The Gambia

This assessment includes our policy analysis for The Gambia from 27 November 2020 translated into our new rating methodology. We have not undertaken any new analysis of The Gambia’s climate polices. We will analyse The Gambia fully in the coming months, at which time its ratings may change.

Our assessment of The Gambia's Second NDC from September 2021 is here.

The CAT rates The Gambia’s climate targets and policies as “1.5°C Paris Agreement compatible.” The “1.5°C Paris Agreement compatible” rating indicates that The Gambia’s climate policies and commitments are consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit.

The Gambia’s current policies are “1.5°C Paris Agreement compatible” when compared to their fair-share contribution. The “1.5°C Paris Agreement compatible” rating indicates that The Gambia’s climate policies and action are consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. The Gambia’s climate policies and action do not require other countries to make comparably deeper reductions.

The Gambia has an ambitious conditional emissions reduction target that would bend its emissions downwards; however, its current policies are not on track to meet this target. These policies are also off track when compared with modelled domestic pathways. The Gambia will need to implement more stringent policies to meet its conditional target, for which it will need additional support.

We expect Gambia’s greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 to be around 5.7-7.4% lower than in 2019. The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to have severe socioeconomic consequences for The Gambia. As with the rest of the world, short-term emissions have decreased due to the economic standstill. Heavily dependent on tourism, the country’s GDP growth is projected to decline by 2% to 3.1% in 2020 compared to a growth of 6% in 2019. In addition to international financial support, the Gambian government plans to boost its recovery with support for the production and construction industries to create additional jobs in the agriculture and real estate sectors.

One of the pillars of The Gambia’s strategy to achieve its emission reductions targets is the uptake of renewable energy technologies. After a slow start, the Gambia is now rapidly increasing its renewable energy capacity with a total of 170 MW in solar PV projects in the pipeline for 2021-2025, with partial finance from the World Bank and the European Investment Bank.

At a time when countries should move away from fossil fuels The Gambia has set targets to start oil extraction in the country by 2019 and to stop importing oil by 2025. In 2018, the Australian oil company FAR started drilling The Gambia’s first offshore well in 40 years and in 2019, the Gambian government signed another deal with BP to explore oil and gas off its coast.

The Gambia’s first NDC covers the period to 2025; however, the country does provide indicative targets for 2030. The CAT rates these indicative targets. The CAT rates The Gambia’s conditional indicative 2030 target (its “internationally supported target”) against modelled domestic pathways as “1.5°C Paris Agreement compatible”. The “1.5°C Paris Agreement compatible” rating indicates that The Gambia’s internationally supported target is consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. The Gambia’s internationally supported target does not require other countries to make comparably deeper reductions.

The Gambia submitted its updated NDC on 12 September 2021. The update is not reflected in this assessment and will be assessed when we update The Gambia later this year.

The CAT rates The Gambia’s unconditional indicative 2030 target (its “fair share target”) against the fair share contribution as “1.5°C Paris Agreement compatible”. The “1.5°C Paris Agreement compatible” rating indicates that The Gambia’s fair share target is consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. The Gambia’s fair share target does not require other countries to make comparably deeper reductions or greater effort, and is in the most stringent part of its Fair Share range.

Our assessment of The Gambia’s net zero target, which is currently under discussion, will follow later in the year.