South Korea

A change of government in South Korea has seen a shift in climate policies away from the government’s previous target of 100% renewables, which new President Yoon Suk-yeol has stated are “too expensive”. Instead, he has revitalised the nuclear power program, reversing his predecessor’s announced phase-out of nuclear power.

South Korea’s climate change mitigation and energy sector planning still lacks the necessary speed and stringency it needs to get onto a pathway compatible with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit.

The January 2023 10^th Basic Electricity Plan passed in January 2023 proposes revising the targets for the country's electricity mix by 2030 and 2036, aiming for more nuclear than previous targets, at the cost of renewable energy, while its targeted share of coal and LNG are similar. While this change has a limited effect on 2030 emission levels, the deprioritisation of renewable energy hampers a transition towards a 1.5°C pathway. To be Paris Agreement-compatible, coal needs to be phased-out by 2030 at the latest, and gas phased out from the power sector shortly after.

In 2021, the share of coal-fired power generation further decreased to 35%, from above 40% over the last decade and from 36% in 2020. The use of renewable energy only increased slightly; more notable is an increase in fossil gas-based electricity production, at 31% of electricity. Nuclear electricity generation decreased slightly in the same year.

South Korea’s December 2021 NDC sets an emissions reduction target of 40% below 2018 levels by 2030, a significant improvement on the previous NDC of 24.4% below 2017 levels, but does not improve the overall CAT rating of “Highly insufficient”. Deducting the suggested contribution of forestry and reductions overseas, the target translates into a 32% reduction of domestic emissions by 2030, compared to 2018. To meet the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit, the CAT estimates that a domestic emissions reduction of at least 59% by 2030 is needed.

After taking office on May 2022, South Korea’s new government is continuing its efforts to advance the implementation of its carbon neutrality target, evaluated as “average” by the CAT. The Framework Act on Carbon Neutrality and Green Growth enshrines carbon-neutrality by 2050 into law. Following the Framework Act, in October 2021 South Korea released sectoral roadmaps with possible policy measures. If those roadmaps were implemented, they would also lead to emissions reductions before 2030 and decrease the CAT projections under policies and action.

The CAT rates South Korea’s climate targets and policies as “Highly insufficient”. The “Highly insufficient” rating indicates that South Korea’s climate policies and commitments are not consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit.

The domestic component of South Korea’s 2030 target is rated “Insufficient” when compared to modelled domestic pathways. If all countries pursued this level of ambition, it would lead to up to 3°C of warming. To achieve its target, South Korea would need to enhance its policies and action, which are rated “Highly insufficient” and are currently only compatible with up to 4°C of warming compared to modelled domestic pathways.

We rate South Korea’s NDC target including the emissions reductions abroad as “Highly insufficient” when compared with its fair-share contribution to climate action. South Korea should also significantly increase the domestic component of its emissions reduction target, to get on a 1.5°C Paris Agreement compatible pathway.

We rate South Korea’s policies and action as “Highly insufficient”. The “Highly insufficient” rating indicates that South Korea’s policies and action in 2030 are not at all consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit. If all countries were to follow South Korea’s approach, warming could reach over 3°C and up to 4°C.

In March 2023, the Presidential Commission on Carbon Neutrality and Green Growth released its first basic plan. 2030’s sectoral emission reduction target of the NDC was changed but the overall reduction target remains the same. The plan marks growing reliance on overseas reduction (from 33.5 Mt to 37.5 Mt), various hydrogen (from 7.6 to 8.4 Mt) and CCUS (10.3 to 11.2 Mt). The industrial sector reduction target was reduced to 11%, which previously set at 14.5% in 2021 (37.9 Mt to 29.8 Mt) (MOE, 2023).

In January 2023, the government passed its Tenth Electricity Plan, which aims to increase the renewable electricity share to 21.6% by 2030, up from around 6% in 2020 (IEA, 2021c), while nuclear power would rise to 32.8%, and coal would drop to 21.2% (MOTIE, 2022b). South Korea’s current share of renewables in its power mix is the lowest in the OECD (Schneider et al., 2022a).

Compared to previous plans, the Tenth Electricity Plan aims for a slower growth of renewable energy, and instead priorities nuclear energy. The government plans to extend the lifetime of ten nuclear power plants by 2030 (MOLIT, 2022). Although nuclear electricity generation does not emit CO₂, the CAT doesn’t see nuclear as the solution to the climate crisis due to its risks such as nuclear accidents and proliferation, high and increasing costs (compared to alternatives such as renewables), long construction times, incompatibility with a flexible supply of electricity from wind and solar, and its vulnerability to heat waves.

The Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) is the main policy instrument for promoting renewable energy in South Korea. The RPS scheme mandates major electricity utilities to increase renewable and “new energy” share of the electricity mix to 10% by 2030 (Korea New and Renewable Energy Center, 2019). However, the new tenth electricity plan will include lowering the RPS ratio to 13% in 2023 (previously set at 14.5%) and to gradually increase it to 15% and 25% in 2026 and 2030 respectively (Renewables Now, 2023).

The revised Renewable Energy Act, passed in March 2021, raised the share of renewables at 25% by 2034. This law will support South Korea in achieving its renewable energy targets, however this is still insufficient to put the country on a 1.5°C compatible pathway (Renewables Now, 2023).

The new government has announced its intention to shut down 20 coal power plants by 2030 through the carbon neutral green growth vision and promotion strategy, but also plans to convert 26 coal-fired power plants (13.7 GW) to run on gas (LNG). Furthermore, additional five LNG power plants will be running, to secure 4.3 GW.

In 2021, MOTIE stated that hydrogen and ammonia will play an integral role in achieving South Korea’s 2050 carbon neutrality target. The government sets 13.8-21.5% country’s electricity generation to be sourced from hydrogen and ammonia-fueled turbines by 2050, replacing power generation from coal and LNG. The government estimated to finalise 50% of 150 MW class hydrogen co-firing test by 2028 while demonstration of 20% ammonia co-firing will be completed by 2027.

In April 2021 at the U.S. Leaders’ Summit on Climate, South Korea announced it will immediately stop financing coal projects abroad (Wang et al., 2021). However, just one month later, it announced exceptions for retrofitting, CCS, and approved projects. Despite this backpedaling, major Korean financial groups like KB, Shinhan, Hana, and Woori, have all announced plans to make their investment portfolios carbon neutral by 2050. According to SFOC’s (Solution for Our Climate, 2022) analysis, 70 out of the top 100 South Korean financial institutions have announced they will phase out coal, yet just only a fraction of them have set up actual policies; showing there is still much work to be done around such investment decisions.

South Korea joined the Global Methane Pledge, aiming to reduce methane emissions by 30% below 2018 levels (Climate & Clean Air Coalition, 2022). Joining the Global Methane Pledge, South Korea announced a methane reduction plan that included a national target to reduce emissions from 28 MtCO₂e 2018 to 19.7 MtCO₂e in 2030, a 30% reduction (IEA, 2022). If implemented, this would be a reduction of about 10 MtCO₂e in 2030 below the CAT projections for policies and action.

In 2020, South Korea had announced to increase the coverage of the Korea Energy Trading System (K-ETS) from 68% of national GHG emissions to 73.5%. As a result, almost 80% of CO₂ emissions from energy use in 2021 were covered.

The full policies and action analysis can be found here.

We rate the domestic component of South Korea’s NDC target for 2030 as “Insufficient” when compared modelled domestic pathways. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that South Korea’s domestic target in 2030 needs substantial improvements to be consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit. If all countries were to follow South Korea’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

We rate South Korea’s overall NDC target (including the domestic and the international element) as “Highly insufficient” when compared with its fair-share contribution to climate action. The “Highly insufficient” rating indicates that South Korea’s fair share target in 2030 leads to rising, rather than falling, emissions and is not in line with any interpretation of a fair approach to meeting the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. If all countries were to follow South Korea’s approach, warming could reach over 3°C and up to 4°C.

The CAT rates the full target, including South Korea’s proposed procurement of carbon credits from other countries, as “Highly Insufficient” when compared to South Korea’s fair share. This assessment of South Korea’s target does not, at present, question the quality of the credits procured from abroad, and we were unable to identify sufficient information to examine this element of its NDC. As such our analysis may overestimate the mitigation impact of South Korea’s target.

We evaluate the net zero target as “Average”. The target is enshrined in law through the Framework Act on Carbon Neutrality and Green Growth, which was passed in August 2021 and enforced in March 2022.

Over the course of 2022, the government has further advanced the enforcement of the legal framework around the target and has taken steps towards more detailed sectoral planning in the form of the Carbon Neutral Green Growth Vision and Implementation Strategy. The strategy includes launching of the 2050 Carbon Neutral Green Growth Committee and the carbon-neutral green growth promotion strategies; (responsible carbon neutrality, innovation, cooperation and adaptation), and technology innovation strategies; (R&D investment system, carbon neutral technological by private sector, institutional support) which aim to achieve the 2030 NDC and the 2050 carbon neutrality target. The net zero target does not include overseas reductions. However, it lacks clarity on emissions coverage and detail in the government’s review process.