UAE

Since our last update, the UAE has made significant progress both in terms of plans and in transparency, publishing an updated national emissions inventory and a comprehensive policy plan. This allowed for a more detailed assessment of the country's climate action, which has contributed to an improved rating. However, it also has become clear that the UAE is planning to rely heavily on carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies to achieve its 2050 net zero target, undermining the target's credibility. The UAE’s large renewables investment plans continue to be overshadowed by its fossil fuel expansion and investment plans. The CAT rates the UAE’s overall climate action as “Insufficient”.

This assessment is based on the 2030 target. Our analysis of the 2035 target can be found here.

There are two main changes in our current assessment: first, the UAE has now updated its national GHG inventory which leads to a 15% downwards revision in historical emissions estimates. This is mainly due to lower estimates for industrial process emissions and from energy emissions, especially a sharp decrease in fugitive emissions compared to third-party estimates used in previous assessments. Second, the UAE has published a comprehensive policy plan as part of its long-term strategy (LTS), including new current policy projections.

Our updated assessment includes these projections as part of the current policy range, which reflects climate action across all sectors of the economy. The lower bound of our projections now leads to a ~18% downwards revision compared to our last assessment. While there is still a 29-74 MtCO₂e gap between current policies and the 2030 NDC target, the UAE could be close to achieving it with the planned policies for achieving its net zero target – assuming that the revised emission estimates are accurate.

The UAE’s 2023 NDC sets a target of reducing emissions to 185 MtCO₂e by 2030 (excluding land use, land use change and forestry), a 12% decrease below its previous target issued in 2022 and 13–28% below current emission levels. The CAT rates this target as “Almost sufficient” compared to a 1.5°C aligned domestic pathway and “Insufficient” when compared to the UAE’s fair share.

Under current policies, the CAT estimates the UAE emissions will, in a best-case scenario, plateau close to 2022 levels until 2030 or continue to increase, meaning the country is set to miss its emission reduction target. To meet its NDC 2030 target, the government needs to implement more ambitious policies and reduce its 2030 emissions further.

In its LTS, the UAE has set out a detailed set of measures to reduce emissions in the power, industry, transport, buildings, agriculture and waste sectors including both currently implemented policies and additional policies planned to be implemented in the coming years.

The UAE plans to reduce its emissions to 3.5 MtCO₂e by 2050. In the industry sector, which includes oil and gas production, the UAE plans to reduce 32% of its emissions through CCS. This translates to roughly 43.5 MtCO₂e in 2050. In the power sector, it is expected that fossil gas will account for 50% of total installed capacity, but the UAE assumes emissions from the sector will be zero. This implies an extensive use of CCS in the power sector. This technology is nowhere near the scale and commercial viability needed to deliver on the needed emissions reductions, in large part due to both technological (such as CO₂ capture rates) and cost challenges. Because of this, high reliance on CCS undermines the credibility of the UAE’s medium and long-term emission reduction plans.

The UAE is planning to increase fossil fuel production and consumption substantially by 2030, a move inconsistent with pathways required to limit warming to below 1.5°C. At the end of 2023, the UAE’s national oil company, ADNOC, awarded contracts worth USD 17bn for the development of the Hail and Ghasha offshore gas fields, as part of a USD 150bn fossil fuel expansion plan. Emissions from the production and use of this fossil gas by 2030 would be equivalent to 15–20% of the country’s present annual domestic emissions.

In 2023, the UAE updated its 2050 Energy Strategy. The updated strategy includes a 30% “clean power” capacity target by 2030. The UAE has also announced an investment of USD 54bn in renewables over the next seven years to support its 2030 target. However, the strategy still foresees a large role for fossil gas in 2050, which puts in question the UAE’s stated goal of reaching net zero emissions by then due to their high reliance on CCS.

The UAE continues to promote the use of CSS in order to continue exploring fossil fuels. In October 2023, ADNOC doubled its CCS target from 5 to 10 MtCO₂e removed annually by 2030, which is only around 4% of its current emissions and less than 2% of its exported emissions.

There are some positive developments in the UAE, including:

• The submission of a new and improved national GHG inventory,
• The pledge to contribute USD 100 million to the UNFCCC Loss and Damage Fund,
• The submission of a stronger NDC target in November 2024, now presented as an absolute emissions target instead of a reduction below a business-as-usual scenario,
• The submission of clear sectoral mitigation plans in its LTS, including sectoral targets, current and planned measures, and current policy scenarios,
• Continued investment into large scale renewables both at home and abroad.

To improve its climate action, the UAE could:

• Update its power sector targets moving towards a 100% renewables power system and away from natural gas,
• Update its energy sector policies and rapidly diversify its economy away from fossil fuels both domestically and for exports, a necessary step to make the UAE’s 2050 net zero ambitions credible,
• Reduce its reliance on CCS as a mitigation measure and instead plan to transition away from fossil fuels in power generation and in heavy industry.

The CAT rates each country’s targets and policies against (1) its fair share contribution to climate change mitigation considering a range of equity principles including responsibility, capability and equality, and (2) what is technically and economically feasible using modelled domestic pathways which in absence of a better method are based on global least-cost climate change mitigation.

Comparing a country’s fair share ranges and modelled domestic pathways provides insights into which governments should provide climate finance and which should receive it. Developed countries with large responsibility for historical emissions and high per-capita emissions, must not only implement ambitious climate action domestically but must also support climate action in developing countries with lower historical responsibility, capability, and lower per-capita emissions.

The CAT rates the UAE’s climate targets and policies as “Insufficient”. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that the UAE’s climate policies and commitments need substantial improvements to be consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit.

We have improved the UAE’s overall rating compared to our previous assessment for three reasons.

First, the UAE’s newly published current policy scenarios (included in its LTS) lead to 17% lower emissions by 2030. This scenario includes a sectoral breakdown and detailed information at the measure level. This is a significant improvement compared to our previous current policy scenarios, which were based only on the implementation of the Energy Strategy 2050.

Second, the UAE’s 5^th National Communication to the UNFCCC also includes updated inventory data, which is 15% lower than our previous estimates, mainly due to differences in industrial process emissions and fugitive emissions. These also impact the absolute value estimated for the UAE’s 2030 emissions under current policies.

Third, the CAT conducted a literature update to its fair share (FS) ranges, which aligns our equity approaches with international environmental law (Rajamani et al., 2021) and therefore exclude studies based on cost-effectiveness; it also included additional studies to reflect the latest research available in the field. This update yielded more lenient FS ranges for the UAE, contributing to improve its rating.

The CAT rates the UAE’s policies and actions as “Insufficient” when compared with modelled domestic emissions pathways. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that the UAE’s climate policies and action in 2030 need substantial improvements to be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow the UAE’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

The UAE’s policies and action rating has improved compared to our previous assessment for two reasons.

First, the UAE’s newly published current policy scenarios (included in its LTS) lead to 17% lower emissions by 2030. This scenario includes a sectoral breakdown and detailed information at the measure level. This is a significant improvement compared to our previous current policy scenarios which were based only on the implementation of the Energy Strategy 2050.

Second, the UAE’s 5^th National Communication to the UNFCCC also includes updated inventory data, which is 15% lower than our previous estimates, mainly due to differences in industrial process emissions and fugitive emissions. These also impact the absolute value estimated for the UAE’s 2030 emissions under current policies.

The UAE’s LTS, published in 2024, includes targets and current policy projections for all major sectors of the economy, and detail both existing and planned measures to achieve them. While this is a significant step in transparency, it also shows that the UAE plans to rely heavily on carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies especially after 2030 and towards its 2050 target, which undermines the credibility of its climate policies and targets.

The full policies and action analysis can be found here.

The CAT rates the UAE’s 2030 NDC target as “Almost sufficient” when compared with modelled domestic emissions pathways. The “Almost sufficient” rating indicates that the UAE’s NDC target in 2030 is not yet consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C but could be, with moderate improvements. If all countries were to follow The UAE’s approach, warming could be held below—but not well below—2°C.

The CAT rates the UAE’s 2030 NDC target as “Insufficient” when compared with its fair share contribution to climate action. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that the UAE’s NDC target in 2030 needs substantial improvements to be consistent with its fair share of the global mitigation effort to limit warming to 1.5°C. The UAE’s target is at the least stringent end of what would be a fair share of global effort and is not consistent with the 1.5°C limit, unless other countries make much deeper reductions and comparably greater effort. If all countries were to follow the UAE’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

The UAE’s NDC rating has improved compared to our previous assessment for two reasons:

First, we have updated the UAE’s historical data, resulting in lower emissions (excluding LULUCF) compared to the previous assessment. Our new estimates come from the UAE’s latest inventory, published in its 5^th National Communication to the UNFCCC.

Second, the CAT conducted a literature update to its fair share (FS) ranges, which aligns our equity approaches with international environmental law (Rajamani et al., 2021) and therefore exclude studies based on cost-effectiveness; it also included additional studies to reflect the latest research available in the field. This update yielded more lenient FS ranges for the UAE, contributing to improve its rating.

The CAT evaluates the UAE's net zero target as: Average.

In January 2024, the UAE submitted its LTS to the UNFCCC, confirming its commitment to reach net zero by 2050. The LTS includes several details on the UAE’s target, such as its planned emissions reductions and removals, and sectoral pathways to achieve net zero. However, the measures planned by the UAE to achieve its target remain problematic, especially due to the continued use of fossil gas for power generation, and the reliance on CCS to reduce a significant share of the country’s emissions.

The UAE first announced its intention to reach net zero by 2050 in October 2021 as part of the UAE Net Zero 2050 Strategic Initiative. At COP27, the UAE presented its “National Net Zero by 2050 pathway” with further details. In March 2023, the UAE’s member states signed the UAE Governments Net Zero 2050 Charter, further signalling commitment to reaching net zero.