United Kingdom

In 2020, the UK updated its 2030 NDC to reduce GHG emissions by at least 68% below 1990 levels (including LULUCF and excluding international aviation and shipping). This is an increase on the previous target of a 57% reduction below 1990 levels. The UK also set a 2035 target to reduce emissions by 78% below 1990 levels including both LULUCF and international aviation and shipping. The CAT excludes both LULUCF and international aviation and shipping from its analysis. Converting to this basis, the UK’s targets are to reduce emissions by 68% and 82% below 1990 levels by 2030 and 2035 respectively.

In 2019, the UK increased the ambition of its 2050 target to net zero GHG emissions (UK Government, 2019d).

*The CAT focuses on future emissions excluding LULUCF and international aviation and shipping (international bunker) emissions. The UK’s net zero target covers both LULUCF and international bunkers. The CCC’s path for reaching net zero by 2050 involves residual emissions of ~19 MtCO₂e from international bunkers, and also a 19 MtCO₂e sink from the LULUCF sector. These offset one another so that 2050 emissions remain at 0 MtCO₂e. However, this does not represent a target to reach absolute zero emissions, with residual emissions from aviation and other sectors balanced by removals from LULUCF and engineered CO₂ removal.

2030 NDC targets

On 12 December 2020, the UK submitted its first updated NDC to the UNFCCC after leaving the European Union. This NDC commits the UK to reducing GHG emissions to 68% below 1990 levels by 2030. This represents a significant strengthening from the UK’s previous 2030 commitment, which was to reduce emissions by 57% below 1990 levels. The UK’s NDC is now aligned with its 2050 target of achieving net zero GHG emissions, according to analysis by the CCC (CCC, 2020).

The UK’s NDC is not fully aligned with 1.5°C when compared to global least-cost modelled domestic pathways. This represents a downgrade from previous CAT analyses (from 2022 and earlier), due to the use of more recent global pathways aligned with 1.5ºC. A further strengthening of the UK’s NDC is therefore necessary to align with the latest evidence coming from least-cost modelled 1.5°C compatible domestic pathways. Strengthening the UK’s NDC would also better enable the UK to embody the principles of equity and common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities that are central to the Paris Agreement.

Analysis has shown that an emissions reductions target of up to 70% (CCC, 2020) and towards 75% would be achievable (WWF, 2020). However, each day of delay makes achieving deep emission reductions much more challenging.

The UK revisited and updated its NDC on 23 September 2022 (Government of the UK, 2022). The UK did not strengthen the overall GHG emissions reductions target, as requested by the Glasgow Climate Pact agreed at COP26 under the UK’s presidency. It did, however, provide a range of additional information to increase clarity, transparency and understanding.

This includes information on how the UK will deliver its NDC by 2030, how it will assess the NDC’s achievement, an update on the NDC’s territorial scope (which includes the Crown Territory of Jersey and Overseas Dependency of Gibraltar), and more information on how the UK’s climate targets relate to broader goals around gender, green skills, a just transition, biodiversity, health, air pollution and public engagement.

However, without strengthening the level of ambition in its NDC and providing increased levels of climate finance to support emissions reductions in less wealthy countries, the UK will be unable to improve its rating on the Climate Action Tracker.

* Before September 2021, all CAT ratings were based exclusively on fair share and only assessed a country’s target.

Target development timeline & previous CAT analysis:

• 12.12.2020: UK submits ambitious NDC to UNFCCC
• 03.12.2020: UK announces NDC in advance of Climate Ambition Summit

NOTE: This update does not conduct a new rating of the UK’s climate targets, as the new government only entered power in July 2024. Instead, it describes the context inherited by the new government and highlights key areas for improvement. We will respond to any major announcements and provide an updated rating for the UK in 2025.

The CAT rates NDC targets against each country’s fair share contribution to global climate change mitigation, considering a range of equity principles including responsibility, capability, and equality. The CAT also rates NDC targets against indicative national emissions from global least-cost emissions pathways (called modelled domestic pathways). For assessing targets against the fair share, we consider both a country’s domestic emission reductions and any emissions it supports abroad through the use of market mechanisms or other ways of support, as relevant.

The UK does not intend to use market mechanisms and will achieve its NDC target through domestic action alone. We rate its NDC target against both modelled domestic pathways and fairness metrics.

When compared against least cost modelled pathways which limit warming to 1.5°C, the UK’s target is rated as "Almost Sufficient". The “Almost Sufficient” rating indicates that the UK’s domestic target in 2030 is not yet consistent with modelled domestic pathways limiting warming to 1.5°C but could be, with moderate improvements.

If all countries were to follow the UK’s approach, warming could be held below—but not well below—2°C.

This is a downgrade of the UK’s NDC compared to the CAT's 2022 UK assessment, where we rated the UK’s target as 1.5ºC compatible. This is because the CAT is now producing modelled domestic pathways via the latest global scenarios assessed by the IPCC’s AR6 report, rather than the older scenarios from the IPCC’s Special Report on 1.5ºC.

The lack of progress in global emissions reductions in recent years is increasing the pressure on the emissions cuts needed by 2030. As a result, under the latest pathways, the UK’s emissions need to fall faster to align with 1.5ºC, and the UK’s NDC (which was previously only just aligned with 1.5ºC) has now been downgraded to "Almost Sufficient". This highlights the importance of aligning with 1.5ºC in the most robust manner possible.

The CAT’s assessment of the UK’s total fair share contribution takes into account its emissions reduction target and its climate finance.

When compared against what would be a fair share of effort towards achieving the Paris Agreement goals, the UK’s NDC is rated as “Insufficient”. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that the UK’s NDC target in 2030 needs substantial improvements to be consistent with its fair share of global mitigation effort to limit warming to 1.5°C.

The UK’s target is at the least stringent end of what would be a fair share of global effort and is not consistent with the 1.5°C limit, unless other countries make much deeper reductions and comparably greater effort. If all countries were to follow the UK’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

The UK’s current NDC sets a target of 253 MtCO₂e/yr in 2030 (when expressed in AR4 GWPs excl. LULUCF). To improve its fair share rating, the UK would need to cut emissions by an additional 280–400 MtCO₂e, to reach negative GHG emissions by 2030. Some of these additional reductions can be achieved domestically, by cutting UK emissions to more than 68% below 1990 levels (WWF, 2020). Where possible, the UK should seek to increase the ambition of its 2030 target to 70% and beyond.

Where further emissions reductions are not possible, the UK would need to support climate action in other countries, particularly through capacity building, technology transfer and climate finance. Without this, the UK cannot be seen to be aligned with the Paris Agreement’s commitment to reflect ‘equity and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities’ in climate action.

The UK’s reported contributions to financing emission reductions abroad fall far short of its fair share (Gabbatiss, 2023) contribution to the USD 100 bn goal which itself needs to be increased substantially to help drive the global energy transition (Pachauri et al., 2022). On this (most important) metric, the UK is therefore rated as “Highly Insufficient”.

In 2019, the UK committed to doubling its climate finance provision from GBP 5.8 bn (USD 7.6 bn) across 2016–2020 to GBP 11.6 bn (USD 15.1 bn) across 2021–2026 (UK Government, 2019), which earns it an “Almost sufficient” rating for future commitments. However, in July 2021 it was revealed that this would not be new funding, and instead would be taken from the existing aid budget (Merrick, 2021). This is in contradiction with a UN-brokered agreement that such funding would be ‘new and additional’ (UNFCCC, 2011).

The UK has also consistently underspent climate finance over 2021–2023 (Rowlatt, 2023), and UK total climate finance provision fell from 2020/21 to 2022/23 (Gabbatiss, 2023). The previous government attempted to meet its target partly by further reclassifying existing aid spending as climate finance (FCDO, 2023). Such an approach is deeply regrettable.

The new UK government should aim to reclaim leadership in the area of climate finance by:

• Committing to reaching the GBP 11.6 bn goal across 2021–2026
• Resetting the rules on what constitutes climate finance to put the UK at the front of the pack in terms of tracking climate finance (rather than in the middle with other donors)
• Committing to an ambitious climate finance goal for post-2026

Further information on how the CAT rates countries (against modelled domestic pathways and fair share) can be found here.

We evaluate the net zero target as: “Acceptable”.

The UK has enshrined the net zero target by 2050 in law by revising and amending the Climate Change Act 2008 in 2019. The Net Zero Strategy released in October 2021 has been submitted to the UNFCCC as the UK’s updated long-term strategy.

The net zero target covers most key elements considered important by the CAT to enhance transparency, target architecture, and scope. The UK meets good practice for most of these benchmarks, but some elements remain undefined or lacking. For example, a clear commitment not to use reductions or removals outside of the UK, and providing separate targets for emissions reductions and removals would improve the target architecture of the UK’s net zero target.

The UK was the first major economy to establish and pass a legally binding target of net zero emissions by 2050 in 2019 (UK Government, 2019d). The UK’s target covers all sectors and gases and includes emissions from international aviation and shipping. Excluding LULUCF and international aviation and shipping, this corresponds to 2050 emissions of 0 MtCO₂e/yr as existing residual emissions from agriculture and other sectors such as international aviation are being balanced by CO₂ removal from BECCS, DACCS and other approaches. For this reason, this does not represent a target to reach absolute zero emissions.

For the full analysis click here.