Targets
Target Overview
In its NDC submitted in 2021, South Korea has set an unconditional NDC target of reducing 40% GHG emissions below 2018 levels by 2030, a significant improvement on the previous NDC (24.4% below 2017 levels). Excluding the forestry contribution and reduction overseas, as described in an accompanying government document (Republic of Korea, 2021b), the target translates to a 37% reduction of domestic emissions by 2030 compared to 2018 levels, and the CAT rates this target as “Insufficient”, compared to required domestic efforts according to modelled domestic pathways.
The CAT rates the full target, including South Korea’s proposed procurement of carbon credits from other countries, as “Highly Insufficient” when compared to South Korea’s fair share. This assessment of South Korea’s target does not, at present, question the quality of the credits procured from abroad, and we were unable to identify sufficient information to examine this element of the NDC. As such our analysis may overestimate the mitigation impact of South Korea’s. South Korea has a net zero target set for 2050.
SOUTH KOREA - Main climate targets |
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2030 unconditional NDC target | |||
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Formulation of target in NDC | Reduction of 40% below 2018 by 2030 | ||
Absolute emissions level in 2030 excl. LULUCF |
Level of emissions to be achieved at home (domestic target component) 501 MtCO2e [55% above 1990] [30% below 2010] |
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Status | Submitted on 23 December 2021 |
Net zero & other long-term targets | |||
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Formulation of target in NDC | Carbon neutrality by 2050 | ||
Absolute emissions level in 2050 excl. LULUCF |
25 MtCO2e [68-92% below 1990] [96% below 2010] |
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Status | Announced on 07 December 2020 and enforced in law on March 2022 |
The absolute emissions target communicated by the government is 437 MtCO2e, using global warming potentials (GWPs) from the IPCC’s second assessment report (SAR). To ease comparison of country targets we convert to GWPs from the IPCC’s fourth assessment report (AR4) (see assumptions section). We estimate that the absolute emissions target in AR4 is 441 MtCO2e.
The CAT estimates the domestic component of the target as 501 MtCO2e (excl. reductions from LULUCF and international credits) and the full target including the international component as 468 MtCO2e (excl. reductions from LULUCF, incl. international credits), representing an 18% reduction compared to the NDC submitted in December 2020 (see assumptions section). The conversion of South Korea’s NDC to the common CAT metric is shown in the figure below.
NDC Updates
CAT rating of targets
Net zero and other long-term target(s)
2020 pledge
Further analysis
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