United Kingdom

In 2020, the UK updated its 2030 NDC to reduce GHG emissions by at least 68% below 1990 levels (including LULUCF and excluding international aviation and shipping). This is an increase on the previous target of a 57% reduction below 1990 levels. The UK also set a 2035 target to reduce emissions by 78% below 1990 levels including both LULUCF and international aviation and shipping. The CAT excludes both LULUCF and international aviation and shipping from its analysis. Converting to this basis, the UK’s targets are to reduce emissions by 68% and 82% below 1990 levels by 2030 and 2035 respectively.

In 2019, the UK increased the ambition of its 2050 target to net zero GHG emissions (UK Government 2019d).

*The CAT focuses on future emissions excluding LULUCF and international aviation and shipping (international bunker) emissions. The UK’s net zero target covers both LULUCF and international bunkers. The CCC’s path for reaching net zero by 2050 involves residual emissions of ~19 MtCO₂e from international bunkers, and also a 19 MtCO₂e sink from the LULUCF sector. These offset one another so that 2050 emissions remain at 0 MtCO₂e. However, this does not represent a target to reach absolute zero emissions, with residual emissions from aviation and other sectors balanced by removals from LULUCF and engineered CO₂ removal.

The UK does not intend to use market mechanisms and will achieve its NDC target through to domestic action alone. We rate its NDC target against both domestic and fairness metrics.

When compared against least cost modelled pathways which limit warming to 1.5°C, the UK’s target is rated as "Almost Sufficient". The “Almost sufficient” rating indicates that the UK’s domestic target in 2030 is not yet consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C but could be, with moderate improvements.

If all countries were to follow the UK’s approach, warming could be held below—but not well below—2°C.

This is a reduction of the UK’s NDC compared to the CAT's 2022 UK assessment, where we rated the UK’s target as 1.5°C compatible. This is because the CAT is now producing modelled domestic pathways via the latest global scenarios assessed by the IPCC’s AR6 report, rather than the older scenarios from the IPCC’s Special Report on 1.5°C.

The lack of progress in global emissions reductions in recent years is increasing the pressure on the emissions cuts needed by 2030. As a result, under the latest pathways, the UK’s emissions need to fall faster to align with 1.5°C, and the UK’s NDC (which was previously only just aligned with 1.5°C) has now been changed to "Almost Sufficient". This highlights the importance of aligning with 1.5°C in the most robust manner possible.

When compared against what would be a fair share of effort towards achieving the Paris Agreement goals, the UK’s NDC is rated as “Insufficient”. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that the UK’s NDC target in 2030 needs substantial improvements to be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C in a fair manner.

The UK’s target is at the least stringent end of what would be a fair share of global effort and is not consistent with the 1.5°C limit, unless other countries make much deeper reductions and comparably greater effort. If all countries were to follow the UK’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

The UK’s current NDC sets a target of 253 MtCO₂e/yr in 2030 (when expressed in AR4 GWPs excl. LULUCF). To improve its fair share rating, the UK would need to cut emissions by an additional 280–400 MtCO₂e, to reach negative GHG emissions by 2030. Some of these additional reductions can be achieved domestically, by cutting UK emissions to more than 68% below 1990 levels (WWF 2020). Where possible, the UK should seek to increase the ambition of its target to 70% and beyond.

Where further emissions reductions are not possible, the UK would need to support climate action in other countries, particularly through capacity building, technology transfer and climate finance. Without this, the UK cannot be seen to be aligned with the Paris Agreement’s commitment to reflect ‘equity and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities’ in climate action.

The UK’s international public climate finance contributions are rated “Highly insufficient.” The UK has committed to increase its provision of climate finance, but contributions to date have been very low compared to its fair share. To improve its rating the UK needs to substantially increase the level of its international climate finance contributions in the post-2020 period.

The UK’s reported contributions to financing emissions reductions abroad fall far short of its fair share contribution to the USD 100bn goal (which itself needs to be increased to at least USD 250bn if not more, to help drive the global energy transition (Pachauri et al 2022). On current contributions and historical trends therefore, the UK is rated as “highly insufficient”.

In 2019, the UK committed to doubling its climate finance provision from GBP 5.8 bn across 2016-2020 to GBP 11.6 bn across 2021–2026 (UK Government 2019c). However, in July 2021 it was revealed that this would not be new funding, and instead would be taken from the existing aid budget (Merrick 2021). This is in contradiction with a UN-brokered agreement that such funding would be ‘new and additional’ UNFCCC 2011).

The UK has also consistently underspent climate finance over 2021-2023 (Rowlatt 2023). This means that reaching the GBP 11.6 bn pledge by 2026 will require a very rapid increase in climate finance from 2024 onwards. At the same time, the UK’s overall aid budget was cut from 0.7% of GDP to 0.5% in 2021 (Wintour 2021), creating greater competition between climate finance and other development priorities. Internal government analysis suggests that UK would need to allocate over 80% of its aid budget to climate finance to meet the pledge by 2026 (Rowlatt 2023). Leaked memos also reveal that the UK has considered reducing its climate finance pledge (Horton and Greenfield 2023), although this has been disputed publicly.

Unless climate finance is treated as new and additional funding, the UK will either break its promises on climate finance, or drastically scale back support for other development priorities. By cutting the overall aid budget, pitting climate against development finance, and providing little clarity on the UK’s commitment to climate finance, the UK has gone from a perceived leader in the world of climate finance to a laggard.

Further information on how the CAT rates countries (against modelled domestic pathways and fair share) can be found here.

On 12 December 2020, the UK submitted its first updated NDC to the UNFCCC after leaving the European Union. This NDC committed the UK to reducing GHG emissions to 68% below 1990 levels by 2030. This represents a significant strengthening from the UK’s previous 2030 commitment, which was to reduce emissions by 57% below 1990 levels. The UK’s NDC is now aligned with its 2050 target of achieving net zero GHG emissions, according to analysis by the CCC (CCC 2020).

The UK’s NDC is not fully aligned with 1.5°C when compared to global least-cost modelled domestic pathways. This represents a reduction from previous CAT analyses, with the latest global pathways used in this assessment requiring the UK to make faster emissions cuts out to 2030 to align with 1.5°C. A further strengthening of the UK’s NDC is therefore necessary to align with least-cost modelled 1.5°C compatible domestic pathways. Strengthening the UK’s NDC would also better enable the UK to embody the principles of equity and common but differentiated responsibilities that are central to the Paris Agreement.

Analysis has shown that an emissions reductions target of up to 70% (CCC 2020) and towards 75% would be achievable (WWF 2020).

The UK revisited and updated its NDC on 23 September 2022 (UK Government 2022i). The UK did not strengthen the overall GHG emissions reductions target, as requested by the Glasgow Climate Pact agreed at COP26 under the UK’s presidency. It did, however, provide a range of additional information to increase clarity, transparency and understanding. This includes information on how the UK will deliver its NDC by 2030, how it will assess the NDC’s achievement, an update on the NDC’s territorial scope (which includes the Crown Territory of Jersey and Overseas Dependency of Gibraltar), and more information on how the UK’s climate targets relate to broader goals around gender, green skills, a just transition, biodiversity, health, air pollution and public engagement. However, without strengthening the level of ambition in its NDC and providing increased levels of climate finance to support emissions reductions in less wealthy countries, the UK will be unable to improve its rating on the Climate Action Tracker.

* Before September 2021, all CAT ratings were based exclusively on fair share and only assessed a country’s target.

Analysis of earlier NDC developments:

• 12.12.2020: UK submits ambitious NDC to UNFCCC
• 03.12.2020: UK announces NDC in advance of Climate Ambition Summit

We evaluate the net zero target as: “Acceptable”.

The UK has enshrined the net zero target by 2050 in law by way of revising and amending the Climate Change Act 2008 in 2019. The Net Zero Strategy released in October 2021 has been submitted to the UNFCCC as the UK’s updated long-term strategy.

The net zero target covers most key elements considered important by the CAT to enhance transparency, target architecture, and scope. The UK meets good practice for most of these benchmarks, but some elements remain undefined or lacking. For example, a clear commitment not to use reductions or removals outside of the UK, and providing separate targets for emissions reductions and removals would improve the target architecture of the UK’s net zero target.

The UK was the first major economy to establish and pass a legally binding target of net zero emissions by 2050 in 2019 (UK Government 2019d). The UK’s target covers all sectors and gases and includes emissions from international aviation and shipping. Excluding LULUCF and international aviation and shipping, this corresponds to 2050 emissions of 0 MtCO₂e/yr as existing residual emissions from agriculture and other sectors such as international aviation are being balanced by CO₂ removal from BECCS, DACCS and other approaches. For this reason, this does not represent a target to reach absolute zero emissions.

For the full analysis click here.