USA

We evaluate the net zero target as: Average.

The Biden Administration submitted the US long-term strategy (LTS) to the UNFCCC in November 2021 (U.S. Department of State, 2021), officially committing the US to net zero emissions by 2050 at the latest. The net zero target covers all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, makes transparent assumptions on CO₂ removal by land-based and technology-based solutions, and specifies several key components for comprehensive planning.

The government has several avenues to improve the scope, target architecture and transparency of its net zero target. The government could include international aviation and shipping to its target coverage, and explicitly commit to reach net zero emissions within its own borders without any use of international offsets. The target itself could be enshrined in law in combination with adopting a legally binding review, revision, and reporting mechanism. The government further ought to explain how and why its net zero target is a fair contribution to the global goal of limiting warming to 1.5˚C above pre-industrial levels, and transparently address any existing gap between its net zero target and what would be a fair target.

The foreseen use of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the government’s plan is concerning given that CCS is not commercially viable due to its high additional costs and does not reduce the emissions to zero (Climate Action Tracker, 2023a). Modelling exercises examining a net zero power sector by 2035 highlight that under a variety of scenarios considering different technology options, fossil CCS plays a diminishing or no role at all (Denholm et al., 2022). While the strategy acknowledges the uncertainties around carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies, further emissions reductions efforts should be undertaken to reduce the significant amount of CDR required in the strategy: CDR should only be treated as a last-resort option.

Scope

• Target year – The US government is committed to reaching net zero emissions by 2050 at the latest (U.S. Department of State, 2021).
• Emissions coverage – The US net zero target includes all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (U.S. Department of State, 2021).
• International aviation and shipping – The US government deliberately excludes international aviation and shipping from its net zero target’s coverage (U.S. Department of State, 2021).
• Reductions or removals outside of own borders – The US government reserves its right to use international market mechanisms towards the achievement of this net zero goal (U.S. Department of State, 2021), even if it currently does not expect to do so.

Target architecture

• Legal status – The US government submitted its updated long-term strategy (LTS) including its net zero announcement to the UNFCCC in November 2021 (U.S. Department of State, 2021). The net zero target has not yet been enshrined in law as of November 2024.
• Separate reduction & removal targets – The US government does not provide separate emissions reductions and removal targets. However, the US provides projections on its use of direct air capture (DAC) and LULUCF in its LTS.
• Review process – The LTS specifies that progress toward the net zero target will be regularly assessed without providing further specific information on the envisioned process. The government has indicated that it may update the LTS in the future, but has not committed to any legally-binding revision process.

Transparency

• Carbon dioxide removal – The US government provides transparent assumptions and pathways on both natural sinks and technology-based CDR towards 2050 (U.S. Department of State, 2021). Land‑based sinks reach roughly 600–1,400 MtCO₂e in 2050, while technology-based CDR reaches roughly 300–500 MtCO₂e in 2050. On the latter, no detailed information is provided on storage capacities for captured carbon emissions, nor the combination of technologies envisioned to increase this sink. As the CAT’s net zero evaluations across all countries highlight, this represents a higher reliance on CDR compared to the average of the other G20 countries that are member of the Climate Neutrality Coalition: on average G20 countries have 5% residual emissions in the target year whereas the US include 8%-23% residual emissions in 2050 as a share of 2019 emissions.
• Comprehensive planning – The updated LTS presents multiple pathways and a set of transparent assumptions to reach net zero emissions by 2050 at the latest (U.S. Department of State, 2021). The government has outlined multiple measures and actions across different sectors, most prominently to fully decarbonise domestic electricity supply by 2035 (assuming a substantial increase of electricity generation capacity using fossil fuels equipped with CCS in 2050).
  • Other intermediate targets in the transport sector, for example, are to (1) increase the share of new zero-emissions light-duty cars sold in 2030 to 50% of total sales and to (2) produce 3 billion gallons of sustainable aviation fuel by 2030. The Inflation Reduction Act includes considerable provisions to advance and deploy renewable energy technologies, accelerate light-duty vehicle electrification, and promote sustainable aviation fuel production, amongst other measures to meet such outlined targets. However, the US, already the largest oil and gas producer in the world, also continues to increase its oil and gas extraction activities, and continues to approve large-scale oil and gas projects. The country accounts for over one-third of planned global expansion in oil and gas extraction between 2023 and 2050. This stands in stark contrast to the IEA’s NZE Scenario which clearly states that “no new long-lead time upstream oil and gas projects are needed”(IEA, 2023b). The government also announced that it would publish a ‘U.S. National Climate Strategy (NCS)’ alongside its LTS, which was meant to quantify the immediate, concrete policies and action needed to put the US on track to meet its 2030 NDC target. Three years later, however, this strategy has still not been made public.
  • The US government claims that the NDC target is fully aligned with pathways reaching net zero target. CAT estimates that to achieve the net zero target, total GHG emissions must continue decreasing by 5%-10% annually from NDC levels in 2030 until 2050, excl. LULUCF. The minimum bound of the range (i.e., 5% annual reduction) is consistent with the emissions reductions needed from today’s levels to meet the upper end of the NDC target by 2030.
• Clarity on fairness of target – The US government makes no reference to fairness or equity in the context of its net zero target.

The Climate Action Tracker has defined the following good practice for all ten key elements of net zero targets. Countries can refer to this good practice to design or enhance their net zero targets.