UAE

The April 2024 update extends our analysis to cover the UAE’s net zero target as set out in its new Long Term Strategy (LTS) submitted in January 2024 to the UNFCCC.

In the year of its COP presidency, the UAE was among the first governments to submit a new NDC to the UNFCCC, with a strengthened emissions reduction target, but it is set to miss its target by a large margin. However, there is still too little action in the real economy. The UAE is planning to increase fossil fuel production and consumption substantially by 2030, a move inconsistent with pathways required to limit warming to below 1.5°.

Just weeks before COP, the UAE’s national oil company, ADNOC, awarded contracts worth USD 17bn for the development of the Hail and Ghasha offshore gas fields, as part of a USD 150bn fossil fuel expansion plan. Emissions from the production and use of this gas by 2030 would be equivalent to 15-20% of the country’s present domestic emissions. On top of that, The UAE reportedly planned to use its COP presidency to push for new oil and gas deals with foreign governments.

As it stands, the country will not meet its NDC target. Emissions are projected to continue rising through to 2030, when, in order to be 1.5°C compatible, they would need to decrease by 38% below 2022 levels. The CAT rates the UAE’s overall climate action as “Critically Insufficient”, two grades lower compared to the previous assessment.

The UAE’s overall rating has been downgraded for two reasons. First, we have updated the UAE’s historical data, resulting in higher emissions (excluding LULUCF). With this update came new estimates of F-gas emissions in the UAE that are significantly higher, leading to higher historical industry emissions. Second, we have updated our modelled domestic pathways to reflect the latest science in line with the IPCC AR6 suite. Our newer pathways better capture national circumstances and show that the UAE needs to cut emissions faster to align with 1.5°C.

The UAE’s new NDC sets a target of reducing emissions to 206 MtCO₂e by 2030 (excluding land use, land use change and forestry), a 4% decrease below its previous target issued in 2022 and 18% below current emission levels. The CAT rates this target as “Almost sufficient” compared to a 1.5°C aligned domestic pathway and “Critically insufficient” when compared to the UAE’s fair share.

We estimate the UAE will miss its NDC emissions target by a large margin, and it therefore needs to put in place additional policies to reduce emissions. The CAT rates the UAE’s policies and action as “Critically Insufficient”. With less than seven years to go until 2030, the gap between the UAE’s current policies, its NDC target and a 1.5°C compatible trajectory remains worryingly large.

In July 2023, the UAE updated its 2050 Energy Strategy. The updated strategy includes a 30% “clean power” capacity target by 2030 and removed the previous 12% share of coal power from its 2050 target. The UAE has also announced an investment of USD 54bn in renewables over the next seven years to support its 2030 target. However, the strategy still foresees a large role for fossil gas in 2050, which is at odds with the UAE’s stated goal of reaching net zero emissions by then.

The UAE continues to promote the use of CSS in order to continue exploring fossil fuels. In October 2023, ADNOC doubled its CCS target from 5 to 10 MtCO₂e removed annually by 2030, which is only around 4% of its current emissions and less than 2% of its exported emissions. The technology is nowhere near the scale and commercial viability needed to deliver on emissions reductions at scale, in large part due to technological and cost challenges.

A recent investigation revealed that the UAE planned to use its COP presidency to push for oil and deals gas with foreign governments on behalf of ADNOC. This glaring conflict of interest raises concerns about the country’s willingness to engage in meaningful climate action on the global stage.

Emissions in the UAE appear to have decreased between 2015 and 2020, notably due to efficiency increases in the use of gas in the electricity sector and more recently due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, there are significant uncertainties in historical emissions. The UAE’s last official greenhouse gas emissions inventory is from 2014, and there are large discrepancies in historical emissions reported by other sources, particularly for energy-related CO₂ emissions.

Overall, there are some positive developments in the UAE, including:

• The pledge to contribute USD 100 million to the loss and damage start-up fund
• The submission of a stronger NDC target, now presented as an absolute emissions target instead of a reduction below a business-as-usual scenario.
• Some other improvements in its NDC, including information on the sectoral breakdown of emissions and especially the role LULUCF removals are expected to play towards its achievement.
• Continued investment into large scale renewables both at home and abroad.

To improve its climate action, the UAE could:

• Update its energy sector policies and rapidly diversify its economy away from fossil fuels both domestically and for exports, a necessary step to make the UAE’s 2050 net zero ambitions credible.
• Clarify how it plans to reach its 2050 net zero target as part of its upcoming Long-Term Strategy to be submitted before COP28, and what role it foresees for negative emissions technologies and carbon capture and storage.
• Improve the transparency of the information presented in its policies and data. This includes clarifying the baseline for its 2050 energy efficiency target, providing emissions projections under current policies (in addition to targets) and improved (and more recent) historical emissions data.

The CAT rates the UAE’s climate targets and policies as “Critically insufficient”. This rating indicates the UAE’s climate policies and commitments reflect minimal to no action and are not at all consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit.

The UAE’s overall rating has been downgraded compared to our previous assessment, for two reasons. First, we have updated the UAE historical data, resulting in higher emissions (excluding LULUCF). The latest estimates of F-gas emissions in the UAE are significantly higher, leading to higher historical industry emissions. Second, we updated our modelled domestic pathways to the pathways assessed in the IPCC AR6. Our newer pathways better capture national circumstances show that the UAE needs to cut emissions faster to align with 1.5°C.

The CAT rates the UAE’s policies and actions as “Critically insufficient” when compared with modelled domestic pathways. The “Critically insufficient” rating indicates that the UAE’s policies and action in 2030 reflect minimal to no action and are not at all consistent with the 1.5°C temperature limit. If all countries were to follow the UAE’s approach, warming would exceed 4°C.

We have downgraded the UAE’s policies and action rating from our previous assessment, for the same two reasons as those listed for the overall rating change.

Current policies are still set to lead to increasing rather than decreasing emissions in 2030, due to a continued expansion of fossil fuel production and use. The UAE is also developing both nuclear and solar power and is well on track to meet its 30% “clean” energy capacity target by 2030 and its 50% target for 2050, but these developments will not reverse the emissions increase.

The full policies and action analysis can be found here.

The CAT rates the UAE’s latest, 2023 NDC, target as “Almost sufficient” when compared with modelled domestic emissions pathways. The “Almost sufficient” rating indicates that the UAE’s 2030 NDC target is not yet consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C but could be, with moderate improvements. If all countries were to follow The UAE’s approach, warming could be held below—but not well below—2°C.

Our methods do not provide a clear answer as to whether the UAE should provide climate finance. On balance, the CAT methodology shows that the provision of some international support is consistent with the wide range of literature on fair share contributions to meeting the Paris Agreement's goals.

The CAT rates the UAE’s latest NDC target as “Critically insufficient” when compared with its fair share contribution to climate action. The “Critically insufficient” rating indicates that the UAE’s 2030 NDC target reflects minimal to no action and is not at all consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow the UAE’s approach, warming would exceed 4°C.

The UAE’s NDC rating has been downgraded compared to our previous assessment because we have updated the UAE’s historical data, resulting in higher emissions (excluding LULUCF) compared to the previous assessment.

The latest estimates of F-gas emissions in the UAE are significantly higher, leading to higher historical industry emissions. The CAT’s calculation of the UAE’s latest NDC target also includes PFCs, sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) and HFCs which are not covered by the target. For this calculation, the CAT assumes that F-Gases remain constant from the last available historical data point (2022). The latest historical data shows a significant revision of F-Gas emissions, which is why our estimation of the UAE’s NDC target is significantly above the stated target of 182 MtCO₂e. The UAE is currently preparing a study on these gases as part of its plan to ratify the Kigali Amendment and announced that it will include them in future NDC updates, so this rating may change in the future.

The CAT evaluates the UAE's net zero target as: Average.

In January 2024, the UAE submitted its LTS to the UNFCCC, confirming its target to reach net zero by 2050. The LTS includes several details on the UAE’s target, such as its planned emissions reductions and removals, and sectoral pathways to achieve net zero. However, the measures planned by the UAE to achieve its target remain problematic, especially due to the continued use of fossil gas for power generation, and the reliance on CCS to reduce a significant share of the country’s emissions.

The UAE first announced its intention to reach net zero by 2050 in October 2021 as part of the UAE Net Zero 2050 Strategic Initiative. At COP27, the UAE presented its “National Net Zero by 2050 pathway” with further details. In March 2023, the UAE’s member states signed the UAE Governments Net Zero 2050 Charter, further signalling commitment to reaching net zero.