India

We take India’s emissions intensity target as its unconditional contribution to limiting warming to 1.5°C and rate that against what a fair contribution would be.

India has indicated that achieving the 50% non-fossil capacity target will require international support. We take this target as being conditional on international support and rate it against the level of reductions needed within India’s borders.

The CAT methodology for rating NDCs is based on GHG emissions from fossil fuels, agriculture and industrial processes. We exclude the land sector from our calculations and thus do not evaluate the contribution of India’s carbon sink expansion efforts.

We estimate that India’s 50% non-fossil capacity target would result in an emissions level of between 4.2–4.5 GtCO₂e (excluding LULUCF) in 2030.

India is already on track to achieve more than 60% non-fossil capacity by 2030 under current policies, so achieving only the 50% in the NDC would actually result in higher emissions.

We rate this target as “Highly insufficient” when compared to the level of reductions needed within India to be 1.5°C compatible. The “Highly insufficient” rating indicates that India’s conditional target leads to rising, rather than falling, emissions and is not at all consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow India’s approach, warming could reach over 3°C and up to 4°C.

Our estimate for the 50% non-fossil capacity target is slightly lower than our last update due to changes in the underlying power sector scenario. The lower bound of the updated power sector scenario is based on the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2023 Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), where total generation has marginally declined since the last update, indicating lower demand. Simultaneously, power generation from fossil sources has decreased, while non-fossil generation has increased, resulting in slightly lower emissions in 2030 compared to our last update.

The upper bound of the updated power sector scenario is based on the adopted National Electricity Plan 2023 (NEP2023), where total generation has not changed significantly, but generation from fossil fuels has increased, with a marginal decrease in non-fossil generation. However, NEP2023 has a lower emissions factor, resulting in lower emissions compared to our last update (please refer to the assumptions section for the methodology used in estimating targets).

The rating has improved due to an update in our modelled domestic pathways to the IPCC AR6 dataset and not due to any changes in the target itself. The previous rating showed India's emissions under a modelled domestic pathway would be in the "Critically Insufficient" range, i.e. equivalent to warming above 4˚C. But the AR6 dataset shows India's required emissions reduction rate to be slower, thus bringing it into the 3-4˚C "Highly Insufficient" range.

The rating change notwithstanding, substantial improvement is needed in this target and India will need international support to get onto a 1.5°C pathway. Even if India is not responsible for paying for all its emission reductions, it should develop plans to rapidly cut emissions conditional on sufficient international support being available, and not lock itself into a high carbon future. This would mean starting to phase out coal use, adopting emission reduction plans across the economy, and clearly specifying what international support it requires to achieve a 1.5°C compatible target.

We estimate that India’s emissions intensity target would result in an emissions level of 4.6 GtCO₂e (excluding LULUCF) in 2030. This emissions level is above where we project India’s emissions to be in 2030 under current policies and action.

We rate the intensity target as “Insufficient”. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that India’s unconditional target needs substantial improvements to be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. India’s target is at the least stringent end of what would be a fair share of global effort, and is not consistent with the 1.5°C limit unless other countries make much deeper reductions and comparably greater effort. If all countries were to follow India’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

The quantification of this target varies depending on how GDP is measured and assumptions made about 2030 projections. The transparency of India’s target could be improved with further information on these elements.

Also, while an emissions intensity target may contribute to decoupling emissions from economic growth, this type of target may not be sufficient to address the urgency of climate change, if overall emissions continue to rise.

Further information on how the CAT rates countries (against modelled domestic pathways and fair share) can be found here.

India’s original NDC had three main mitigation elements: an emissions intensity target, a non-fossil fuel based electric power capacity target and the enhancement of carbon sinks. India strengthened the intensity and non-fossil capacity targets as part of its 2022 NDC update, going from 33-35% to 45% for the intensity target and from 40% to 50% for the non-fossil capacity target. The carbon sink target was unchanged.

While the targets are stronger on paper, India will over-achieve them with its current level of climate action and thus the targets will not drive further emissions reductions. The rating of India’s NDC against its fair contribution did improve by one category to “Insufficient” with the update, but its overall CAT rating remained unchanged at “Highly insufficient”.

In essence, India replaced its unambitious first mitigation targets with targets close to its current level of climate action. Our estimate for its 2030 emissions based on current policies is consistent with a 49-53% reduction in emissions intensity below 2005 levels and a non-fossil capacity target of more than 60%. Much deeper emissions cuts are needed by 2030 to put India on a 1.5°C pathway, for which it will require climate finance to achieve.

500 GW target

At COP26, Prime Minister Modi also announced a 500 GW non-fossil capacity target. This target was not included in the official NDC update, but is still referred to in national documents (Ministry of Power, 2022c). Both of our current policy projections include more than 500 GW of non-fossil capacity in 2030, thus this target will not drive any additional real-world action.

Lifestyle changes

India has long stressed the important of lifestyle changes in order to achieve climate friendly development. In its first NDC, it committed to propagating ‘a healthy and sustainable way of living based on traditions and values of conservation and moderation’. It has expanded this commitment in its updated NDC to include ‘a mass movement for ‘LIFE’– ‘Lifestyle for Environment’’. In October 2022, it launched "Mission LiFE" to promote sustainable and healthy lifestyle and seeks to mobilise at least a billion people by 2028 (NITI Aayog, 2022). Due to the diverse and varied nature of individual measures, we have not quantified this aspect of the NDC.

Analysis of earlier NDC developments:

• 01.11.2021: India announced revised NDC target in COP26

Under the Copenhagen Accord, India pledged to reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP by 20–25% in 2020 below 2005 levels. This target does not cover emissions from the agricultural sector.

This target equates to emissions 3.1–3.2 GtCO₂e in 2020. This figure includes agriculture emissions (so that it is comparable to other CAT analysis) and excludes LULUCF.

India has achieved the lower end of its 2020 target, reducing its emissions intensity (excl. agricultural emissions) by 23.6% in 2020.

We are using a more recent historical dataset, which includes higher 2020 emissions than our last update (July 2023), and as a result we estimate that India has missed the more ambitious end of its target range (our GDP estimate for 2020 is unchanged (IMF, 2023b)).

India provided no information on the GDP data it intended to use when communicating its Copenhagen pledge, however its INDC submission includes GDP which is comparable to IMF data, thus we consider it to be the more likely source the government would use to assess compliance and thus have adopted it here. In past CAT assessments, we had assessed India’s progress towards its 2020 target using GDP data from the World Bank, which led to different conclusions on compliance.