India

India officially submitted two of the four targets announced by Prime Minister Modi at COP26 as part of its updated NDC submitted in August 2022. These two targets are to reduce its emissions intensity by 45% below 2005 levels by 2030 and to increase the share of non-fossil power capacity to 50% by 2030. On paper, both of these are stronger targets than the original NDC submissions, which had a 33-35% emissions intensity target and 40% non-fossil power capacity, but will not drive real world emission reductions.

The target of creating a 2.5-3 GtCO₂ carbon sink by 2030 is unchanged, and was included in both the first and the updated NDC.

* For details on what we do for our Optimistic Target global temperature estimate for India, please see the Assumptions tab.

We take India’s emissions intensity target as its unconditional contribution to limiting warming to 1.5°C and rate that against what a fair contribution would be (‘fair share target').

India has indicated that achieving the 50% non-fossil capacity target will require international support. We take this target as being conditional on international support (its ‘internationally supported target’).

The CAT methodology for rating NDCs is based on GHG emissions from fossil fuels. We exclude the land sector from our calculations and thus do not evaluate the contribution of India’s carbon sink expansion efforts.

We estimate that India’s non-fossil capacity target would result in an emissions level of between 4.3-4.4 GtCO₂e (excluding LULUCF) in 2030.

India is already on track to achieve 60-67% non-fossil capacity by 2030 under current policies, thus achieving only the 50% in the NDC would actually result in higher emissions. We rate this target as "Critically insufficient" when compared to the level of reductions needed within India to be 1.5°C compatible.

Substantial improvement is needed in this target and India will need international support to get onto a 1.5°C pathway. Even if India is not responsible for paying for all reductions, it should plan on how fast it could reduce its emissions if there were sufficient international support available, and not lock itself into a high carbon future. This would mean beginning to phase out coal use, adopting emission reduction plans across the economy, and clearly specifying what international support it requires to achieve 1.5°C compatible target.

We estimate that India’s emissions intensity target would result in an emissions level of 4.4 GtCO₂e (excluding LULUCF) in 2030. This emissions level is above where we project India’s emissions to be in 2030 under current policies and action.

We rate the intensity target as “Insufficient”. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that India’s emissions in 2030 needs substantial improvements to be consistent with the 1.5°C temperature limit. India’s target is at the least stringent end of what would be a fair share of global effort and is not consistent with the 1.5°C temperature limit unless other countries make much deeper reductions and comparably greater effort. If all countries were to follow similar approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

With its updated NDC, India’s fair share rating improved by one category from "Highly insufficient" to "Insufficient", however a stronger target is needed if India is to contribute its fair share.

Further information on how the CAT rates countries (against modelled domestic pathways and fair share) can be found here.

India’s original NDC had three main mitigation elements: an emissions intensity target, a non-fossil fuel based electric power capacity target and the enhancement of carbon sinks. India strengthened the intensity and non-fossil capacity targets as part of its NDC update, going from 33-35% to 45% for the intensity target and 40% to 50% for the non-fossil capacity target. The carbon sink target was unchanged.

While stronger on paper, India will already achieve with its current level of climate action and will not drive further emissions reductions. Its overall CAT rating remains unchanged at "Highly insufficient", but the rating of its NDC against what its fair contribution is has improved by one category, though is still "Insufficient".

In essence, India has replaced its unambitious first NDC targets with targets close to its current level of climate action. Our estimate for its 2030 emissions based on current policies is consistent with a 47-50% reduction in emissions intensity below 2005 levels and a non-fossil capacity target of 60-67%. If it adopted a non-fossil target of 67%, the CAT rating of its conditional target would improve one category to "Highly insufficient". Much deeper emissions cuts are needed by 2030 to put India on a 1.5°C pathway, for which it will require climate finance to achieve.

500 GW target
At COP26, Prime Minister Modi also announced a 500 GW non-fossil capacity target. This target has not been included in the NDC update. At most, it could drive minor reductions in real world emissions. The lower end of our current policy projection includes more than 500 GW of non-fossil capacity, while the top end comes close. Adjusting the top end to achieve the 500 GW target would result in a small reduction in emissions on the order of 50 MtCO₂e.

Lifestyle changes
India has long stressed the important of lifestyle changes in order to achieve climate friendly development. In its first NDC, it committed to propagating ‘a healthy and sustainable way of living based on traditions and values of conservation and moderation’. It has expanded this commitment in its updated NDC to include "a mass movement for ‘LIFE’– ‘Lifestyle for Environment’’, but did not provide any details on the nature of this mass movement.

Net zero target
India's updated NDC mentions the net zero by 2070 target announced by Prime Minister Modi at COP26, but does not provide any further details on that target.

* In our COP26 assessment, we said that this target improved India’s rating by one category but was essentially siting on the border. Our latest estimate is higher, largely due to higher historic emissions. We have also updated our methodology and pathways, included for deriving modelled domestic pathways, which has resulted in changes in the pathways for some countries. Our new estimate now falls within the "Critically insufficient" category.

Analysis of earlier NDC developments:

• 01.11.2021: India announced revised NDC target in COP26

Indian Prime Minister Modi announced a 2070 net zero target at the World Leaders Summit at COP26 in Glasgow. Reference to the target was also made in India’s updated NDC submission; however, few details about the target are available.

See the net zero tab here for further information.

Under the Copenhagen Accord, India pledged to reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP by 20–25% in 2020 below 2005 levels. This target does not cover emissions from the agricultural sector. The quantification of this pledge covers a range of emissions between 2.9–3.0 GtCO₂e in 2020 (excluding LULUCF). Based on our estimate of historic emissions in 2020, India has slightly missed achieving the lower end of its 2020 target, reducing its emissions intensity (excl. agricultural emissions) by 18%. Our latest historic emissions estimate is higher than what we had previously estimated, hence why India has now missed the target.