Türkiye

We evaluate the target as: Poor

In 2021, Türkiye announced a 2053 net zero target (Presidency of the Republic of Türkiye, 2021).

Türkiye has two long term climate strategies; one is a roadmap prepared by its Climate Council in 2022, and another is a draft climate law that is yet to be passed by parliament. Our analysis of Türkiye’s net zero target is based on its 2022 roadmap, and not the draft climate law. The draft climate law has not yet been passed by parliament, and we only consider actual legislation. Türkiye was expected to submit a long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategy (LTS) by the end of 2022, but as of October 2024 had still not done so (Daily Sabah, 2022a). The Deputy Minister of Environment, Urbanisation and Climate Change announced that this will be released at COP29 (Türkiye Today, 2024b).

The Climate Council’s roadmap was developed by nearly 1,000 government officials, academics, business members, and NGOs with the aim of achieving net zero emissions and setting other green development targets (Hürriyet Daily News, 2022a). The roadmap was released in June 2022 and contains 217 recommendations covering energy, transportation, industry, agriculture, LULUCF, waste, and building sectors (Köksal & Kaya, 2022; Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Environment Urbanisation and Climate Change, 2022).

Some of the key recommendations include the creation of the National Green Finance Strategy, “Ulusal Yeşil Finans Stratejisi”, the development of national green taxonomy legislation, and the implementation calendar of the Emissions Trading System (Gundogmus, 2022). While the roadmap stresses the need to increase renewable energy sources, it does not include a phase-out of coal power. It also states that fossil gas exploration and production should be increased (Alp, 2022; Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Environment Urbanisation and Climate Change, 2022).

Türkiye’s draft version of its climate law, "İklim Kanunu” is also intended to help meet the 2053 net zero emissions reduction target (Hürriyet Daily News, 2022b; Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Environment Urbanisation and Climate Change, 2024b). As it is currently written, the draft law contains no interim emissions reduction targets between now and 2053 (Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Environment Urbanisation and Climate Change, 2024b). This is all the more critical to the credibility of the 2053 target given that Türkiye’s emissions are expected to rise in the medium term (Government of the Republic of Türkiye, 2023).

There is much in the draft climate law that could be improved. In particular, the climate law could clearly state that the 2053 net zero target covers all GHG emissions in all sectors, includes both international aviation and shipping, and that net zero will be reached through domestic actions alone and not through the use of international offset credits.

The government could also provide pathways for reaching net zero (see Şahin et al., 2021 for a net zero pathway generated by a Turkish research institute). Aside from a detailed section on implementing an Emissions Trading System, the draft climate law is vague on details, leading to criticism that it is designed to protect trade with the EU rather than a meaningful attempt to reduce emissions (Iklim Haber, 2024).

Scope

• Target year – Türkiye aims to reach net zero by 2053.
• Emissions coverage – The roadmap produced by Türkiye’s Climate Council mentions methane and carbon dioxide but it is not clear whether all GHG emissions are covered. All sectors of the economy excluding international aviation and shipping are covered by the roadmap but it does not provide quantified targets (Presidency of the Republic of Türkiye, 2021; Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Environment Urbanisation and Climate Change, 2022).
• International aviation and shipping – Although the draft climate law indicates that efforts will be made to decarbonise international aviation and shipping, it remains vague and lacks specific targets.
• Reductions or removals outside of own borders – According to the draft climate law, Türkiye plans “on importing and exporting credits at international level” to meet its net zero target. Türkiye intends to include the legislation on offsetting within the scope of its yet-to-be-established Emissions Trading System (Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Environment Urbanisation and Climate Change, 2022), and has established a national carbon crediting programme to meet the net zero target (İklim Değişikliği Başkanliği [Climate Change Directorate], 2023).

Target architecture

• Legal status – Türkiye included its net zero target of 2053 in its latest climate policy roadmap developed by the country’s Climate Council in February 2022 (Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Environment Urbanisation and Climate Change, 2022). Türkiye’s draft climate law is being formulated with the aim of reaching net zero emissions by 2053 (Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Environment Urbanisation and Climate Change, 2024b). As it is still in draft form, it is not yet official policy. Türkiye has yet to submit its LTS to the UNFCCC, though this is expected to be submitted at COP29 (Türkiye Today, 2024b).
• Separate reduction & removal targets – Türkiye provides no information on its intention to communicate separate emission reduction and removal targets.
• Review process – Türkiye provides no information on its intention to establish a review cycle for its net zero and intermediate targets. As it is currently written, the draft law contains no interim emission reduction targets between now and 2053 (Republic of Turkey Ministry of Environment Urbanisation and Climate Change, 2024c).

Transparency

• Carbon dioxide removal – Türkiye does not provide transparent assumptions on carbon dioxide removals.
• Comprehensive planning – Türkiye has released a roadmap and is currently drafting its climate law, both of which are intended to achieve its net zero target. Although the roadmap includes 217 policy measures and actions, many lack detail. Likewise, much of the draft climate law is vague. Neither document quantifies potential emissions reductions in the medium or long-term nor includes emissions pathways compatible with achieving net zero (Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Environment Urbanisation and Climate Change, 2022, 2024b). Türkiye is expected to submit an LTS at COP29 (Türkiye Today, 2024b).
• Clarity on fairness of target – Türkiye makes no reference to fairness or equity in the context of its net zero target representing an equitable share of the global mitigation burden. There are vague references to equity in the context of a just transition in its draft climate law, but there are no concrete justifications of the net zero target as part of the global effort to limit warming in line with the Paris Agreement’s goals.

The Climate Action Tracker has defined the following good practice for all ten key elements of net zero targets. Countries can refer to this good practice to design or enhance their net zero targets.