Fair Share
Fair Share
We rate New Zealand’s NDC emissions targets as “Insufficient.” The “Insufficient” rating indicates that New Zealand’s climate commitments are not consistent with holding warming to below 2°C, let alone limiting it to 1.5°C as required under the Paris Agreement, and are instead consistent with warming between 2°C and 3°C. If all countries were to follow New Zealand’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C. This means New Zealand’s climate commitments are at the least stringent end of what would be a fair share of global effort, and is not consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5˚C limit, unless other countries make much deeper reductions and comparably greater effort.
The CAT ratings are based on climate commitments in NDCs. If the CAT were to rate New Zealand’s projected emissions levels under current policies, we would rate New Zealand “Highly Insufficient,” indicating that New Zealand’s current policies are not consistent with holding warming to below 2°C, let alone limiting it to 1.5°C as required under the Paris Agreement, and are instead consistent with warming between 3°C and 4°C: if all countries were to follow New Zealand’s approach, warming could reach over 3°C and up to 4°C. This means New Zealand’s current policies are not in line with any interpretation of a “fair” approach to the former 2°C goal, let alone the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.
If the CAT were to rate New Zealand’s long-term target, we would rate it from “Insufficient” to “Highly Insufficient” to hold warming to below 2°C, let alone limiting it to 1.5°C as required under the Paris Agreement, and is instead consistent with warming over 2°C and up to 3°C.
Further information about the risks and impacts associated with the temperature levels of each of the categories is available here.
Further analysis
Latest publications
Stay informed
Subscribe to our newsletter