UAE

Historical emissions for the years 1994, 2000, 2005, 2014, and 2021 are taken from the UAE’s 5^th National Communication to the UNFCCC (Government of the UAE, 2024a). For the years between 1994 and 2021 emissions are estimated by interpolating values between reported values. For the period 1990-1994 and 2021-2022 we estimate values by using growth rates from PRIMAP-hist (Gütschow et al., 2024).

The UAE now includes an F-gases estimate in its latest national inventory data, submitted along with its 5^th National Communication to the UNFCCC (Government of the UAE, 2024a). However, there are still significant limitations regarding the UAE’s F-gases reporting, mainly related to data availability. To address this, the UAE plans to broaden its monitoring and reporting activities, including exchanges with relevant stakeholders. While F-gases currently represent a negligible share of the UAE’s total GHG emissions (only 0.15 MtCO₂e in 2021), this can change once the UAE updates its inventory again.

The historical data used in our previous assessment estimated emissions to be around 15% higher in 2022 compared to our current assessment. The data from PRIMAP-hist (Gütschow et al., 2024) was based on the UAE’s latest inventory published in 2016, and used different methods to fill the gaps in the inventory and extend the estimates until 2022. The new GHG inventory published by the UAE in 2024 presents a significant upgrade in terms of data quality. The difference in economy-wide emissions estimates is mostly explained by a decrease in industrial process emissions, which are roughly half in the UAE’s own inventory compared to PRIMAP in 2022, and to differences in fugitive emissions data for 2021. According to PRIMAP’s estimates, the emissions they calculated for the UAE in 2022 based on their old inventory are 98% higher than the ones calculated based on the UAE’s new inventory for 2022. The UAE’s old inventory published in 2015 (Ministry of Energy, 2015) includes estimates for 1994 and 2014, while the new inventory published in 2024 (Government of the UAE, 2024a) includes an estimate only for 2021.

The absolute emissions level for the NDC target incl. LULUCF is taken directly from the NDC document.

F-gases

Because F-gases are excluded from the UAE’s 2030 NDC target, the CAT adds them into the quantification of the NDC by assuming that F-gases remain constant from the last historical year (2021) until the target year (2030). The F-gases estimate comes from the UAE’s latest inventory data, submitted along with its 5^th National Communication to the UNFCCC (Government of the UAE, 2024a). However, there are still significant limitations regarding the UAE’s F-gases reporting, mainly due to data limitations. To address this, the UAE plans to broaden its monitoring and reporting activities, including exchanges with relevant stakeholders. While F-gases currently represent a negligible share of the UAE’s total GHG emissions (only 0.15 MtCO₂e in 2021), this can change once the UAE updates its inventory again.

LULUCF

The target in the UAE’s 2023 NDC includes LULUCF emissions. To estimate the emissions level resulting from the target excluding LULUCF, we take the value for its 2030 LULUCF target (included in the NDC) and subtract it from the main NDC target.

Global Warming Potential (GWP) values

The UAE’s 2023 NDC specifies that it currently uses AR4 both for the BAU scenario and the NDC and sectoral targets. For the 2020 NDC, which was presented in SAR, we converted the 2030 BAU value from SAR to AR4 using a conversion factor from the last available nationally reported historical data point (2021).

Lower bound

The UAE’s LTS includes current policy projections which are used as a baseline for the net zero scenario (Government of the UAE, 2024b). The current policy projections include all mitigation measures in force up to 2024 in all sectors of the economy, while the net zero scenario includes planned measures and their estimated contribution towards the target. The CAT uses the UAE’s LTS current policy scenario for the lower bound of its own current policy projections.

The CAT harmonizes the UAE’s LTS current policy scenarios to the latest available historical GHG emissions data (from 2022) using the growth rates of the original scenario for the period 2022-2035. The UAE only provided data for its current policies for the years 2019, 2030, 2040 and 2050. To create a pathway, the CAT linearly interpolates the values between these years.

Because the original projections include emissions and sinks from LULUCF, the CAT assumes that LULUCF emissions remain at 2019 levels (latest historical data available) under current policies. The UAE’s 2019 LULUCF emissions are -1 MtCO₂e.

Upper bound

For the upper bound of our current policy projections, we estimate the impacts of the 2050 Energy Strategy on emissions with a range to reflect for uncertainties around the efficiency target and total energy generation. We use IRENA’s Renewable Energy Prospects report as our basis for energy-related CO₂ emissions (Masdar Institute/IRENA, 2015) and calculate the difference in emissions that would result from the 2050 Energy Strategy.

The upper end of our range reflects the installed capacity targets for 2030 in the 2050 Energy Strategy, without calculating the impacts of energy efficiency measures. For this projection, we estimate total power generation by technology using capacity factors estimated based on the IRENA REMAP BAU scenario (Masdar Institute/IRENA, 2015).

In summary, the CPP upper end of the range for the UAE’s energy-related CO₂ emissions is based on assumptions both about which targets will be implemented, as well as the role of fossil gas in the development of the power system.

For CO₂ process emissions (from industry), we continue a linear trend based on total industrial process emissions from the years 2011–2022 until 2030 (Masdar Institute/IRENA, 2015). For non-CO₂ emissions, we apply the growth rate from the Global Anthropogenic Non-CO₂ Greenhouse Gas Emissions: 1990–2030 to PRIMAP historical data (US EPA, 2019).

We use the following data sources in our estimates:

• Energy-related CO₂ from fuel combustion: “Renewable Energy Prospects – United Arab Emirates” (Masdar Institute/IRENA, 2015)
• CO₂ process emissions (from industry): Own assumption to continue linear trend based on total industrial process emissions from the years 2011–2022 until 2030.
• Non-CO₂ emissions: Global Anthropogenic Non-CO₂ Greenhouse Gas Emissions: 1990–2030 (US EPA, 2019)
• Historical installed capacity data: IRENA capacity and generation statistics 2023 (IRENASTAT, 2023)
• Historical electricity generation data: IEA World Energy Balances 2022 (IEA, 2022)
• Historical emissions factors: IEA Emissions Factors 2021 (IEA, 2021a).

The UAE’s net zero strategy covers all GHG emissions except F-gases and assumes a 3.5 MtCO₂e sink in 2050 to assist with achieving the country’s net zero target and so that is the value taken for their net zero target excluding LULUCF.

Due to the uncertainty in estimating F-gases emissions in the UAE by 2050, the CAT does not include any estimation when calculating the UAE’s 2050 emissions excluding LULUCF. This can change in future updates once new emissions data for historical years and future projections are available.

The CAT uses Global Warming Potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) for all its figures and time series. Assessments completed prior to December 2018 (COP24) used GWP values from the Second Assessment Report (SAR).