United Kingdom

The first year of the new UK government’s tenure can be boiled down to one simple phrase – much done, much more to do. After inheriting a policy framework that the High Court declared insufficient to meet the government’s climate targets, there was a major need to address the implementation gap.

To that end, the first year has been marked by moderate success. Credible policies now cover 38% of required emissions reductions, up from 32% last year. That share rises to 61% when considering policies with some risks (such as delivery or funding risks) attached. The remaining 39% of UK emissions are not covered by adequate plans. While an improvement for the government’s first year, it is not enough to improve the UK’s policies and actions rating to 'Almost sufficient'. The UK needs to accelerate implementation to achieve its climate targets.

The government’s flagship Clean Power 2030 Action Plan will increase the share of low carbon technologies to over 95% of electricity generation by 2030 – a strong target that can spread economic gains and high-quality jobs across the UK. Efforts to unclog the grid connection queue to place high priority projects at the front of the queue is an important planning reform that will speed up the renewables’ rollout.

However, cuts to official development spending from 0.5% of gross national income to 0.3% diminishes some of the domestic gains. The cuts will impact the UK’s climate finance budget, reneging on its fair share contribution to mitigating climate change. Aside from spending cuts, the UK has changed its accounting methodology to dilute its climate finance targets. These accounting changes allow the UK to meet a pledge it was otherwise going to miss.

The UK’s 2035 NDC target of 81% below 1990 levels is aligned with global least-cost pathways, while its 2030 target is 2% short of 1.5°C compatibility. When these are taken into account along with its current policy projections and climate finance contributions, the UK’s overall CAT rating is ‘Insufficient’. Although recent policy updates have not yet been enough to improve the UK’s rating, sustained effort to close the implementation gap will eventually see this happen.

Given rollbacks in ambition from other developed countries, the 2035 target is to be commended. The UK’s NDC targets are based on global least-cost mitigation pathways and do not account for the UK’s fair share of mitigating climate change. These NDC targets should therefore be seen as a floor, not a ceiling, of ambition.

As a developed country, the UK’s fair share of climate action needs to go well beyond domestic emissions reductions. To achieve this, it needs to substantially increase its climate finance contribution. The previous government consistently underspent on climate finance and changed the definition of what constitutes climate finance in an attempt to meet the GBP 11.6 bn target. The new government intends to continue what the previous government started, not only staying with the revised accounting methodologies, but further cutting the climate finance budget. While domestic political pressures are undeniable, this is highly regrettable.

Recent years have seen a breakdown in the cross-party consensus on climate that dominated British politics and drove national achievements such as the coal phase-out. This breakdown has been driven by vested interests who wish to deliberately delay the transition. Weak lobbying laws have allowed the fossil fuel industry to influence policy and normalise industry talking points, serving to not only pollute the environment, but to pollute the public discourse too. Discourses of delay are now broadcast widely among certain elements of the media, turning the cross-party consensus into a culture war flashpoint.

Positive developments over the last year include:

• The UK’s 2035 NDC target is aligned with 1.5°C compatible global least-cost pathways, representing an ambitious and cost-effective effort to reduce domestic ambitions.
• The Clean Power 2030 Action Plan will roll out wind and solar while mostly phasing out fossil fuels from electricity generation, maintaining the fossil gas fleet to balance out renewables’ variability during periods of insufficient sun and wind. The plan will bring the UK in line with European leaders like Denmark and Portugal.
• The Warm Homes Plan earmarks GBP 13.2 bn for the buildings sector out to 2030, with much of this supporting decarbonisation. Funding will be directed towards rolling out heat pumps, retrofitting hundreds of thousands of homes, and developing homegrown British supply chains.
• Increased uptake of electric vehicles and their associated emissions reductions now brings road transport in line with the Climate Change Committee’s pathway to 2030, assuming a sustained S-curve increase in EV ownership.
• Linking the UK’s Emissions Trading Scheme with the EU ETS represents positive cooperation in the post-Brexit era and will support emission reductions in both the UK and EU economies.

To improve its climate targets and action rating, the UK could:

• Submitting a 2030 target fully aligned with 1.5°C compatible global least-cost pathways can represent an important symbolic move which asserts the UK as a climate leader on the international stage.
• Accelerate electrification of end-use sectors by removing policy costs from electricity bills, thereby making electricity cheaper and improving the economic rationale of switching to low carbon sources. For instance, funding the Renewables Obligation and Feed-in Tariffs schemes from gas bills would cut electricity costs significantly, while strengthening the Warm Home Discount for low-income, gas-reliant households can ensure households at risk of fuel poverty will also see net savings.
• Strengthen green public procurement for public sector projects. Given public procurement accounts for around one third of public sector spending, a coherent strategy can drive emission reductions and spur domestic innovation.
• Assert leadership by reversing cuts to official development spending. The UK’s fair share contribution is far from 1.5°C compatible, which requires mitigation ambition to triple, most of which would be achieved through international climate finance. To change this, the UK needs to ratchet up international support.
• To avoid overshooting its climate targets, the government will need to rein in aviation demand. There can be no net growth in air traffic over the next decade, despite government approvals of major new infrastructure projects. Expanding ETS coverage to international aviation, applying a fuel duty on jet fuel, or introducing a frequent flyer levy can ensure the costs of decarbonisation fall on those most able to pay, without unduly penalising people who travel occasionally.

NOTE: Our analysis was published before the release of the UK's Carbon Budget Delivery Plan. The CAT will integrate our analysis of the plan into our next assessment.

The CAT rates each country’s targets and policies against (1) its fair share contribution to climate change mitigation considering a range of equity principles including responsibility, capability and equality, and (2) what is technically and economically feasible using modelled domestic pathways which in absence of a better method are based on global least-cost climate change mitigation pathways.

Comparing a country’s fair share ranges and modelled domestic pathways provides insights into which governments should provide climate finance and which should receive it. Developed countries with large responsibility for historical emissions and high per-capita emissions, must not only implement ambitious climate action domestically but must also support climate action in developing countries with lower historical responsibility, capability, and lower per-capita emissions.

The CAT rates the UK’s climate targets, policies and finance 'Insufficient', a rating that indicates that the UK’s climate policies and commitments need substantial improvements to be consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit.

The UK’s 2030 emissions target is not fully aligned with 1.5°C when compared to global least-cost modelled domestic pathways, produced by downscaling integrated assessment model (IAM) pathways to the country level. The UK’s target is therefore rated as 'Almost sufficient'.

However, there is a significant gap – albeit a shrinking one – between targets and current policy trajectories in the UK. Just 38% of the emission reductions needed to meet the 2030 NDC are covered by credible policies, with 61% covered by policies with some risks attached (e.g. delivery or funding risks). The remaining 39% jeopardise the UK's efforts to achieve its NDC. The UK’s policies and actions are therefore still rated as ‘Insufficient’.

Modelled domestic pathways alone also do not represent a fair emissions reduction pathway for the UK. When considering an equitable allocation of emission reductions across countries, the UK’s targets are far below what would represent a fair contribution. The UK’s climate finance commitments, which could bridge the gap towards a fair distribution of global effort in cutting emissions, are 'Highly Insufficient' and need to be urgently increased.

Key measures required for the UK to improve its overall rating to ‘1.5°C Paris Agreement compatible’ include:

• Introducing and implementing additional policies, funding and delivery mechanisms to achieve its climate targets.
• Substantially increasing international climate finance contributions, to ensure the UK is contributing its fair share to global climate mitigation efforts.
• Updating its 2030 NDC to fully align with modelled domestic pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C.

We rate the UK’s current policies until 2030 as 'Insufficient', a rating that indicates the UK’s climate policies and action need substantial improvements to be consistent with the 1.5°C temperature limit. If all countries were to follow the UK’s approach, warming would reach up to 3°C.

Although the UK’s current policies remain aligned with 2–3C° of warming, there has been improvement over the last year. While that improvement is not yet enough to improve its rating against modelled domestic pathways, if efforts are sustained, the UK can improve its rating to be closer to Paris Agreement compatible pathways.

The UK’s headline emissions reduction policy is its Clean Power 2030 Action Plan. This will see a rapid scale up of renewables so that, by 2030, 95% of electricity generation will be met from low carbon sources. The government has strengthened the relevant policy frameworks to enable this rapid transition, including streamlining the permitting process and addressing bottlenecks which impede wind and solar projects from connecting to the grid.

The decarbonisation of electricity supply will have a knock-on effect for end-use sectors. A clean grid will mean that electricity supply for industry, buildings and transport will in turn be clean, supporting emissions reductions in these sectors too. Rolling out energy efficient technologies which use electricity rather than fossil fuels will maximise the benefits of Britain’s cleaner grid.

To that end, there has been mixed success. The Warm Homes Plan promises to roll out heat pumps, which will drive emissions reductions in the buildings sector. However, due to a mix of high electricity costs, poorly insulated homes, and policy inconsistency, the UK’s heat pump rollout remains well behind the European average, leaving plenty of room for improvement.

Similarly, EV uptake is rising, signalling a positive step towards reducing road transport’s large share of UK emissions. A slow build-out of charging stations outside of London, however, does not bode well for sustained EV uptake outside the capital. In particular, installation of ultra-rapid charging stations along motorways can reduce motorists’ range anxiety. To ensure uptake continues along an S-curve growth rate, it is critical that the UK provides easily accessible fast charging stations across the country.

Growing aviation demand risks blowing out the UK’s carbon budget, and by extension placing its targets out of reach. Net zero pathways indicate no increase in demand over the next decade. However, the government continues to approve airport expansions with little heed paid to aligning the sector with its own NDC targets, relying heavily on carbon credits to address the growing emissions.

The full analysis of the UK’s policies and action is here.

We rate the UK’s 2030 domestic emission reduction target of at least 68% below 1990 levels as being 'Almost Sufficient' to limit warming to 1.5°C, when compared to modelled domestic pathways. The 'Almost sufficient' rating indicates that the UK’s target in 2030 is not yet consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C but could be, with moderate improvements. If all countries were to follow the UK’s approach, warming could be held below – but not well below – 2°C.

We rate the UK’s 2030 domestic emissions reduction target of at least 68% (incl. LULUCF) below 1990 levels as 'Insufficient' when compared to its fair share emissions allocation. The 'Insufficient' rating indicates that the UK’s fair share target in 2030 needs substantial improvement to be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C.

These improvements need to come in the form of greater ambition in reducing UK emissions, as well as additional financial support for emissions reductions in developing countries. This is because the UK’s fair share contribution requires reductions that go beyond the minimum level of emissions reductions required inside the UK, based on global least-cost mitigation (modelled domestic pathway).

If all countries followed the UK’s current approach, warming would reach up to 3°C.

The UK’s international public climate finance contributions are rated 'Highly Insufficient'. The UK’s contributions to date have been far below its fair share, and the government’s cut to development spending from 0.5% of gross national income to 0.3% sets UK climate finance commitments in the opposite direction of where they need to go. This needs to be addressed urgently. To improve its rating, the UK needs to increase climate finance substantially.

The UK’s climate finance is not sufficient to improve its fair share rating, and the CAT rates the UK’s overall fair share contribution as 'Insufficient'.

In 2019, the UK enshrined its goal of net zero emissions by 2050 into law. In 2021, the UK submitted its Net Zero Strategy to the UNFCCC as a long-term strategy. The net zero target covers most elements, and most could be considered good practice, but some elements still remain undefined or lacking. In particular, a clear delineation of targets for emissions reductions and removals would improve the UK’s net zero rating. We evaluate the net zero target as: 'Acceptable'.

For the full analysis click here.