South Korea

In its NDC submitted in 2021, South Korea has set an unconditional NDC target of reducing 40% GHG emissions below 2018 levels by 2030, a significant improvement on the previous NDC (24.4% below 2017 levels). Excluding the forestry contribution and reduction overseas, as described in an accompanying government document (Republic of Korea, 2021b), the target translates to a 37% reduction of domestic emissions by 2030 compared to 2018 levels, and the CAT rates this target as “Insufficient”, compared to required domestic efforts according to modelled domestic pathways.

The CAT rates the full target, including South Korea’s proposed procurement of carbon credits from other countries, as “Highly Insufficient” when compared to South Korea’s fair share. This assessment of South Korea’s target does not, at present, question the quality of the credits procured from abroad, and we were unable to identify sufficient information to examine this element of the NDC. As such our analysis may overestimate the mitigation impact of South Korea’s. South Korea has a net zero target set for 2050.

The absolute emissions target communicated by the government is 437 MtCO₂e, using global warming potentials (GWPs) from the IPCC’s second assessment report (SAR). To ease comparison of country targets we convert to GWPs from the IPCC’s fourth assessment report (AR4) (see assumptions section). We estimate that the absolute emissions target in AR4 is 441 MtCO₂e.

The CAT estimates the domestic component of the target as 501 MtCO₂e (excl. reductions from LULUCF and international credits) and the full target including the international component as 468 MtCO₂e (excl. reductions from LULUCF, incl. international credits), representing an 18% reduction compared to the NDC submitted in December 2020 (see assumptions section). The conversion of South Korea’s NDC to the common CAT metric is shown in the figure below.

South Korea submitted a stronger NDC in December 2021 – a 40% reduction in emissions compared to 2018 levels, including emissions reductions from LULUCF and international credits (Republic of Korea, 2021a).

Comparison table

* Before September 2021, all CAT ratings were based exclusively on fair share and only assessed a country’s target

Target development timeline & previous CAT analysis

• 23.12.2021 “CAT Climate Target Update Tracker South Korea”
• 18.10.2021 “CAT Climate Target Update Tracker South Korea”
• 30.12.2020 “CAT Climate Target Update Tracker South Korea”

South Korea has clearly stated the extent to which its NDC target will be achieved through domestic reductions and the portion of emission reductions that will be achieved through the support of action abroad. We rate the domestic component of its NDC against what needs to happen within its border based on modelled domestic pathways and the full NDC target (reduction achieved both domestically and abroad) against what a fair contribution would be.

We rate South Korea’s domestic target for 2030 as “Insufficient” when compared modelled domestic pathways. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that South Korea’s domestic target in 2030 needs substantial improvements to be consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit. If all countries were to follow South Korea’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

We rate South Korea’s overall NDC target (including the domestic and the international element) as “Highly insufficient” when compared with its fair-share contribution to climate action. The “Highly insufficient” rating indicates that South Korea’s fair share target in 2030 leads to rising, rather than falling, emissions and is not in line with any interpretation of a fair approach to meeting the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. If all countries were to follow South Korea’s approach, warming could reach over 3°C and up to 4°C.

We evaluate the net zero target as: Average.

After former President Moon Jae-in announced South Korea’s goal of becoming carbon neutral by 2050, the government also included this commitment in its updated NDC and its Long-Term Strategy (Republic of Korea, 2020, 2021a). The carbon neutrality target is enshrined in law through the Carbon Neutrality Act, which was passed in August 2021 (Ministry of Environment, 2021) and enforced in March 2022 (Ministry of Environment, 2022b). In October 2021, South Korea published two carbon neutrality scenarios that are leading to net zero emissions in 2050 (Republic of Korea, 2021c). Both scenarios aim for coal phase out before 2050 but remain unclear about the exact phase out year. One of the scenarios maintains a share of natural gas, while the other one phases out gas by 2050 as well. South Korea is still not explicit in its coverage of GHGs, and the target review process lacks detail.

For the full analysis click here.

Under the Copenhagen Accord, South Korea agreed to reduce its emissions by 30% below business-as-usual (BAU) emissions by 2020. It proposed this unconditional target in November 2009 and submitted it to the Copenhagen Accord on 25 January 2010. Under the BAU projections from the Third National Communication, the 2020 pledge would have resulted in emissions of 551 MtCO₂e/year excluding LULUCF (equivalent to 83% above 1990 emission levels). Emissions in 2020 exceeded this target by around 21% at 670 MtCO₂e excluding LULUCF.