South Korea

In its updated 2030 NDC submitted in 2021, South Korea set an unconditional target of reducing emissions by 40% below 2018 levels by 2030, a significant improvement from its predecessor (24.4% below 2017 levels). The target translates to a 32% reduction of domestic emissions by 2030 below 2018 levels excluding the land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector’s contribution and reductions overseas, as described in an accompanying government document (Republic of Korea, 2021a). The CAT rates this target as “Almost sufficient” compared to modelled domestic pathways.

The CAT rates the full 2030 target, including South Korea’s proposed procurement of carbon credits from other countries, as “Insufficient” when compared to South Korea’s fair share. This assessment of South Korea’s target does not, at present, question the quality of the credits procured from abroad, and we were unable to identify sufficient information to examine this element of the NDC. As such, our analysis may overestimate the mitigation impact of South Korea’s target. South Korea has also set a net zero target for 2050.

South Korea announced its 2035 headline target at COP30 in Belem, targeting a reduction of 53–61% below 2018 levels (incl. LULUCF) (Republic of Korea, 2025a). South Korea submitted its 2035 NDC to the UNFCCC in December 2025. For more information, please see the 2035 NDC tab.

*South Korea’s 2035 NDC states its intent to use international carbon credits to achieve its target, but does not specify the extent, leaving the domestic contribution to the target unclear.

The absolute emissions target communicated by the government is 437 MtCO₂e, using global warming potentials (GWPs) from the IPCC’s Second Assessment Report (SAR). To easily compare country targets we convert to GWPs from the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) (see ‘Assumptions section’). We estimate that the absolute emissions target in AR5 is 443 MtCO₂e.

The CAT estimates the domestic component of South Korea’s 2030 target to be 504 MtCO₂e (excl. reductions from LULUCF and international credits) and the full target including the international component to be 470 MtCO₂e (excl. reductions from LULUCF, incl. international credits). The conversion of South Korea’s NDC to the common CAT metric is shown in the figure below.

2030 NDC targets

South Korea submitted a stronger updated 2030 NDC in December 2021, committing to a 40% reduction in emissions compared to 2018 levels, including emissions reductions from LULUCF and international credits.

Comparison 2030 NDC targets

* Before September 2021, all CAT ratings were based exclusively on fair share and only assessed a country’s target

Target development timeline & previous CAT analysis

• 23.12.2021 “CAT Climate Target Update Tracker South Korea”
• 18.10.2021 “CAT Climate Target Update Tracker South Korea”
• 30.12.2020 “CAT Climate Target Update Tracker South Korea”

South Korea has clearly stated the extent to which it will achieve its NDC target through domestic reductions, and the portion of emission reductions that it will achieve through the support of action abroad. We rate the domestic component of its NDC against modelled domestic pathways and the full NDC target (reductions achieved both domestically and abroad) against its fair share contribution.

South Korea’s overall rating, NDC target ratings and policies and action rating have all changed, mainly due to a methodological update of our modelled domestic pathways (MDPs^[1]), which now incorporate the latest global least-cost pathways from the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), and a literature update to our fair share (FS) ranges, which aligns our equity approaches with international environmental law (Rajamani et al., 2021) and therefore excludes studies based on cost-effectiveness; we also included additional studies to reflect the latest research available in the field. Therefore, the change of ratings do not represent (significant) improved climate action on the ground, compared to our previous assessment.

^[1] The changes to our modelled domestic pathways are particularly significant for South Korea. These result from updating our global least-cost pathways from the IPCC's Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels (SR1.5) to the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). SR1.5 consisted of only five regions (R5ASIA/LAM/REF/OECD/MAF, with South Korea grouped under R5ASIA). The AR6 expanded the regional resolution to provide 10 regions, and ASIA was split into CHINA, INDIA and REST_OF_ASIA (with South Korea grouped under REST_OF_ASIA). While grouped in R5ASIA, South Korea's emissions allowance was influenced by strong trends of rapidly falling emissions (specially from China). When the added regional resolution separates China and India from the rest of Asia, South Korea is grouped with developing countries where emissions could still slightly grow, therefore resulting in a higher emissions allowance than before.

We rate the domestic component of South Korea’s NDC target for 2030 as “Almost Sufficient” when compared against modelled domestic pathways.

The “Almost Sufficient” rating indicates that South Korea’s domestic commitment is not yet consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit but could be with moderate improvements to be consistent with modelled domestic pathways limiting warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow South Korea’s approach, warming could be held below—but not well below—2°C.

We rate South Korea’s full NDC target (including the domestic and the international element) as “Insufficient” when compared with its fair-share contribution to climate action. The rating indicates that South Korea’s NDC target in 2030 needs substantial improvements to be consistent with its fair share of the global mitigation effort to limit warming to 1.5°C. South Korea’s target is higher than what would be deemed a fair share of global effort consistent with the 1.5°C limit, unless other countries make much deeper reductions and comparably greater effort. If all countries were to follow South Korea’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

Given that South Korea’s fair share contribution requires reductions that go beyond the minimum level of emissions reductions for global least-cost mitigation (modelled domestic pathway), South Korea needs to improve both the domestic component of its NDC target and provide additional support for emissions reductions achieved in developing countries.

Further information on how the CAT rates countries (against modelled domestic pathways and fair share) can be found here.

We evaluate the net zero target as: Average.

After former President Moon Jae-in announced South Korea’s goal of becoming carbon neutral by 2050, the government included this commitment in its updated NDC and its Long-Term Strategy (Republic of Korea, 2020, 2021c). The carbon neutrality target was enshrined in law through the Carbon Neutrality Act, passed in August 2021 (Ministry of Climate, Energy and Environment, 2021) and enforced in March 2022 (Ministry of Climate, Energy and Environment, 2022) .

In October 2021, South Korea published two 2050 carbon neutrality scenarios, outlining potential pathways to reach net zero emissions (Republic of Korea, 2021b). Improving on the LTS, the 2050 pathways explicitly state that the net zero target does not include overseas reductions. However, South Korea is still not explicit in its coverage of GHGs, and the target review process lacks detail.

Both scenarios phase out coal before 2050, although the exact phase-out year remains unclear. One of the scenarios also phases out fossil gas. The other one allows for some fossil gas and, in turn, has a higher amount of CCUS to compensate for emissions. Both scenarios assume a sink of about 25 MtCO₂e from forestry in 2050.

The South Korean government faces criticism over its lack of comprehensive planning for achieving carbon neutrality. The Carbon Neutrality Act was deemed unconstitutional by the South Korean constitutional court in August 2024. The government is required to enact revised legislation by March 2026 and set yearly emission reduction targets for the 2031–2049 period.

The government has also faced criticism for its slow pace in advancing climate legislation. In August 2023, out of 291 proposed climate change-related bills, only 33 had been passed (Kyunghyang Shinmun, 2023) . Legislative momentum has recently increased following the establishment of the Ministry of Climate, Energy and Environment, which consolidates climate and energy policymaking under a single ministry. It is expected to support more coordinated decision-making and could help drive further legislative and policy action on climate (Kang, 2025).

CAT now evaluates the comprehensive of the net zero target as “Average”. The government has yet to make the emissions coverage explicit, a prerequisite for an overall evaluation of “Acceptable”.

For the full analysis click here.