United Kingdom

The UK’s new government has an opportunity to rebuild the United Kingdom’s reputation as a climate leader. Any claims to leadership must be demonstrated by a new and ambitious NDC which aligns with 1.5ºC. However, ambition must also be paired with action. With credible policies covering only a third of the required reductions to meet the UK’s current 2030 target, the government needs to move fast in developing and implementing strengthened policies to achieve its climate goals. A significant increase in climate finance provision is also essential.

As the new government will take some time to introduce new targets, policies and delivery mechanisms, there have been few material changes to the UK’s emissions trends as of November 2024. As such, we have not re-assessed the UK’s climate rating, but provide the CAT’s perspective on what is needed from the new government’s climate action. We will continue to monitor the UK’s climate targets and action, responding to any major announcements and providing an updated rating in 2025.

The UK government has an opportunity to be the first developed country to have an NDC that aligns with global least cost pathways towards the 1.5°C limit in the Paris agreement. Its 2030 NDC is only 2% short of the level we calculate would be 1.5°C-consistent and the proposal put forward by the UK’s Climate Change Committee of an 81% reduction for 2035 would be just within the 1.5°C compatible range we estimate. This would be an important signal to the world, if backed up by credible policies to meet these goals and close the implementation gap inherited from the previous government.

The UK government has also sent an important signal to other industrialised countries by committing to end new oil and gas exploration licenses. This would be further enhanced by developing a fossil fuel phase out strategy for the country.

A 1.5ºC aligned NDC for the UK would involve steep cuts to emissions - at home, starting immediately. To align with modelled domestic pathways limiting warming to 1.5ºC, the UK would need to reduce emissions by at least 70% in 2030 and by at least 78% in 2035, below 1990 levels (and excluding LULUCF). The current 2030 target to cut emissions by 68% should therefore be slightly strengthened and combined with a clear commitment to accelerate emissions cuts post–2030.

However, the UK’s fair share of climate action goes far beyond what it does domestically as it needs to increase the climate finance it provides and mobilises for developing countries in order to facilitate substantial emission reductions internationally. To ensure it provides its fair share of the global effort needed to limit warming to 1.5ºC, the UK should:

1. Consider going beyond the minimum targets set by modelled domestic pathways. These pathways are based on global least-cost mitigation, and should be seen as a floor, not a ceiling of ambition. While cutting domestic emissions by more than 70% in 2030 may be challenging, it is possible to cut emissions more than 78% in 2035. The Climate Change Committee’s recommendation of an 81% cut by 2035 is a good start in moving beyond this minimum level, but further reductions could be feasible, and where possible, should be achieved.
2. Considerably upscale climate finance provision, to support emissions reductions in developing countries. The previous Government consistently underspent on climate finance and changed the definition of what constitutes climate finance in an attempt to meet the target. Meeting the GBP 11.6 bn pledge on climate finance by 2026 is a bare minimum for the UK’s climate finance reputation. A renewed commitment to climate finance from the UK is critical, particularly in the year of the new collective quantified goal (NCQG) on climate finance.

Adopt an ambitious NDC for both 2030 and 2035 which:

• goes beyond global least-cost pathways limiting warming to 1.5ºC,
• considers the UK’s fair share of climate action and
• sets out how the UK will support emissions reductions abroad through international support mechanisms.

This could mark a significant step back towards the table of climate leadership for the UK.

However, ambition will only make a difference if it is translated into action. Recent years saw a backtracking on climate action which will make it harder for the UK to reach its climate targets. While the UK marked a milestone in October 2024, with the end of the era of coal-fired power, emissions reductions outside the power sector have lagged behind the level needed and need urgent acceleration.

The new government has made a promising start in many areas. Lifting the ban on onshore wind and accelerating the deployment of renewables will be critical to achieving the government’s target of a clean power sector by 2030. Committing to end new oil and gas exploration licenses helps turn the UK’s fossil fuel supply policy in the right direction (although more needs to be done, and the UK should set out a clear path to phasing out oil and gas production in the UK in line with the Paris Agreement goals). There are also positive commitments around doubling funding for energy efficiency in buildings and other steps in the manifesto. However, much more needs to be done. There are a range of key policy actions that the UK could take to get back on track, including:

• Ramping up renewables. The government’s commitment to clean power needs to be backed by a laser-focus on delivery. The latest auction delivered record levels of renewables, including 5 GW of offshore wind. But this is not enough to achieve clean power by 2030 – more needs to be done. Grids and storage will also be key to the power sector transition.
• Accelerating electrification. Removing policy costs from electricity bills would help incentivise electrification and ensure that heat pumps truly cut consumer bills. Specific policies to incentivise industrial electrification are also needed, and planning barriers to heat pumps and electric vehicle charging points need to be removed.
• Reversing recent rollbacks. The previous government exempted 20% of houses from the fossil-fuelled boiler ban, and delayed the ban on petrol and diesel vehicle sales to 2035. The government should reverse these policy rollbacks.

The CAT rates each country’s targets and policies against (1) its fair share contribution to climate change mitigation considering a range of equity principles including responsibility, capability and equality, and (2) what is technically and economically feasible using modelled domestic pathways which in absence of a better method are based on global least-cost climate change mitigation pathways.

Comparing a country’s fair share ranges and modelled domestic pathways provides insights into which governments should provide climate finance and which should receive it. Developed countries with large responsibility for historical emissions and high per-capita emissions, must not only implement ambitious climate action domestically but must also support climate action in developing countries with lower historical responsibility, capability, and lower per-capita emissions.

NOTE: This update does not conduct a new rating of the UK’s climate targets, as the new government only took office in July 2024. Instead, it describes the context inherited by the new government and highlights key areas for improvement. We will respond to any major announcements and provide an updated rating for the UK in 2025.

The CAT rates the UK’s climate targets, policies and finance “Insufficient”. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that the UK’s climate policies and commitments need substantial improvements to be consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit.

The UK’s 2030 emissions target is not aligned with 1.5°C when compared to global least-cost modelled domestic pathways, produced by downscaling integrated assessment model (IAM) pathways to the country level. The UK’s target is therefore rated as "Almost Sufficient".

However, there is a significant gap between targets and current policy trajectories in the UK. Only a third of the emissions reductions needed to meet the UK’s 2030 target are covered by policies which use proven delivery mechanisms and have sufficient funding to support them. Significant delivery risks remain in many areas, and the UK’s policies and actions are still rated as "Insufficient".

Modelled domestic pathways alone also do not represent a fair emissions reduction pathway for the UK. When considering an equitable allocation of emission reductions across countries, the UK’s targets are far below what would represent a fair contribution. The UK’s climate finance commitments, which could bridge the gap towards a fair distribution of global effort in cutting emissions, are “Highly Insufficient” and need to be urgently increased.

Key measures required for the UK to improve its overall rating to "1.5°C Paris Agreement compatible" include:

• Providing a 2030 and 2035 NDC which fully aligns with modelled domestic pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5ºC.
• Introducing and implementing additional policies, funding and delivery mechanisms to achieve the UK’s climate targets.
• Substantially increasing international climate finance contributions, to ensure the UK is contributing its fair share to global climate mitigation efforts.

We rate the UK’s current policies until 2030 as “Insufficient”, a rating that indicates the UK’s climate policies and action need substantial improvements to be consistent with the 1.5°C temperature limit. If all countries were to follow the UK’s approach, warming would reach up to 3°C.

Key to rebuilding the UK’s reputation as a climate leader is a renewed focus on climate policy development. The final years of the previous government were marked by chronic delays in introducing new measures to slash emissions and an active weakening of key climate policies. The result was a vast chasm between the UK’s climate ambitions and any real-world action being taken to achieve them. Credible policies, clear timelines, appropriate funding, strategic thinking – all were sorely missing. In our previous assessment, the CAT highlighted that credible policies were in place to provide only 25 / 20% of the reductions needed to meet the UK’s 2030 / 2035 climate targets respectively. While in the remaining months of the previous administration, there were some very minor improvements in climate policy, this was not enough to noticeably change the UK’s policy context.

In July 2024, at the beginning of the new government, credible policies covered only 32 / 24% of the emissions reductions needed for the 2030 / 2035 targets respectively. This change would not be sufficient to improve the UK’s rating of policies and action from “Insufficient”. The new government needs to substantially accelerate policy development to improve this rating. The CAT will be monitoring climate policy development in the UK, and provide a revised rating in 2025.

The new government has highlighted that it wants to address this situation and close the implementation gap. It has already made a start on this, with some hopeful first signs including:

• In the power sector, where the government has set a target to achieve clean power by 2030. A decarbonised power sector by 2030 is a herculean endeavour, but would help unlock emissions cuts in other sectors, as clean electricity powers buildings, transport and industry. It would also demonstrate the viability of a clean power sector and rapid transition at scale, which could catalyse increased ambition in other countries and enable the UK to act as a global leader on power sector decarbonisation. To support this goal, the government has already lifted the de facto ban on onshore wind and secured record renewables capacity in the first auction after expanding the budget for renewables.
• In the buildings sector, the government has committed to double funding for energy efficiency improvements, has signalled a willingness to enforce minimum efficiency standards in rental properties (a policy that was removed by the previous government), and has announced guidance on the next tranche of funding for retrofitting.

In the area of fossil fuel supply, where the government has committed to banning new oil and gas exploration licenses.

However, this will not be enough to close the implementation gap. Much more will be needed, including the three main points mentioned above in the summary: ramping up renewables, accelerating electrification and reversing recent rollbacks.

The full analysis of the UK’s policies and action is here.

We rate the UK’s 2030 domestic emissions reduction target of at least 68% below 1990 levels as being "Almost Sufficient" to limit warming to 1.5°C, when compared to modelled domestic pathways. The “Almost Sufficient” rating indicates that the UK’s target in 2030 is not yet consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C but could be, with moderate improvements. If all countries were to follow the UK’s approach, warming could be held below—but not well below—2°C.

We rate the UK’s 2030 domestic emissions reduction target of at least 68% (incl. LULUCF) below 1990 levels as “Insufficient” when compared to its fair-share emissions allocation. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that the UK’s fair-share target in 2030 needs substantial improvement to be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C.

These improvements need to come in the form of greater ambition in reducing UK emissions, as well as additional financial support for emissions reductions in developing countries. This is because the UK’s fair share contribution requires reductions that go beyond the minimum level of emissions reductions required inside the UK, based on global least-cost mitigation (modelled domestic pathway).

If all countries followed the UK’s current approach, warming would reach up to 3°C.

The UK’s international public climate finance contributions are rated “Highly Insufficient.” The UK contributions to date have been far below its fair share, and the previous government’s decision to pit climate and development funding against one another is deeply regrettable. This needs to be addressed urgently. To improve its rating, the UK needs to increase climate finance substantially. At present, the UK’s climate finance is not sufficient to improve the fair share rating, and the CAT rates the UK’s overall fair share contribution as “Insufficient”.

In 2019, the UK enshrined its goal of net zero emissions by 2050 into law. In 2021, the UK submitted its Net Zero Strategy to the UNFCCC as a long-term strategy. The net zero target covers most elements, and most could be considered good practice, but some elements still remain undefined or lacking. In particular, a clear delineation of targets for emissions reductions and removals would improve the UK’s net zero rating. We evaluate the net zero target as: “Acceptable”.

For the full analysis click here.