Japan

In February 2023, the Japanese government adopted the Green Transformation (GX) Basic Policy, an initiative that lays out Japan's new decarbonisation strategy. However, this new policy places more emphasis on economic growth and energy security, rather than prioritising ambitious decarbonisation efforts.

The GX Basic Policy does not provide concrete emissions reduction targets; instead, it promotes the development of so-called “clean coal” technologies in the power sector, in Japan and in other countries, a move inconsistent with pathways required to limit global warming to below 1.5°C. In doing so, Prime Minister Kishida’s administration has missed an opportunity to place renewable energy at the core of Japan’s decarbonisation efforts. The government needs to commit at least to a coal phase-out if it does not want to be seen as a climate laggard. As a result, the CAT continues to rate Japan’s overall climate targets and action as “Insufficient”.

The GX Basic Policy suggests the government is still reluctant to take the measures necessary to decarbonise its economy and achieve net zero emissions by 2050. The new strategy provides no details on the expected emission reductions for 2030 and 2050. There are also concerns that the carbon pricing scheme envisioned by the government will not be effective in reducing Japan’s emissions. It remains unclear whether the emissions trading scheme planned for 2026 will still be based on voluntary participation, and the carbon levy, which will only be implemented in 2028, is expected to be set a low level - or around JPY1,500/t-CO₂ so around €10.

Through the GX Basic Policy, Japan continues to promote so called “clean coal” technologies, putting a strong emphasis on the need to develop Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technologies, and ammonia and hydrogen co-firing in the power sector. However, these technologies do not play a relevant role in energy sector decarbonisation, as renewable energy is much cheaper in comparison and has a much lower environmental footprint. They are nowhere near the scale and commercial viability needed to deliver on emissions reductions at scale, in large part due to technological and cost challenges.

The Japanese government also plans to promote these technologies in power sectors overseas through the Asia Zero Emissions Community (AZEC) initiative, a move that risks undermining decarbonisation efforts in ASEAN countries, at a moment where an increasing number of governments are setting their own net zero emission targets.

On top of that, at the 2023 G7 summit, the government reportedly refused to endorse the 2030 deadline for phasing out coal. Japan remains the only G7 country planning to build new coal-fired power plants, standing in stark contrast with its commitment to achieving “fully or predominantly” decarbonised electricity by 2035.

The Japanese government is pushing for continued investment in upstream fossil gas and LNG, claiming it can be a transitional fossil fuel. Japan is also advocating for further development of LNG infrastructure in other countries, to sustain the large flow of imports. However, such investment further contributes to locking-in carbon-intensive developments: fossil gas needs to be phased out, globally, to keep warming to 1.5˚C.

In policy documents, the Japanese government consistently uses terms such as “clean coal”, “green transformation”, “electrified vehicles” and unsubstantiated “clean hydrogen”. However, these terms are often misleading and strengthen a harmful narrative, often serving as a smokescreen to hide the government’s intention to keep relying on fossil fuels. Such language is a form of greenwashing and does not provide a comprehensive and truthful picture of Japan’s current decarbonisation efforts.

In a significant policy shift, Japan moved to re-start some of its currently idled nuclear reactors and plans to build new generation reactors, as part of the GX Basic Policy. Despite this reversal, many regulatory and political hurdles remain, and it is unlikely that nuclear power will help Japan meet its 2030 objectives.

Without additional measures, Japan’s current policies and actions will lead to emission levels of 31% to 37% below 2013 levels in 2030, excluding LULUCF. This falls short of Japan’s NDC target, let alone 60% below 2013 levels in 2030 which we estimate as 1.5 C-compatible. To improve its climate action, Japan could do the following:

• Commit to a full coal phase-out by 2030.
• Stop public financing of fossil fuel projects overseas and stop the international promotion of “clean coal” technologies.
• Give priority to the scale-up of renewable energy capacity and strengthen related targets in the upcoming Basic Energy Plan.
• Strengthen its EV target to phase out all fossil-fuel passenger (ICE) cars from new sales by 2035.

Despite the rollbacks in policies, there have been a few positive developments in Japan worth highlighting:

• The introduction of new emission reduction targets in several key sectors of the economy, including the steel and iron industry.
• The revision of the building standards by which all new houses and buildings will need to comply, with upgraded energy efficiency standards from 2025 (although its effects will only be felt in the long term).
• The adoption of the “Renewable Energy Installation Standards”, a regulation requiring construction companies to install rooftop solar panels on new buildings in Tokyo, from 2025.

The CAT rates Japan’s climate targets, policies and finance as “Insufficient”. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that Japan’s climate policies and commitments need substantial improvements to be consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit.

We rate Japan’s 2030 emissions reduction target as “Insufficient” as it is almost 1.5°C compatible when compared to modelled domestic emissions pathways. We rate Japan’s overall fair-share contribution (i.e. the NDC target and Japan’s climate finance abroad) as “Insufficient”. Japan’s contribution to mitigation abroad through climate finance alone is highly insufficient. Japan should both increase its emissions reduction targets and provide additional, predictable, finance to others and stop financing fossils abroad to meet its fair-share contribution. To achieve its target, Japan would need to enhance its current policies and actions.

The CAT rates Japan’s policies and action against modelled domestic pathways as “Insufficient”. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that Japan’s climate policies and action need substantial improvements to be consistent with the 1.5 °C temperature limit. If all countries were to follow Japan’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

We project that Japan’s implemented policies will lead to emission levels of 31% to 37% below 2013 levels in 2030, excluding LULUCF, falling short of its latest NDC target to achieve 46% (42% excluding LULUCF credits) below 2013 levels. Without additional measures, Japan will likely miss its NDC target, let alone more than 60% reduction below 2013 levels which we estimate as 1.5 °C-compatible.

The GX Basic Policy has failed to raise Japan’s climate ambitions. The new strategy provides no details on the expected emissions reduction for 2030 and 2050. There are also concerns that the carbon pricing scheme envisioned by the government will not be effective in reducing Japan’s emissions.

Japan is also the only G7 country planning to build new coal-fired power plant. The government’s focus on developing co-firing coal plants with ammonia and hydrogen and introducing the as-yet-unviable carbon capture and storage, are all distractions from the need for it to phase out coal-fired power by 2030 at the latest. It also remains to be seen whether the Japanese government will stop financing international fossil fuel projects, despite committing to end public financing for coal projects by the end of 2021 and for other fossil fuel projects by the end of 2022.

The full policies and action analysis can be found here.

The CAT rates the currently planned 2030 reduction target of 46% (42% excluding LULUCF) below 2013 levels as “Insufficient” when compared to modelled domestic emissions pathways. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that Japan’s NDC target against modelled domestic pathways needs substantial improvements to be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C.

If all countries were to follow Japan’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

Japan’s NDC rating against modelled domestic pathways has deteriorated compared to our previous assessment due to an update in our modelled domestic pathways to the pathways assessed in the IPPC AR6. Our newer pathways better capture national circumstances and for higher temperature levels show less room for emissions growth than the previous set.

The CAT’s assessment of Japan’s total fair share contribution considers its emissions reduction target and its climate finance.

The CAT rates Japan’s 2030 NDC target as “Insufficient” when compared with its fair-share emissions allocation. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that Japan’s NDC target in 2030 needs substantial improvement to be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C.

Some of these improvements should be made to the domestic emissions target itself, others could come in the form of additional financial support for emissions reduction in developing countries. Japan’s target is at the least stringent end of what would be a fair share of global effort and is not consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C unless other countries make much deeper reductions and comparably greater effort. If all countries were to follow Japan’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

The CAT rates Japan’s international public climate finance contributions as “Highly insufficient”. Japan remains committed to climate finance in the period post-2020 but contributions to date have been very low compared to its fair share. To improve its rating Japan needs to stop funding fossil fuel overseas and accelerate commitments to increase climate finance.

Japan’s climate finance is not sufficient to improve the NDC target against fair share rating, and the CAT rates Japan’s overall fair share contribution as “Insufficient”.

The CAT evaluates Japan’s net zero target as “poor” because Japan does not provide sufficient details on key elements that ensure effectiveness and transparency of net zero targets.

See Net-Zero Target for more details.