Germany

Critically Insufficient4°C+ World

NDCs with this rating fall well outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would exceed 4°C.

Highly insufficient< 4°C World

NDCs with this rating fall outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach between 3°C and 4°C.

Insufficient< 3°C World

NDCs with this rating are in the least stringent part of a country’s “fair share” range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

2°C Compatible< 2°C World

NDCs with this rating are consistent with the 2009 Copenhagen 2°C goal and therefore fall within a country’s “fair share” range, but are not fully consistent with the Paris Agreement long term temperature goal. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming could be held below, but not well below, 2°C and still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit.

1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDCs in the most stringent part of its “fair share” range: it is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Role model<< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDC is more ambitious than what is considered a “fair” contribution: it is more than consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Summary table

Paris Agreement targets

The German Parliament unanimously ratified the Paris Agreement in September 2016. Germany did not submit its own NDC, but is part of the EU, which committed to reducing emissions by “at least 40%” below 1990 levels by 2030 (UNFCCC, 2015).

National targets 2020, 2030 and 2040

In its Climate Action Plan 2050 (German Ministry of Environment, 2016), Germany had set itself domestic reduction targets for 2020, 2030 and 2040, of which only the target for 2030 is now pursued.

The former 2020 target of at least 40% reductions below 1990 levels is no longer pursued. The German government has already admitted that it will not reach its 2020 target, and studies suggest that even with implementing all measures in the proposed Climate and Energy Package Germany will reach its 2020 target only with a five-year delay, i.e. by 2025 (DIW Berlin, 2019).

The emissions reduction target for 2030 is 55% below 1990 levels, which is now inscribed in the draft climate law, now under parliamentary discussion (German Government, 2019a). However, Germany is not on track to meet this target: it would need to be strengthened to be compatible with the Paris Agreement (Höhne et al., 2019).

The former target of a 70% reduction by 2040 below 1990 levels was dropped in the current draft climate law, as a “more ambitious target will be needed” (German Federal Ministry for the Environment Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety, 2019).

Long-term goal

The draft Climate Law includes “the commitment to pursue greenhouse gas neutrality by 2050 as a long-term goal” (German Government, 2019a). This now formally replaces the earlier goal of a 80% to 95% reduction.