emissions down towards decarbonisation with external support. Its current conditional target is only compatible with more than 4°C of warming and should be strengthened. Ethiopia should ask for additional support to implement additional policies and meet its conditional NDC target.

Ethiopia intends to achieve this target primarily through reductions in its land sector emissions. Yet, Ethiopia cannot ignore the growth in emissions in other sectors. It needs to strengthen its updated conditional NDC target further and will need additional international support to achieve this target.

Since the last assessment, the CAT has updated its methodology and pathways included for deriving modelled domestic pathways. As a result of these changes, Ethiopia’s target rating now falls into the ‘Critically insufficient’ category rather than the ‘Highly insufficient’ category. The target itself is unchanged since our last update.

The CAT rates Ethiopia’s unconditional NDC target as “1.5°C compatible”. The “1.5°C compatible” rating indicates that Ethiopia’s unconditional NDC target reflects the fair share for a least developed country consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. Ethiopia’s fair share target does not require other countries to make comparably deeper reductions or greater effort, and is in the most stringent part of its fair share range.

Ethiopia submitted its final updated NDC in July 2021, building on an interim NDC update submitted in December 2020 (Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, 2021).

Ethiopia commits to a 68.8% reduction below a revised business-as-usual (BAU) scenario conditional on international support (incl. LULUCF). This target includes an unconditional component, a 14% reduction below BAU, which Ethiopia will undertake with its own resources. This is an improvement from Ethiopia’s 2015 Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC), which did not include an unconditional component (FDRE, 2015).

The 2021 updated NDC includes a revision of the BAU scenario used as a reference for the mitigation targets. While the revised BAU emissions level in 2030 is projected to be only slightly higher than in the 2015 INDC, it anticipates much higher emissions from LULUCF emissions in 2030. The updated, 2021 NDC further indicates the LULUCF sector would play a much larger role in achieving the targeted emissions reductions than in the 2015 INDC. Ethiopia intends to achieve its conditional and unconditional targets primarily (around 85% of total reductions) through reductions in its land sector emissions. Due to this increased reliance on the land sector to achieve its updated targets, we do not consider Ethiopia’s updated NDC an increase in ambition.

The unconditional target results in an emissions level of 269 MtCO₂e in 2030 (excl. LULUCF), while the conditional target would limit emissions to 237 MtCO₂e (see Assumptions for details on how these figures were calculated).

The CAT rates Ethiopia’s conditional target (“internationally supported target”) as “Critically Insufficient” when compared to modelled domestic pathways and its unconditional target (“fair share target”) as “1.5°C compatible” when compared to its fair share contribution.

* Before September 2021, all CAT ratings were based exclusively on fair share and only assessed a country’s target.

Analysis of earlier NDC developments:

• 22.07.2021: Ethiopia submits final updated NDC
• 31.12.2020: Ethiopia submits NDC update committing to first unconditional emissions target, though progression unclear

Ethiopia intends to become carbon neutral without specifying a target year (FDRE, 2015). Ethiopia is in the process of developing a Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategy with support from the Global Green Growth Institute, including developing business as usual and net zero emissions scenarios. We evaluate the target as “Target information incomplete”.

For the full analysis, click here.

Under the Copenhagen Accord, Ethiopia proposed several Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) in the power, transport, forestry, agriculture and waste management sectors (FDRE, 2010). Limited information is available on the status of implementation of the NAMAs (UNFCCC, 2019).