To estimate current policy projections, we use the latest progress report from the UK’s Climate Change Committee (CCC 2023a). In this report, the CCC estimates the impact of current UK policies on emissions. Policies are ranked as ‘credible’, displaying ‘some risks’ to delivery, displaying ‘significant risks’ to delivery, or ‘insufficient’.
To calculate the upper range of the current policies trajectory, we take the impact of all credible policies. These are policies where there are proven delivery mechanisms, a credible combination of public/private financing and clear timelines in place. These emissions savings come predominantly from the zero-emissions vehicle mandate to drive EV sales and the renewable electricity supply policies in the power sector. To estimate the lower end of the current policy trajectory, we additionally include the impact of all policies ranked as displaying ‘some risks’. These include policies around home decarbonisation, industrial CCS, hydrogen, and also some policies in the transport and electricity supply sectors.
The CCC estimates that in 2030, there are credible policies to cut emissions by 42 MtCO2e, relative to the baseline. Policies with some risks to delivery could cut emissions by a further 51 MtCO2e in 2030. This gives an emissions level in 2030 (converting to AR4 GWPs and removing international aviation and shipping and LULUCF emissions, all of which are included in the CCC’s estimates) of 340-394 MtCO2e.
The calculations does not yet include the impacts of the U-turn policies announced in September 2023, as they are too vague to be quantified. However, this backtracking will only make it harder, not easier, for the UK to reduce emissions. Given these U-turns, and the fact that the UK seems to be moving in the wrong direction on climate policy development, we currently take the higher level (Current Policies Max) to rate the UK’s climate action. However, the UK’s overall rating would not be affected by using the lower end of the range either — in both cases it would be rated as “Insufficient”.
The conversion from AR5 to AR4 GWPs is done in the same way as when calculating the UK’s emissions targets, by calculating the ratio between AR5 and AR4 GWPs for 2021. Future LULUCF and international bunker emissions are taken from the UK’s Net Zero Strategy (UK Government 2022e).
Note: Our data download includes projections until 2035; however, our graphics display the data until 2030 only.